McGinness Top School Spender

McGinness Top School Spender

Only three of the record-size ten candidate field for a record five Iowa City school board seats up in Tuesday's election raised or spent more than the $750 campaign finance filing threshold.

Jeff McGinness (report) was the top fundraiser, taking in $3035 and spending almost all of it. The bulk of the money ($1981) went to QC-based political consultant Victory Enterprises, for the omnipresent yard signs that have been up since July. (Update: Jeff notes in comments that the Victory Enterprises bill included mailings; the report itself simply said "Printing & Reproduction."). And yes, local wrestling celebrities show up on the donor list.

Sally Hoelscher (report) took in $2300 and, once unpaid bills are figured in, is in the red. She appears to have done a couple of mailings in addition to signs (though this every election voter didn't get a mailer from her or from ANY candidate.)

The other candidate to top the $750 mark was Karla Cook in the two year race, who took in $870 (report). $504 went to signs and the rest was still on hand.

The only other report came from incumbent Patti Fields. Her account had $349 left over from last time and she raised another 75 bucks. No word from Jeff Alden, Phil Hemingway, Bob Porter, Marla Swesey or Jim Tate for the full term or Julie Van Dyke for the two year. I've spotted yard signs for all but Alden (Hemingway's are home made).

UI Pressure on Patel?

UI Pressure on Patel?

Developments today in the city council race, but only one fact is agreed upon: city council candidate Raj Patel has resigned as nonvoting UI student government liaison to the city council.

After that, the stories are about as polarized as last year's results on the bar vote. It's playing out in a thrice-revised Press-Citizen piece and in the comments thread.

“Technically I resigned from student government, but I felt it was the only I thing I could do,” Patel said. “I was cornered. … I felt what they had done to me made it impossible to stay in that organization.”

The Official (TM) issue is an alleged "conflict of interest" between Patel's roles as liaison and as candidate. But as noted in the comments, "Anyone running for re-election simultaneously sits on the council and campaigns." (At press time, Mayor Hayek's resignation was not on the table.)

Patel campaign manager Michael Charles was direct:

“He really wanted to continue as city liaison, and it was in his interests and his intention to do that,” Charles said. “However, it had been made impossible to him — he was given an ultimatum by student government that he was going to have to take a leave of absence or he would resign. He had two options.”

Charles said the UISG executive council told Patel that there were legal conflicts of interest in serving as liaison and running for council, and that UISG was feeling pressure from UI administration.

The comments were even more direct:

Word on the street over the weekend was that (UI Vice President of Student Services) Tom Rocklin was trying to force Patel out of the student liaison position, and was leaning on the UISG president to help.

The denial from Rocklin:

“My response was that it was an important issue for them to consider, and they should act within their own governance documents and their own sense for what was appropriate,” Rocklin said Monday. “I really took no stand, and I still don’t have any particular position on it. It’s a student government matter.”

A nice pose of indifference, as required.

A denial from the UISG president, but is it a plausible denial? "Higgins said the suggestion of a leave came from UISG alone and that any talk of pressure from UI administrators is unfounded." If there's pressure, isn't there also pressure to say there's not pressure?

The problem with the "conflict of interest" argument is that the same exact situation came up two years ago. Student liaison Jeff Shipley ran for the council -- and served throughout his campaign, after his loss, and till his graduation at the end of the 2010 school year. Doesn't that, um, set a precedent?

Higgins said while the UISG administration two years ago “must have felt Shipley could have handled both responsibilities,” he and the current executive council want the liaison to be focused solely on that post.

Yeah. Riiiight. But consider some other factoids which Iowa Citians know well.

Jeff Shipley was never a real threat to win the 2009 election. He couldn't expand his support beyond campus, and turnout was abysmal.

After that election, two pro-21 council members, Terry Dickens and Susan Mims, replaced two anti-21s, and two council members flipped: Connie Champion from 19 to 21 and Matt Hayek from "I'll accept the voters decision" in 2007 to "I don't like what the voters decided" in 2010.

So we had a do-over in 2010, with the University all-in this time and Tom Rocklin as their point man on the "21 Makes Sense" (sic) committee. Raj Patel was one of the leaders of the pro-19 YESS committee. Some bad blood there, mayhaps? A gem from the comments: "At minimum this is another example of treating adult University students like children."

Also in the comments: fellow candidate Steve Soboroff. "Raj Patel is more than qualified to serve on council. He's very bright and up on all the issues. We need to keep University officials out of OUR town politics." Soboroff is not opposing Patel; he's running in the District A race against Rick Dobyns, the leading backer of the 21 side in the 2007 election. Patel is in the at-large contest with six other candidates including Hayek.

Which version makes more sense to you: the UISG president saying "it was voluntary, really, really" as the administration peers over his shoulder, or Raj saying he was squeezed out? Scaring The Powers That Be is one more sign that Patel is looking like a live round to possibly be the first student to win a city council race in 32 years. Stay tuned -- this oughta be good tomorrow.

The Latest Hillary Denial

The Latest Hillary Denial

At this point in 2003, nobody would have pegged an Illinois state legislator who's bombed badly in a congressional primary challenge as the next president. (We all figured 2008 was gonna be President Dean's re-election bid.)

But amidst all the GOP polling it's a fun sidebar to look at some potential 2016 Democrats, and Hillary Clinton is way out front:

57% of Democrats in (South Carolina) say she'd be their first choice for the party nominee in 2016. She's followