Sunday, January 31, 2016

In 2008, Rural Counties Had Less Caucus Goers Per Delegate

This is a rewrite of a post from 2007. 2008 turnout by county data was next to impossible to find, but Bleeding Heartland finally tracked it down. She did the legwork, I just did the math.

Since the Iowa Democratic caucuses are a representative democracy, not a straight one person one vote, not every caucus goer carries equal weight.  Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton and especially Martin O'Malley have spent a lot of time in small courthouse towns, because the way the results are counted, the small counties weigh in disproportionately.

An analysis of 2008 caucus attendance shows that, on average statewide, it took just under 96 people to elect a state delegate equivalent, up from 41 caucus goers per to elect a state delegate equivalent in 2004. But this year, unlike 2004, no place is more than double or less than half the state average.

Some counties are full of go-to-meeting activists while others have more rank and file voters.

The easiest place to elect a delegate was Osceola County, where it took 59.67 attendees per state delegate equivalent. The bottom ten is filled with small, rural, GOP leaning counties, with the curious exception of Clinton.

And once again, the hardest places to elect state delegates were campus counties. In Winneshiek, home to Decorah's Luther College, it took 138 people to elect a state delegate equivalent, 2.3 times as many as in Osceola. Johnson County, the hardest place to elect a delegate in 2004, is narrowly behind Winneshiek at 134 bodies per state delegate equivalent.

Put another way: A "vote" in Osceola County is worth more than twice as much as getting out a Luther undergrad.

But it's worth noting that with the turnout surge almost everywhere in 2008, the range between counties is narrower than it was in 2004. In that year  it took 79.2 people to elect a Johnson County delegate, nearly twice the state average and almost four times the level of Fremont County, where 22.3 caucus goers translated into a state delegate.

The top ten of hardest places to elect delegates were college counties including Story and Jefferson (Fairfield) and high growth suburban areas like Dallas and Warren counties. And, oddly, a couple of the most Republican places in the state, Page and Sioux counties. I didn't even think there WERE 743 Democrats in Sioux County.

High growth makes it harder to elect a delegate from your county. A voter who moved to Dallas County three years ago won't count in the county's presidential vote totals used to calculate delegates, because they voted somewhere else.  A voter who moved in after the gubernatorial election wouldn't count at all toward the delegate count.

The flip side is, people in shrinking rural counties who moved away or passed away still contribute to the county's delegate allocation, meaning it takes fewer LIVE bodies to win delegates..


The caucuses take place in a mythical, projected version of a general election voting population, because caucus apportionment is based on votes for the top of the ticket.  In 2008 the counts were based on votes for John Kerry in 2004 and Chet Culver in 2006; likewise this year's counts are based on Obama `12 and Jack Hatch. 

This means candidates can't run up the score with big wins in big counties, and it mutes the impact of isolated turnout waves.  Whether 30 students or 300 show up in Iowa City Precinct 5 (all dorms and frat houses), the same six delegates are at stake. 

Ultimately, the apportionment rules mean candidates have to carefully allocate their resources and fight on all fronts at once, and part of that allocation is making the effort where the most bang for the buck is available -- the small towns.


Rank County Attendance State Delegate Equivalent (2008) Attendees Per Delegate (2008)
1 Winneshiek 2347 17 138.06
2 Johnson 18362 137 134.03
3 Dallas 5000 39 128.21
4 Polk 44098 358 123.18
5 Story 9227 77 119.83
6 Jefferson 1722 15 114.80
7 Warren 4230 38 111.32
8 Audubon 542 5 108.40
9 Page 745 7 106.43
10 Sioux 732 7 104.57
11 Marion 2405 23 104.57
12 Decatur 627 6 104.50
13 Poweshiek 1735 17 102.06
14 Madison 1205 12 100.42
15 Boone 2390 24 99.58
16 Mills 694 7 99.14
17 Greene 786 8 98.25
18 Kossuth 1354 14 96.71
19 Carroll 1536 16 96.00
20 Muscatine 3069 32 95.91
21 Jasper 3282 35 93.77
22 Harrison 937 10 93.70
23 Cass 843 9 93.67
24 Des Moines 3761 41 91.73
25 Iowa 1184 13 91.08
26 Webster 2912 32 91.00
27 Henry 1273 14 90.93
28 Clayton 1453 16 90.81
29 Cedar 1451 16 90.69
30 Wapello 2784 31 89.81
31 Linn 18139 202 89.80
32 Scott 12552 142 88.39
33 Hamilton 1228 14 87.71
34 Washington 1393 16 87.06
35 Jackson 1738 20 86.90
36 Fayette 1557 18 86.50
37 Palo Alto 690 8 86.25
38 Marshall 2757 32 86.16
39 Guthrie 774 9 86.00
40 Pottawattamie 4723 55 85.87
41 Woodbury 5836 68 85.82
42 Montgomery 514 6 85.67
43 Adams 256 3 85.33
43 Bremer 1792 21 85.33
45 Grundy 679 8 84.88
46 Dubuque 7627 90 84.74
47 Adair 506 6 84.33
48 Sac 589 7 84.14
49 Fremont 419 5 83.80
50 Lee 2846 34 83.71
51 Mahaska 1070 13 82.31
52 Davis 492 6 82.00
53 Monona 655 8 81.88
54 Wayne 409 5 81.80
55 Plymouth 1063 13 81.77
56 Hardin 1144 14 81.71
57 Tama 1306 16 81.63
58 Floyd 1224 15 81.60
59 Buchanan 1626 20 81.30
60 Lyon 324 4 81.00
61 Jones 1451 18 80.61
62 Clay 963 12 80.25
63 Black Hawk 9382 117 80.19
64 Lucas 559 7 79.86
65 Buena Vista 954 12 79.50
65 Wright 795 10 79.50
67 Crawford 791 10 79.10
68 Appanoose 867 11 78.82
69 Union 706 9 78.44
70 Humboldt 548 7 78.29
71 Ida 391 5 78.20
72 Monroe 469 6 78.17
73 O'Brien 546 7 78.00
74 Allamakee 934 12 77.83
75 Dickinson 1082 14 77.29
76 Keokuk 614 8 76.75
77 Chickasaw 996 13 76.62
78 Pocahontas 455 6 75.83
79 Louisa 605 8 75.63
80 Van Buren 377 5 75.40
81 Delaware 1126 15 75.07
82 Benton 1723 23 74.91
83 Franklin 598 8 74.75
84 Cerro Gordo 3416 46 74.26
85 Worth 588 8 73.50
86 Ringgold 367 5 73.40
87 Winnebago 656 9 72.89
88 Calhoun 583 8 72.88
89 Shelby 575 8 71.88
90 Clarke 568 8 71.00
91 Howard 631 9 70.11
92 Clinton 3203 46 69.63
93 Cherokee 693 10 69.30
94 Hancock 618 9 68.67
95 Emmet 539 8 67.38
96 Mitchell 663 10 66.30
97 Butler 729 11 66.27
98 Taylor 318 5 63.60
99 Osceola 179 3 59.67
Total 239872 2500  - average 95.95
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Saturday, January 30, 2016

Poll Close, But Edge to Hillary

Factoid are flying faster than I can track at the moment, but my seat of the pants take on the below the topline stats in the Iowa Poll indicate that Hillary Clinton has the intangibles edge on Bernie Sanders for Monday.

The top line is close - Hillary 45, Bernie 42, with a 4 point margin. Remember that margins are bell curves - a two or four point Hillary lead is more likely than a 7 point Hillary lead or a one point Bernie lead.

Unanswered question: Is the poll weighted to account for delegate math? Or is it a percentage of voters? Because a percentage of voters is not the same as a percentage of state delegate equivalents, which is what Iowa Democrats report as the result.

Key points:

"Clinton leads Sanders among Democrats who say they will definitely hit caucus sites, while Sanders leads among Democrats who say they will probably caucus." Organization is what turns those Probablys into Definitelys - and Clinton has the organizational edge.


County caucus coordinator perspective: That benefits not running out of room and registration forms. (At this point, I care a LOT more about that than about who wins.)

With Sanders leading among new caucus goers, he needs to surf a turnout wave to  win. I'll know a lot about the state of the statewide race when I'm at my sign in table, as I live in a mostly student precinct in Iowa City, and if the wave hits, it hits me.



Either way the caucus winner will be clear at the sign in table before the caucus even convenes. But an important reminder: Doesn't matter if I have 50 people or 500 people show up, my precinct has a fixed six delegates. And if the Bernie turnout wave is concentrated in a few places, he gains relatively little.

And a couple subtle things tell me Team Bernie does not expect to pull this one out.

Two days before the 2008 caucus, Hillary Clinton was in Iowa City. The press flacks were spinning the concept than any result within a two point range was "a three way tie." And Clinton herself wrapped up her speech talking about people who couldn't caucus, troops and second shift workers.

So there's precedent: the candidate trailing in Iowa blames the process.

So is this about voter rights, certainly a worthy issue? Or is this a shot at the Iowa process?

One item is an item; two is a pattern. Note this deleted tweet from a Sanders staffer:



The article in question is the usual Iowa So White/Process Unfair mishmash that we hear this time of year, and concludes: "The Iowa caucus is an archaic political vestige that has no place in influencing our presidential politics as it does."

And there's App-O-Phobia, the worry in Bernieworld that because Microsoft developed the results reporting app, somehow the fix is in for Hilalry.

Look, as a desktop Linux user for eight years, and as the guy who inflicted the Linux Monday series on you my unfortunate readers, I hate Microsoft as much as anyone. But remember, this is a bipartisan thing, and there's no rational reason that either Microsoft or BOTH Iowa parties would risk their reputations, and risk First, on dodgy software.

So the groundwork  is being laid for a Blame The Process reaction to a narrow Iowa loss, and Sanders is still a favorite in New Hampshire, next door to his home state.

As for poor Martin O'Malley, his supporters best strategy would be going in with their second choice in mind, or figuring out their price at realignment time. My bet is a lot of county convention delegates - the usual offer in negotiations - will be O'Malley people under other labels.

Their odds may be better in the Hillary camp, full of experienced folks. They know how to make the offer, and they know how to put their own hands down, give up their own seat,  and become an alternate - because they know that alternates pretty much always get seated. The Bernie rookies, in contrast, understand less that caucus night is about the NUMBER, not about who the delegates are. They will be fighting hard to be delegates themselves and may be less willing to give a slot up.

Those county conventions aren't till March 12... by which time it's hard to imagine O'Malley still in the race.

On the Republican side;

I wonder how much the poll will have a Heisenberg Effect on the supporters of the people at 3% or less, and on Carson people. In a way, this poll is like a Republican first alignment, and only Trump, Rubio and Cruz are viable.

Predictions: Fiorina, Huckabee, and Santorum drop out Monday night. Kasich is out after New Hampshire. Carson stumbles along , a victim of his own direct mail consultants. And Rand Paul's support is indigestible, but may shrink as people cross over for Sanders.

At that point, the serious arm twisting of Jeb! and Christie begins, as the establishment win desperately tries to unite behind Rubio.



But at this point, things look really good for a narrow plurality win for The Donald.
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Wednesday, January 27, 2016

Making The Caucuses Happen, Part 2

I really meant for Part Two to get posted sooner.

Here's some of what's happened since Part One.

Countless candidate and surrogate events that I've completely ignored, though today I accidentally ran into Bowzer from Sha Na Na phone banking at Iowa City Hillary HQ, while I was showing around a professor from Japan.

I'm now averaging about 20 emails or other types of electronic messages an hour during normal waking hours. Remembering who contacted me through what medium and what they wanted is a challenge.

Feedback is primarily negative, but the people doing this stuff know, or SHOULD know, that going in.



Rumor 1: John Deeth is secretly for Bernie and deliberately scheduled the east side of Iowa City caucuses in bad locations to suppress the vote.

Rumor 2: John Deeth is secretly for Hillary and deliberately scheduled the west side of Iowa City caucuses in bad locations to suppress the vote.

The intricacies of a 114 location caucus plan, 57 precincts times two parties, are lost on a person who's mad they can't go to the school across the street. I'm at the point where I'm extremely grateful when I get a thank you for an answer that disappoints someone.

The day job has been good enough to let me work half time this week, though even it work it's caucus, caucus, caucus: "No, the parties already printed the list, you need to re-register there... Republican or Democrat? No, they're at different locations... No, there aren't any absentees, you have to go..."

Media interviews, local and national, are so frequent that I forget about them till my name pops up on my Google News alert and I remember, Oh, yeah, I did that.


At 2:43, right after Steve King and The Donald.

The last two Saturdays have been training and handing out packets. Along with more TV.


This was January 16, just a few hours before a took a brief, but ultimately heartbreaking, football break. With my Packers out, I'm rooting for Peyton Manning to go out on top. Ep-ic come-back starts right here.

We've tested that reporting app twice - the first worked out the kinks, the second fairly smooth

I've had three last minute chair replacements - two moves and one death in the family. While I was asleep I had a chair drop out and a replacement step up before I even knew about it.


The Johnson County Republicans and Democrats split the bill and did a joint publication of our locations, and we had a sit down together to write a joint press release. After that was published and sent, we had to send it again because of a last minute site change in Shueyville. My diligent chairs found a misunderstanding about time and space (Steven Hawking is working on that) and got us moved across the street.

We also have one caucus site with two addresses: There's been some confusion about Bella Sala in Tiffin. The place was recently annexed into the city limits and that has changed the street address. Google Maps has not caught up. The OFFICIAL address is 205 S Park Rd Tiffin. The prior address was 3232 Jasper Ave NW, Iowa City. It's the same place but it IS in Tiffin. Dems and Republicans are caucusing side by side there, with of course Dems on the left and Republicans on the right.

I know I'm forgetting something but that's my mantra these days,  I know I'm forgetting something. Someone always reminds me.
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Saturday, January 23, 2016

The Register Endorsement is About Sanders, Not Clinton

The important part of the Des Moines Register's Hillary Clinton endorsement was not the predictable recitation of her experience. We saw that before, eight years ago, when she also won the endorsement, and that and five bucks will buy you a latte in Iowa City and a third place finish.

No, the important part was the analysis and critique of Bernie Sanders.
Sanders admits that virtually all of his plans for reform have no chance of being approved by a Congress that bears any resemblance to the current crop of federal lawmakers. This is why, he says, voters can’t simply elect him president, but must instead spark a “political revolution.”

Easier said than done. Congress has the largest Republican majority since the 71st Congress of 1929-31.
A successful Sanders presidency would hinge on his ability to remake Washington in his own image. It’s almost inconceivable that such a transformation could take place, even with Democrats controlling both chambers of Congress.
This echoes the single biggest item I zoomed in on at the November debate at Drake.

Coming back from commercial, Sanders was asked, paraphrasing, how he would get his program through a Republican Congress. Bernie either avoided the question or, more accurately, rejected the premise. He argued that, again paraphrasing, that he would not HAVE to deal with a Republican Congress because the Bernie Political Revolution would sweep away GOP control.

Well, more fairly, he argued that was what he NEEDED and what SHOULD happen. And granted, if the landscape changes dramatically enough to elect Bernie Sanders, there would be at least some down-ballot impact. But he never quite answered what he would do if faced with a Republican Congress.

Between unequal population distribution - Democrats waste more votes in super-safe seats - and gerrymandering, are there 218 House districts that are winnable by a progressive Democrat? Or even by a Blue Dog?

And even if the House races are a sweep, Republican Senators elected in the 2014 wave like Joni Ernst stay in office till 2020.

This answer is in character for Sanders. But it rubs editorial boards the wrong way.

Editorial boards are the last bastion of bipartisanship and neutrality. They bemoan the polarization of the parties, and they have a deep fetish for working across the aisle.It's encoded in the DNA of the Objective Journalism Paradigm. I'll bet the beret that every member of the Register editorial board is registered No Party.

(Tangent: No, it's not "Independent." The legal term in Iowa is No Party. I've never understood why people cherish that word "independent." Parties are a place you go to meet people and have fun.)

Sanders, of course, has always been about breaking old paradigms. That's a source of his strength. But that also means he was never in serious consideration for that endorsement.

The real loser tonight is Martin O'Malley, brushed aside in just one sentence that was as obligatory as it was dismissive, as "better suited to a Cabinet-level job in a Clinton White House." And my take is always been: running AGAINST Hillary is EXACTLY the wrong path to her cabinet. Look to the surrogates who are carpeting the state in the last ten days. THAT'S the Clinton 45 cabinet. OK, maybe not Demi Lovato.

There's another down side to Sanders' rejection of the premise of working across the aisle. Many Democratic voters, especially political sophisticates like Iowa caucus goers, have reluctantly accepted the idea that the House will stay Republican till at least 2022. They see the White House as the one place in the system where Democrats have the advantage, the last firewall against total Republican control. Even the tiny handful of remaining ticket splitters, the ones worshipped by editorial boards, respond to the idea of a political balance of power. Republican Congress? Democratic president.

Of course, maybe part of Sanders strength is that many Democrats want the mirror image of the defiance the Republican Congress has shown President Obama. And maybe Sanders, put in the situation he won't let himself imagine, would provide that.

But it's not a picture editorial boards like.
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Tuesday, January 19, 2016

Green-Douglass, Dems Win With One Wing Tied Behind Backs

The Johnson County Democrats were not blindsided again, as nominee Lisa Green-Douglass handily won tonight's special election for the Board of Supervisors, with a 61-38% margin over non party candidate Chris Hoffman.

Turnout was, no nice way to put it, pitiful, with just 3295 voters. 3.8% isn't even a good beer. That's down from the already bad 6100 voters in the March 2013 special supervisor election won in a shock upset by Republican John Etheredge.

Democrats learned the lesson of that election and didn't take this for granted - some of the presidential campaigns pitched in with doorknocking. The Republican Party proper stayed out, which played a factor in the turnout drop.

Chris Hoffman ran a relatively content-free campaign, focused mostly on why political parties are bad, which fooled no one except some editorial boards who eat that shit up. The North Liberty council member seemed to focus most of his energy on that city, where he won a 75% landslide, yet Green-Douglass goes into the books as the first North Liberty supervisor (a rural Madison Township address) since maybe ever.

Green-Douglass rolled up a big 77% margin on absentees, and carried the Iowa City election day vote with 70%, losing only in new development precinct 10 (Trueblood) with very few voters and in Precinct 24 (Windsor Ridge). She even won the southwest side's precinct 8, where the Core 4 did poorly in November.

Coralville results were closer with a 53-46% Green-Douglass win. The rest of the county was all over the place. Green-Douglass struggled in the farm townships, as most courthouse Dems have in recent years.

The highest rural vote was in Newport Township, which Hoffman won with 69%. But the zero-development faction (more accurately, the "develop my area last so I can maximize the dollars when I finally do sell out" faction) gave Hoffman their protest votes, but nothing else. The names Rubright, Tulchin and Glasgow that wrote four figure checks to Etheredge to spite Terry Dahms in 2013 were absent from Hoffman's finance report.

The brief career of John Etheredge proved that trying to win a county wide general election on any ballot line other than the Democratic Party is an effort in futility. So an investment in Hoffman would have only been a short term strategy, and the Newport Gang is playing for the long term, which means saving their dollars for the June primary.

This election is just round one of the primary for the full term. Expect the nay-saying about the special election cost and tut-tutting about the low turnout to begin almost immediately, from a faction of Democrats who didn't lift a finger to boost that turnout or help Lisa. In effect, Lisa and the Democrats won with one wing tied behind their backs.


If anyone is to be blamed for the election cost, it should be Terrence Neuzil, who left town a year before his term ended for a higher paying job out of state. But instead, blame is likely to be aimed at Green-Douglass herself, and at perceived ally Rod Sullivan, who along with fellow incumbent Pat Harney will be on the decisive June 7 ballot.

The negativity is likely to be loudest from the camp of Kurt Friese, who along with Green-Douglass was gearing up for the primary when Neuzil resigned. (Also in the primary mix: Oaknoll exec director Pat Heiden - who was a registered Republican as recently as October and just became a Democrat this month after a brief transition as No Party.)


At the December 2 meeting of the vacancy committee, Friese supporters argued against an election and for an appointment, citing the length of the term and the cost of an election. After the committee decided for the election, Friese continued to argue against it in public in a misleading way, trying to meek it seem as if the decision had not already been finalized.

Friese then opted out of seeking the nomination at the December 16 Democratic convention. Depending on who you believe, he didn't want to cancel his vacation or he knew he didn't have the votes.

There are reasons you say in public, and then there are the real reasons, and one of their number made the mistake of admitting the real reasons they wanted an appointment.

Give her credit for the frankness: Caroline Dieterle argued at the December 2 meeting in favor of what she called "the Slockett rule," named for the former auditor who had a rigid policy of opposing the appointment of anyone who had lost a prior election. The invocation of the rule was clearly meant to exclude Green-Douglass, who finished a handful of votes behind Mike Carberry in the 2014 primary, from consideration, and by extension to force the appointment of Friese.

Well Tom Slockett, thank god, isn't the auditor anymore, Travis Weipert is, and Travis thinks having 3.81% of the voters decide, while not great, is better than having a three person committee decide. And Lisa Green-Douglass is off the loser list and on the winner list.
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Wednesday, January 13, 2016

Making The Caucuses Happen, Part 1

Most of you have noticed that the pace of posts here at the Deeth Blog has slowed to a crawl, or that you're seeing the beret at fewer and fewer events, or that I can't even keep up with the Twitterverse.

There's a really good reason for that, and I'm going to use a lot what little writing time I have between now and February 1 explaining.

Close to a year ago, I offered to organize the caucuses for the Johnson County Democrats. By "the caucuses" I don't mean the campaign events - I mean the rooms and the chairs and the logistics of making the caucuses themselves happen.

This is the first in X number of posts about what has to happen to make the caucuses happen and what's going on behind the scenes of the county parties. Other counties, please steal my ideas.

Almost no one outside Iowa, and not very many people IN Iowa, gets that the caucuses are NOT an election run by the election office. They are a meeting run by the political parties. And at the local level political parties are an almost entirely volunteer operation, without the permanent infrastructure or even temporary paid labor pool an auditor has.

I'm in a unique spot, as an auditor's staffer who's also organizing the caucuses. It's a lot like work except for the key difference that I get paid at work and I take vacation time to work on caucuses.

The biggest difference is the locations. Your caucus site is not necessarily your polling place and not necessarily the same place it was last time. (Also note that because of the early 2012 date, there have NEVER been presidential caucuses under the current precinct lines. In my county precincts were extensively re-drawn.)

Polling places are more or less permanent, with occasional moves. With the caucuses, you start from scratch each time. AND you need twice as many spots, because you have two separate parties caucusing at the same time - sometimes in the same building but often not. This is a particular crunch this year when, as in 2008, both parties have open contests.

The physical needs of the space are also different. In an election, people come and go all day and there are rarely more than a few people on site at once. You can set up in a lobby or a classroom and be OK.

At the caucuses, everyone is on site at the same time. That means everyone is going through the line at the same time, and everyone needs to stay in the same physical space, at least for a while. Longer if you're a Democrat. I assume most readers get the way the vote counting goes at caucuses. If not here's a bipartisan/nonpartisan thing I wrote at work that has safe neutral examples using dead presidents.

I started working on locations back in June. In many ways, Democrats were victims of our 2008 success, when the record crowds overwhelmed sites. My gut check is turnout will retreat some from that high water mark, but I've heard multiple reports that counties had more challenges setting locations this year because of the 2008 wave.

Public-funded facilities like schools and city halls are required by law to provide caucus space at no charge to the parties in presidential years. However, no one is required to cancel school events to provide space, and that cost us a couple sites.

One problem that didn't come up: In past years sites have been scheduled then had to get re-scheduled when other states broke the nomination calendar.

Most places sign out space first come first served. In past years there has been cross-party competition to score the best spots, but I took the opposite approach and partnered with the Johnson County GOP chair, Bill Keettel, and several of the other key GOP activists. My experience is: when it comes to running a good caucus and protecting First In The Nation, we're Iowans first and Republicans and Democrats second.

The Republicans and I had a couple long meetings with my county's biggest site host, the Iowa City School District, where we went building by building and divvied up sites based on turnout estimates. In other places we shared intelligence, leg work, and even reserved space for one another.


CHECK YOUR LOCATION. Democrats have a handy statewide site looker upper. Hopefully Republicans will make one similar soon.

A lot of our Johnson County caucuses are in different locations than the "traditional" site. Key examples that locals will know: There are no Democratic caucuses at Shimek, Lemme, Longfellow, West High, or Horace Mann. Some of these were space issues based on the 2008 turnout, and the district gave Republicans (who in Johnson County expect lower turnout) those sites. At West High, it was school events.

There are also no Democratic caucuses at the Iowa Memorial Union but I'm not supposed to talk about that.

Caucus goers, make a transportation plan. Parking will be at a premium pretty much everywhere. If you can walk or cab or bus, do that. We're calling cab companies and giving them a heads up to maybe have more people on hand. And carpool, Carpool, CARPOOL. 

As for rides, the candidate of your choice is your best bet. Based on the last couple cycles, a LOT of out of state volunteers will descend on the state and rides are a perfect task for them.

In addition to the sites, county parties also need to recruit the caucus chairs. "Temporary" chairs, technically, though they are almost always chosen as permanent chairs. (I got challenged in 2012 and I may be the only one.) It's harder in some ways for parties to find chairs than for auditors to get workers. For one thing, election workers get PAID while caucus chairs are volunteers.

Also, if there aren't enough workers living in a precinct, the auditor can hire someone from another precinct and they can vote absentee. At the caucuses, you can't do that. I've seen county chairs go out to the smallest rural precinct (in an uncontested year) and "chair" it (i.e. wait for no one to arrive.) They had to give up their vote to do that.

County parties are also competing with campaigns, who need their own precinct chairs to herd the cats for Bernie or Hillary or Marty. The campaigns have been very good at sending me help. If you have candidate commitments, you can still help sign people in. It'll be better for you, because smoother sign in means alignment starts faster. And one of the challenges of cat herding is keeping your people ON SITE until the delegate allocation is final.

We recruited our 57th and last chair last week. I was stuck in the 50s for a long time till a final push, then I bounced back and forth between 56 and 57 for a day as I lost and replaced two chairs. We're having a make-up training this weekend for the new recruits and folks who missed the state party's training, which was mostly done in the mid-fall.

We have a couple local traditions in Johnson County worth mentioning.

The "stuffing party" is where we add local materials to the state-provided packets - a few supplies, but most importantly the local nomination papers. (State party takes care of legislators and congressional types.) The local candidates are expected to make up the volunteer labor force.

We also have a "Unity Party" on caucus night. Precinct chairs turn in their stuff and we watch the results and speeches. It's a good tradition that focuses folks on the end goal of winning.

Don't really have a conclusion here, just watch for more of these.
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Wednesday, January 06, 2016

Make America Like Johnson County

Well, if Steve King wants to make America like Sioux County, I can want to make America more like Johnson County, am I right?

Sidebar tangent

Heck, we've just barely started turning Johnson County into Johnson County, with the swearing in this week of Mayor Jim Throgmorton (as called by Matt Hayek in the best political prediction since Bruce Braley accurately named the next Senate Judiciary chairman) and the rest of the Core Four progressive winners from November. 

The old guard holdovers of Dickens and Mims were pouting and posturing at the organizational meeting Monday, being political by denouncing things as being political. That's the pattern of the historic powers that be in Iowa City: whenever the left tries to change things, they're accused of "playing politics," whereas running things as they've been run forever to benefit the real estate developers and landlords is "working together."

They want their revenge and want it soon. The rumor mill says they're coming for it in the June supervisor primary and target number one is Rod Sullivan.

The message will no doubt be "we want to work with the city," which is ironic considering that the old city council was the problem in the first place. An even crueler irony if progressives, having finally taken control of the city council, would lose control of the Supervisors...

The action is in the primary of course; the brief career of John Etheredge reminded folks that a general election win under the GOP banner was too steep a climb.

Former council member Rick Dobyns was sounding an AWFUL lot like a candidate in his Press-Citizen exit interview. (Not the strongest pick: he lost a 2005 race, ran the failed 21 Bar campaign in 2007, only won in 2011 when his opponent didn't actually campaign, and lost in 2015. That's a lifetime .250, even worse than the second half of the Packer season.)

King may have used the line before (why not?) but the most recent context was introducing his presidential pick, Ted Cruz, today.

People razz on my county and call us The People's Republic of Johnson County, a term we've embraced with affection and pride. But Sioux County and the rest of the Dutch Reformed corner of northwest Iowa has no corresponding nickname even though they're WAY more red than we are blue.

Johnson County voted 66.57% for Obama in 2012, down a notch from the 70% of 2008.  But four northwest Iowa counties voted more than 70% Romney, with Sioux leading the pack at 83%. And that's in a LOSING year; Terry Branstad and Chuck Grassley regularly top 90.

It's unusual that the most Republican places in a state are more Republican than the most Democratic places are Democratic. And it's also unusual that places with significant populations are as Republican as northwest Iowa.

If you ever want to get into a massive time sink of numbers - and if you read me, than I know you do - go to Dave Liep's site US Election Atlas. You have to constantly remember that he uses the worldwide convention of red for left and blue for right, rather than the American red Republicans and blue Democrats, since he built the site long before the 2000 election which locked Red States and Blue States into the vocabulary. Which you can tell from the frame-based Netscape era layout.

But the data is priceless, and one of my favorites is his superlatives page for each presidential election.

Here's the highest percentage counties for each party in 2012:

Obama Romney
Shannon, SD 93.39% King, TX 95.86%
Bronx, NY 91.45% Madison, ID 93.29%
District of Columbia, DC 90.91% Sterling, TX 92.91%
Petersburg, VA 89.79% Franklin, ID 92.77%
Prince George's, MD 89.73% Roberts, TX 92.13%

They're pretty close to equally lopsided, but there all similarity ends.

The Bronx and DC you know. Prince George's County is the black majority inner suburbs of DC. Three large jurisdictions with a lot of votes. The independent city of Petersburg is 80% black. Shannon County is entirely reservation, and last year was renamed Oglala Lakota County.

The most Republican counties, in contrast, are all virtually empty, depopulated barrens of ranch country. Romney's 96% in King County netted him just 139 votes.

 Those trends continue just below the top levels, with lots of urban centers in the 70 to 80 range for Democrats, and lots of cattle voting 80% Romney.

You have to drop down a lot in percentage before you start seeing large suburban counties that contribute large actual numbers of Republican votes.

Next door in Wisconsin two counties voted more than two thirds for Romney: Ozaukee and Washington, the big suburban counties in racially polarized metro Milwaukee. Ozaukee was tops at 69.55 - but that was topped by Osceola, Lyon, O'Brien and Sioux in Iowa.

On the Democratic side, the top Obama county was Menominee at 86.5; it's all reservation ans statistically insignificant, as I recall the least populated county. The next biggest Obama margin was in Dane County. Madison is the Iowa City of Wisconsin, and Obama scored 71. Not far off from Iowa City, and college towns tend to top out at around 70% Democratic the way suburbs top out at 70% Republican.

Milwaukee was next at 67.5, below some other major cities. Milwaukee County has enough suburban turf that Scott Walker was able to get elected county executive a couple times, and Iowa doesn't really have a true metropolitan county to compare.

The larger point here is: In Wisconsin, as in most states, the most Democratic places are more Democratic than the most Republican places are Republican.  But in Iowa, that's reversed.

You look at similar counties to Sioux and Lyon in Wisconsin - mostly rural with a growing long commute/exurban influence - and they're in the mid to upper 50s for Republican percentage, and that''s true in a lot of other competitive states. That's nothing like the 70s and 80s you see in Lyon and Sioux.

That has all sorts of implications in both state and national politics, and mostly on the Republican side. Because the most conservative parts of Iowa are MORE conservative than most Republican areas, and especially because they're a particular kind of social conservative, you see presidential and state candidates focused in that direction. The most Democratic parts of Iowa, in contrast, don't leap out statistically in quite the same way.
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Thursday, December 31, 2015

2015 In Review Part 1: Top Ten Posts

New Year's Eve is a retrospective day for most politico-journalists. More so for me, because December 31 is also the day I launched this blog, 13 years ago.

This year's review is handicapped at the moment by some connectivity issues with Twitter - now my primary medium, though the blog is still important for long-form pieces - and by a nasty cough that's had me down the last couple days.

So while I struggle to grab my tweets for the year I'll review the year statistically rather than chronologically. And I'll do it in countdown format, because New Year's Eve is about the countdown.

I hate to use traffic as my metric, especially since my highest traffic post of all time was also one of my lamest. But this year I think the top posts are mostly a good indicator of what the regular readers are interested in.

11. Because this list goes to eleven. 2nd Annual Charity Beret Auction: The countdown starts out self-referential. Since I'm stuck with the beret as a trademark, I may as well do something good with it, and this year Peter Byler donated $211 to charity for a $2 hat.

10. Someone's Polling Dems in Iowa: I got surveyed on February 2 and posted details of the call. "My guess is someone in Hillaryworld is message-testing and looking for the best way not to run against Warren - because as much as I wish it I don't expect it - but rather for the best way to co-opt Warren's message and rhetoric, to fend off a challenge from the left."

9. Iowa City Council: Can't Wait For Election Day The big caucus stuff, like the debates and cattle calls, didn't show up high on the charts, because the real-time focus was on Twitter and because there were so many national people covering them. Instead, local posts got the traffic and this post is the prime example. It was one of the first articles anywhere that talked about a "Core Four" slate running in the Iowa City council election. 

8.  Patel Out in 1st CD: No major insights here, but I think people assumed I had the inside scoop on the news that Ravi Patel was withdrawing for the 1st Congressional District race in June.

7. A Meal With Martin O'Malley. One of only two caucus pieces to make the list - when you get a one on one with a candidate, even one polling in low single digits, you get readers. This was a lot of fun.

6. Former Council Member Steven Kanner Dies. A local story that got a lot of non-local traffic from people who knew Kanner after he left Iowa City when his term ended in early 2004. His name comes up in the next piece, too...

There's a BIG leap forward in traffic to the next tier of stories:

5. Core 4, Old Guard 0. My late election night number cruncher, analysis, and celebration of the epochal Core Four city council win.
"For the first time ever, the People's Republic of Johnson County has voted, in a city election, in a way that resembles the way we vote in general elections. And it's not just a win for the next four years. In a very big way, this is a permanent win for Iowa City progressives. Because the old guard lost something more important than Dobyns and Payne and Hayek's open seat today. They lost their scare tactic."
4. Split Decision In Iowa City School District. The same post only for school board - interesting that the school board vote got (slightly) more traffic than the more historically important city vote.

3. Hayek's Last Act. This was fun to write - and may have actually helped.
Hayek long ago chose the unnamed de facto party of traditional local Iowa City power, a party he was literally born into, over the Democratic Party. And in that unnamed party (ya gotta admit, Core Four is at least catchy), there's nowhere to go up from mayor.

So this city election, in which he is not seeking re-election, is likely to be Matt Hayek's last act in local politics. And he's chosen to go out with no class.

As he was in 2010, Hayek is the designated deliverer of the Scare The Townies message, a stink bomb dropped in Thursday morning's Press-Citizen... 
The lame duck mayor's ham-handed editorial backfired and was widely shared, along with rebuttal, to motivate the Core Four's supporters. Plus it's not every day you can use the mayor in a Scumbag Steve meme.

2. The Ministry Is Interfering At Hogwarts. It's a close race between the Core Four win and the Bruce Harreld hiring for Story Of The Year in Iowa City. I've backed down some since September, as I think Harreld's opponents are overplaying their hand by pouncing on little stuff rather than saving their ammo - sorry! gun reference! - for the first substantive fight.

But I still think political payback is the best explanation of the hire, and that "the Ministry is interfering at Hogwarts" the best analogy.

1. JJ Post Mortem. Bucking the local trend, the top post of the year is a caucus piece that drew some national pickup, and a lot of Bernie Sanders blowback, around this observation:
The image that sticks with me from last night is of Sanders supporters leaving after his speech, through O'Malley's and into Clinton's.

Sanders leaders are aware it was a bad optic, especially since Press Row was a peninsula surrounded on three sides by Team Bernie while the Clinton sections were on the other side.  They're trying to get word out that the early departure was forced by transportation, as the crowd was largely students who bused over. (A problem solved by paying the bus drivers whatever overtime was needed.) And fingers are pointed at the security check in, which pushed the start time back an hour.

But walking out on the other speakers is very telling...
One of the reasons I'm staying neutral is so I can make candid and fair assessments of all three campaigns. I'll keep doing so in person when possible for the next month, and from a distance for as long as the nomination race continues...
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Friday, December 18, 2015

Datapanik In The Year Zero

Here's what little smart stuff I can see in the middle of the shit storm:
  1. Everyone needs to calm the hell down before things blow up even worse. Bitter primary disputes lead to losing. Iowa veterans of Kerry and Dean in 2004, you know what I mean. STILL NEEDED
  2. This needs to get fixed and fixed fast - if possible, before the debate tomorrow night. DONE
  3. Team Bernie needs to be more upfront about what happened with the data and fully cooperate with internal investigations. PENDING
  4. The DNC and NGPVAN need to investigate fast - and I mean around the clock fast - and get Team Bernie back on line as soon as possible. DONE
  5. And yes, someone on Team Bernie needs to apologize to Team Hillary. NOT YET
  6. And Team Hillary needs to graciously accept, even though:
  7. Data that's taken is taken. There's no giving it back and no way to prove it hasn't been used. So Team Hillary has suffered damage that can never be made good.
  8. A ground campaign is dead in the water without its data. So Team Bernie has also suffered damage - a day and a half that can never be made up, and unless they got run on Thursday morning, there won't be any walk or call lists for this weekend.
  9. Even so, “we need the data that has been stolen by the DNC” is remarkable chutzpah from the campaign that did the stealing or looking or whatever it was in the first place.
  10. A simple version of why this matters: Two of the queries - and it's pretty clear there was some systematic work happening - were for strong and weak Hillary supporters respectively. You add the Sanders supporters Hillary has identified to your list of "ones," you cross the Hillary die hards off your call list and save hundreds of hours of calls - and use that time to call the weak supporters who might be persuadable.
  11. Weak Hillary supporters, you may need to turn off your phones for the next seven weeks. Even if Team Bernie didn't keep the data, Team Hillary will be trying to control the damage.
  12. Very very few people in the national press, and even fewer real world voters, understand any of this. But in the insular world of campaign organizing, this is a Where Were You When moment.
  13. Everyone needs to calm the hell down before things blow up even worse. 
  14. Try to look at facts without filtering them through your campaign's official line.
  15. The DNC probably needed to pull the plug, at least long enough to figure out what happened.
  16. But because of other issues - the debate schedule and her obvious preference for Clinton - Debbie Wasserman Schultz is mistrusted and hated in the other campaigns. (Also, for me, there's her foreign policy views that put parochial district pandering ahead of national interest.)
  17. So I doubt this is a Grand DWS conspiracy... 
  18. ...but I can totally see how someone could think that and I don't even blame them.
  19. Best analysis:
  20. The incident has also called into question Sanders' control over and engagement with the mechanics of his own campaign - he didn't know about the incident till  Debbie Wasserman Schultz told him.
  21. There's also some risk to damaging Sanders' Not Just Another Politician brand, depending on how the investigation turns out.
  22. Suing the DNC is a double edged sword. It reinforces support among Bernie's self styled outsiders...
  23. ... but "he's not really a Democrat" and "he won't do anything to help the down ballot candidates" are still live issues for a lot of near-left undecided Democratic activists. The near-left undecideds are where my county at least will get decided... and to these folks, suing the Democratic Party that you either did or didn't just join is terrible optics.
  24. And supporters talking about third parties because they've been locked out of data for 28 hours is even worse optics.
  25. Headline refers to.
  26. The argument that Sanders staff grabbed data to prove there had been a breach is analogous to the reporter who sneaks a fake bomb onto an airplane. It makes the point, but it's still a big no-no.
  27. And it's not a fake bomb. It's a real bomb that may or may not have been detonated. Give the techies a few hours to see if it's ticking.
  28. Everyone needs to calm the hell down before things blow up even worse.
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Tuesday, December 15, 2015

Howard Dean Retro Liveblog

This morning I joked that since Howard Dean is coming to town, I might go all 2003 retro and live-blog him rather than tweeting. Then I realized that the Republican debate will jam politico-journalism Twitter beyond usable capacity, so I decided to follow through.

Dean is, of course, not here in Iowa City on his own behalf. He's here for Hilalry Clinton - and while he'll no doubt try to stay on Clinton message, it's inevitable that the Vermont Factor will surface and the subject of Bernie Sanders will come up.

I'm going retro 2003 with my wardrobe. Found this in the back of the closet:

7:08 and we have about 50 people on hand eating pot luck and waiting for Howard Dean. A couple other folks have joined me in wearing Dean shirts (this is a retro endorsement of Dean and not an endorsement of Dean's 2016 endorsement, said Mr Neutral)

7:15 and Howard in the house! Dignataries on hand include Chris Tayor der burgermeiser of Swisher and the one and only Sue Dvorsky. (Mary Mascher was a late arrival)

7:26 and Dean is working the room - I was one of the first hands grabbed because of the shirt. Another arrival is Zach Wahls, who released his Hillary endorsement yesterday. That's a big deal in Johnson County, with young Iowans, and the LGBT vote.


7:35 and I'm cheating a little on the liveblog rules because it's the easiest way to get pics up fast. The tech has come a long way since 2003. Dean was on the front edge of tech in politics - Obama won with the Dean strategy and Hillary is running with it now. Hoping to chat with him about that.

Organizer drops a reference to 50 State Strategy #drink

Dean is on at 7:38. "This is almost like a Dean reunion," he says, with shout outs to Leshtz and Wahls (who tells me his first campaign event was a Dean rally when he was 13).

"I know something about Iowa politics and this is a first rate staff."

"I like Hillary a lot because she knows what the facts are. Right now there's a whole party that doesn't care what the facts are," he says referencing the GOP debate.

7:43 "Citizens United reversed the clause of the declaration of independence that says we are all created equal."

"There's only one person in this field who understands anything about foreign policy." Specified GOP field... but maybe a veiled reference to his fellow Vermonter? Dean points to today's terrorism speech that I have not had time to read about.

"The people who are most likely to help us are Muslim Americans." Says he speaks to students - they are more afraid of ISIS than the rest of America. "Who has a bigger investment in making sure ISIS goes away? We cannot turn 1.2 billion people against us by doing what Donald Trump is doing."

7:48 "None of those people on that Las Vegas stage are qualified to be president - not one."

Dean wraps up in just over 10 minutes. Leaves lots of mingling time.

8:47 and I'm home. The liveblog plan pretty much went to hell as soon as the prepared remarks were over. In my nostalgia I was mentally prepped for a longer speech and somehow I forgot that Dean is not the candidate. (I asked how old he would be in 2024: "Too old.")

So it was a mix and mingle event and Dean mixed and mingled at length with pretty much everyone, not leaving until the room was pretty much just down to staff.

He did have a few minutes for a couple more formalized questions with me. Dean very carefully avoided direct criticism  of Bernie Sanders and said they get along well. He said he chose Clinton because he had a more broad base of experience, again emphasizing foreign policy; clearly this is what the On Message message is 48 Days Pre Iowa.

Dean says Iowa and New Hampshire have an important role but that it was also important to add the diversity of South Carolina and Nevada to the early state mix (that happened in 2006 for 2008, during his tenure at the DNC). Dean also said the DNC needs to be more of an organizing committee and less of a re-election committee.

As for the debate schedule, which his DNC successor Debbie Wasserman Schultz has taken a lot of flak for, Dean said he agrees with limiting the number of debates, citing the Republican's self-inflicted damage from their 20-plus debate schedule in 2012. He disagrees, however, with barring candidates who participate in unsanctioned debates (like the Black and Brown Forum in Des Moines was supposed to be) from being in the official debates.
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Monday, December 14, 2015

Split Screen Organizing

I keep my Twitter feed going during my weekly football game. Mostly for the football talk...

...but I keep politically tuned in as well.

Around kickoff time yesterday I noticed a split screen battle in the Democratic race going on in my backyard.

Bernie Sanders was in Mt. Vernon, where he drew a crowd officially body-counted at 1100 people, with an intro by Linn County supervisor Brent Oleson (when he converted, he REALLY converted.)

Meanwhile in Iowa City, a Hilalry Clinton event had a full, if smaller, room, but no candidate.

(Not that Team H is neglecting the area, as Herself is in town Wednesday, and Howard Dean is here for Clinton tomorrow.)

This crowd was for a LONG precinct captain training, going over the nuts and bolts of caucus night.

So which crowd is a better indicator of strength, seven weeks out from caucus night?

Today's Register poll shows Clinton with a 48-39 lead over Sanders, with Clinton up 6 and Sanders up 2 since the last poll in October which included Joe Biden. Martin O'Malley, God bless him, is stuck at 4. (Those O'Malley second choices could matter: a delegate here, a delegate there...)

(Also, for the record, dead Register, I REALLY hate having to read a .pdf document in an embedded Scribd window.)

So is Sanders nearing the ceiling that lots of folks think he has? Hard to say - but nine points is close enough that late events and variable turnout can make a difference, and the Register poll indicates that Sanders has a strong edge among caucus rookies.

That's the challenge for Team Bernie. To get them counted, you have to get them there.

Here's a shot from a Sanders caucus training, also yesterday, reportedly in Davenport. This may not be indicative of the whole day - Team Hillary was social media-ing their events a lot more aggressively, though not as aggressively as Clay Matthews who sacked Cowboys backup quarterback Matt Cassell twice. 

And of course a lot of Team Bernie's energy was soaked up by the candidate event.

But there's been some grumbling from Team Bernie about the complexity of the caucus process for newcomers. That's one of the reasons I neutraled myself out. Somebody always walks into the caucuses feeling like they're gonna get screwed and not treated fairly. I know that - I was a Bill Bradley guy. So I'm keeeping all three teams in the loop in the process stuff. (Also: Neutrality means I can write frank assessments like this without people filtering it through who I endorsed.)


That said, grumbling about the rules is never a sign of caucus confidence. Hillary could tell you that, and did, a lot, in 2007. And I'm betting that at least some Bernie backers balk at checking that D on the voter registration form so they can caucus with the Democrats.

There's also a track record of difficulty getting Sanders supporters to show up at events OTHER than a personal candidate appearance. They can fill a big hall for him... but can they fill school gyms without him?

Here's an indicator that Team Bernie thinks their chances are better in next door New Hampshire, where independents can simply pick either party's primary.

It's ironic that the best bet for saving First In The Nation may be: Hillary  wins Iowa, rival wins New Hampshire, Hillary wins nomination, the reverse of how things played out in 2008.

In many other ways, Clinton is running from the Obama playbook of 2008. It wasn't just the fresh outsider energy that led Obama to his historic and crucial Iowa win - it was lots and lots and lots of field work. Sanders is doing that work, of course, but Clinton is doing it harder, bigger, and better.

At this point, caucus weeks are like dog years, and seven caucus weeks is a lifetime. But for THIS weekend, I'm guessing the organizer crowds are a better indicator than the candidate crowds.
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Tuesday, December 08, 2015

Mein Trumpf

Ya know, I think I prefer Donald Trump's speeches in the original German.

Yep, it's time for a repeal of Godwin's law, because nothing short of "fascist" captures the essence of Trump's proposal to bar all Muslims - even US citizens temporarily abroad - from entering the United States.

The Donald repeated his remarks to standing ovations last night, though it's not clear whether the crowd was chanting HEIL! or just SIEG! He did clarify that he would allow Muslim members of the US military to return home, a position modeled on Hindenburg's progressive policy of exempting Jewish war veterans from the first wave of Nazi laws.

Consider if you can these policy proposals:
4. Only those who are our fellow countrymen can become citizens. Only those who have (majority ethnic group) blood, regardless of creed, can be our countrymen. Hence no (member of specified minority religion) can be a countryman.

5. Those who are not citizens must live in (nation state X) as foreigners and must be subject to the law of aliens.

6. The right to choose the government and determine the laws of the State shall belong only to citizens. We therefore demand that no public office, of whatever nature, whether in the central government, the province, or the municipality, shall be held by anyone who is not a citizen.

7. We demand that the State shall above all undertake to ensure that every citizen shall have the possibility of living decently and earning a livelihood. If it should not be possible to feed the whole population, then non-citizens must be expelled from (nation state X).

8. Any further immigration of non-(majority ethnic group) must be prevented. We demand that all non-(majority ethnic group) who have entered (nation state X) since (tragic date in national history), shall be compelled to leave (nation state X) immediately.
24. We demand freedom for all religious faiths in the state, insofar as they do not endanger its existence or offend the moral and ethical sense of the (majority ethnic group) race. 

Pretty simple: Deny citizenship to an unpopular minority - and we're already talking about repealing 14th Amendment citizenship and railing against "anchor babies." Next step:  deny human rights to non-citizens.

And, just for fun, let's bash the media:
23. We demand that there be a legal campaign against those who propagate deliberate political lies and disseminate them through the press.
Losers.

These are, of course, from Adolf Hitler's 25 Point Nazi Party platform. But they're easily recognizable as mainstream points in American political debate today, and it's Donald Trump who put them there, shoving the Overton Window so far to the right that we can turn our head and see the Reichstag burning.

Mass deportation used to be only whispered, not openly discussed. Even Steve King only went so far as to imply it. Now it's been mainstreamed, and as MSNBC's Christopher Hayes noted yesterday. "Pretty soon 'not rounding people up' will be the moderate position." I think we're already there, and I'm expecting the Anschluss of Canada any day now.

Am I hysterical here? Well, we're living in a district where the lone Republican congressional candidate is openly talking about killing people. You know who else...

A small part of me wants to see the Republican Party sink with Trumpism. Let them lose a Goldwater landslide, let President Hillary or Bernie or Martin sweep in with a filibuster proof majority, fix some stuff, and appoint Supreme Court judges who will sit till 2050.

But a bigger part of me wants America to back away from the edge.

One of the best parts of working on the caucuses this year has been building my relationships with the local Republicans. I know they are better people than this.

It's simply not good for democracy to have one of two major parties with less than zero (see what I did there) appeal to large and growing segments of the population. The sooner Trumpism is stopped, the sooner we can regain a more functional political culture.
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Thursday, December 03, 2015

2nd Annual Charity Beret Auction

UPDATE DECEMBER 3: 
Congrats and thanks to Peter Byler of Iowa City, winner of the second annual charity beret auction. Peter sets a new record. Last year, caucus guro Dave Redlawsk and not yet school board member Chris Liebig tied and each won $210 berets.

Bidding stalled at $50 for several days till I sweetened the deal a little - I promised to throw in a Jimmy Carter button if the price hit $100. Soon after that the bidding war kicked in. Thanks to Mike Carberry for once again helping get that started; maybe next year he'll finally win. Laura Twing also helped inflate the price.

Original post November 17:

I never really wanted to be Beret Guy, you know.

It was supposed to be a one time joke, a play on use of "wear a lot of hats" as in play a lot of roles. I got a professional writing job and decided I needed a literal blogging hat. The readers voted, raspberry beret won. (I was lucky given what happened and given the other options.) I bought one. I wore it as a ONE TIME JOKE. The next day it was on Page One.

I was stuck. I tried to kill it; I was still stuck.

So I embraced it, and it became an accidental trademark. Yes, I know it looks goofy. But when the Vice President remembers Beret Guy, you're on to something.

Last year I decided to do some good with it. I've picked up a few spares over the years - always, as the song says, at a second hand store. I wear them in turn at events, to make them official game worn jerseys. And I popped one up on top of the county's mitten tree last year and auctioned it off.

Egomaniacal and attention-seeking? Maybe. But these days a writer has to self promote. And more importantly, it worked. The auction ended in a statistical tie, so I sold off TWO berets, that I paid about $2 a piece for, at $210 each for the Crisis Center of Johnson County.

With that good a track record, I better do it again. This year I'm upping my game.

This year I'm donating a beret and a press kit to the Johnson County Employee Charity Drive. Let's look at what you, yes YOU can have with your charitable donation. Top row, left to right:

Item 1 is a POLITICO note book. For the past several months I've been part of Politico's "Insider Caucus," a group of early state activists who make off the record comments and predictions. Sometimes we get it right, sometimes we (I mean me) predict Scott Walker will win it all.

The centerpiece of the package is the beret itself, with attached $2 price tag. I've worn it at many events and retired it on Saturday, when I wore it to cover the Democratic debate in Des Moines. Behind it you see the as yet incomplete Certificate of Authenticity, which will include photos of this beret in action at the November 14 debate.



At right to hold it all is a Face The Nation goodie bag that was picked up off either my chair or the floor at the debate filing room.

On the bottom row we have a VOTE button from debate co-sponsor Twitter, glow sticks (unused) from a Bernie Sanders rally, and a Hillary Clinton press pass from an Iowa City event.
Attesting to authenticity.

Republican bidders may, at their discretion, substitute a McCain-Palin press pass from 2008.

Bids are being taken through the Johnson County Employee Intranet, but I'll handle all outside bids for this one. Send me your bids by email (johndeethiowacityATgmail.com OR eeecontactATco.johnson.ia.us - subject line Silent Auction; Deeth Press Kit), Twitter direct message, Facebook message, phone or text. I'll update the leading bidder on the Deeth Blog home page (just below the exit sign). Bidding ends at noon November 30 December 3. Be generous!
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Supervisor Election January 19

Democrats to choose nominee December 16

Things moved fast Wednesday and Johnson County will go directly to a January 19 special election to fill Terrence Neuzil's soon to be vacant seat on the Board of Supervisors.

Democrats almost immediately scheduled a December 16 nominating convention, and two names surfaced even before the decision was made to hold an election. Lisa Green-Douglass, who narrowly lost the 2014 primary, and first time candidate Kurt Friese have already announced for the June 7 primary. (More on that confusion below.)

The three member committee charged with filling the vacancy - Treasurer Tom Kriz, Recorder Kim Painter and Auditor Travis Weipert - met for a half hour Wednesday morning and opted for an election, with Kriz dissenting and favoring appointment.

The vote followed a public feedback session that illustrated some of the Democratic divisions going into the abbreviated election cycle. I've been through six of these over the years, and I've seen a lot of people, myself included, on both sides of the appoint vs. elect dynamic depending on the circumstances.

Green-Douglass and Friese both attended the meeting, with Green-Douglass speaking in favor of election. Tom Carsner, who is chairing Friese's campaign, argued in favor of appointment.

More pointedly, Caroline Dieterle argued for appointment and in favor of something she called "the Slockett rule." Former auditor Tom Slockett had an absolute policy that he would not consider anyone for an appointment who had previously run and lost. The mention of the "Slockett rule" seemed aimed at Green-Douglass, who ran 126 votes behind Mike Carberry in the 2014 primary (she actually led in the election day vote, but lost on absentees).

By coincidence, the January 19 date parallels the 2010 special election calendar. Janelle Rettig was appointed to the Board October 31, 2009 following the death of Larry Meyers, but a Republican-led petition drive forced a special election. It was high-profile and contentious, but Rettig handily beat Republican Lori Cardella.

The Democratic convention nominee would seem to be the favorite - but that's not how it worked out in the March 2013 special election for the Board when Democrat Terry Dahms lost a shocking, low-turnout upset to John Etheredge, the first Republican to win a Johnson County supervisor race since 1958. Etheredge lost that seat to Carberry in the 2014 general election, and is not believed to be interested in running again.

The special election cycle overlaps with caucus season, the holidays, and most importantly the Hawkeye football team's improbable national title run. But that's just how Neuzil's life events worked out, as he landed a county manager job in Michigan a year before his term expired.

It also overlaps with the first stages of the June 7 primary season as well. Three supervisors are up in 2016 - Pat Harney, Rod Sullivan, and the soon to be former Neuzil seat (the resignation takes effect December 20). De facto announcements will be happening soon, as candidates traditionally pass nomination papers at the caucuses. Sullivan and Harney both seem likely to run, and Friese and Green-Douglass have announced.

The top three Democrats go into the November general election as heavy favorites. Even as a personally popular incumbent, Etheredge managed just 39% in 2014 with an R after his name.  Pushing against the straight ticket tide is even harder for a Republican in a presidential year.

The upcoming primary also affects the special election cycle and enforces at least a minimum of party unity. You could call that the "Sehr-Lacina rule." After losing at a convention in 1997, then-supervisor Steve Lacina ran as an independent in a special election for recorder, losing by 17 votes to appointee Deb Conger. Lacina then ran for the same job in the 1998 Democratic primary, but his special election defection from the party was an issue and he lost to Painter.

Similarly, in 1994 Don Sehr, a rural conservative Democrat, was appointed to a Board vacancy, but the more liberal, party-active Democrats petitioned for a special election. (Like I said about people being on both sides of the appoint vs. elect issue at different times.) Sehr lost the nomination at convention, and won the election as an independent. But two years later, that defection was still an issue, and he lost the 1996 primary to Jonathan Jordahl.

So if it still matters to primary voters a year or two later, it would be VERY awkward for a losing convention candidate to bolt the party in January to run as an independent, then immediately file as a Democrat in March for a June primary.

Green-Douglass has more or less kept running since the 2014 race, and seems likely to pursue the convention nomination. Friese got a somewhat later start, but has been testing the waters for a few months. His convention plans are less clear.

In contrast with recent complaints that Democrats have run too many Iowa City candidates, both Friese (Penn Township) and Green-Douglass (Madison Township) are rural residents.

The December 16 Democratic convention is from 5:30 to 8 p.m. at the Coralville library. The convention delegates are people who got elected at the off-cycle 2014 caucuses - another reason caucuses are important.

No word yet from the Republicans; independents can file with 250 signatures. The deadline is December 28.
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Tuesday, December 01, 2015

Loose Threads


12 days without a post may be some kind of modern Deeth Blog record. But contrary to rumor I'm still here; everyone needs a vacation sometime. Anyway I'm making up for it with two today.

I have little to say about Colorado Springs that I haven't said before or that someone else has already said better. I'm numb to the idea that Americans simply accept periodic mass murder (with the intervals seeming to be increasingly brief) as the price of a free society.(Buried that same day, the most American headline ever: "Mississippi man guns down Waffle House waitress after she asks him not to smoke.")

The First Amendment doesn't come with a trigger warning, kiddos:
The items listed here would have been a MUCH better answer than the rejecting the premise "I won't have to work with Republicans because Political Revolution #drink" answer he gave in the Iowa debate:
Credit where it's due to Joni Ernst for retiring from the National Guard. I doubt it was because of my post a year ago, but post-election I noted:
Your continued personal military service at this point is largely symbolic, more about maintaining that public persona than about actually defending the country.  You have a new role in public service, a different role in defending the country.

You'll be on the Armed Services Committee and the Homeland Security Committee (along with Agriculture and Small Business). The best thing you can do for the country is to be at those meetings, and to be on the floor casting votes to represent us three million Iowans.  Yes, even though those votes will mostly be the opposite of what I want.
People kicking Dave Loebsack's teeth in over the Syrian refugee vote need to remember that the alternative to Dave is NOT Dennis Kucinich. THIS is the alternative:
For border security, Chelgren believes a fence would define the border and control who enters and leaves. If one is found to have crossed into the country illegally, committed a felony while here, then been deported, he supports executing that individual if they break America's immigration laws a second time.
Way to bury the lede there, Journal Express.

Chickenman also wants to require drug tests for child support - not "welfare," child support -  thinks professors should be evaluated ONLY on student feedback, and likes to ride RAGBRAI naked. So if you want to "withhold support" for Loebsack because of a too-timid vote, you risk getting the real thing.

Still seeking a term for blood red Sioux County that corresponds to People's Republic of Johnson County without breaking Godwin's Law.


The Gazette's Lee Hermiston wins Best Lede Of The Month and it's only the 1st: "Brandon Wilson just can’t stop hiding drugs in his rectum." Which gives new meaning to the term "crack cocaine."

And bids on the beret end at noon Thursday with the current price at $50. I'll accept bids via any method of communication. It's hardly Ringo Starr's personal copy number 0000001 of the White Album, but it's still collectible.
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Clinton Caucus Complaints Simmered Till At Least 2012

It's a lot to read into one line, and the context is clearly a critique of the state of the Republican race in January 2012. The word "Iowa" does not appear.

But in yesterday's batch of Hillary Clinton emails, this one stood out:



Three weeks after the 2012 caucuses, and more importantly four years and three weeks after her third place finish in the 2008 caucuses, Clinton is still a caucus critic.

I spent years obsessing over the blind quotes in Mark Halperin's Game Change, in which Hilary was quoted as asking "how many times do I have to talk to the same people?!?" and Bill Clinton is cited as charging the Obama campaign with caucus fraud. I reported the softer critiques made in public even before caucus night 2008. I've been told not to pass judgement on things people say in the moment of defeat, to focus on Now rather than Then, and asked nicely to let it go.

But it's out there again, and "Then" just got four years closer to the present. The offhand comment is consistent with all the past criticism.

It may be the wrong thing to ask, and may be the ultimate obsession of a spoiled Iowan. But I have yet to hear Hillary Clinton make a direct reference, positive or even negative, to Iowa as First In The Nation or to the Iowa caucuses as a process. There are references to the date, and asks to get out and caucus, but never a reference to Iowa's place in the process.

In fairness, Bernie Sanders isn't saying those things either (the only Democratic candidate with a deep connection to Iowa as First In The Nation is that old Gary Hart field staffer, Martin O'Malley). But Sanders doesn't have a track record of attacking caucuses as a process.

And Hillary 2016 is not Hillary 2008. The Clinton campaign seems to be working from the Obama 2008 playbook. On the staffing and organizational level, the commitment to caucuses is clear. Here in the People's Republic, you see lots of Bernie signs and t-shirts. But from my front row seat in the auditor's office, it's Team Hillary that's bringing in the voter registrations (presumably with commit cards back at HQ).

Clinton also has an overwhelming share of support from the core of elected officials and party activists, the kinds of folks who care about First, than she had in 2008 when those endorsements were splintered.

(UPDATE: She must have read this post because Hillary just announced visits to Ft. Dodge and Sioux City on Friday.)

All that's very good. But none of that is in the candidate's own words. Given the negative track record on the subject, it would be nice to hear an explicit, public Iowa Stays First from Hillary Clinton herself.

The irony is that the Iowa caucuses could play the role in strengthening Clinton's candidacy that the New Hampshire primary did in 2008. Given current polling it's very easy to see a scenario where Hillary wins Iowa, Bernie wins next door New Hampshire, and then Hillary sweeps through the South and de facto clinches the nomination Super Tuesday.

If that plays out and she wins, it puts President Clinton 45 (to distinguish from Bill H.W. Clinton) in command of the Democratic Party structure and process for 2020. Question is: when she thinks of Iowa, will she think of 2016... or 2008?
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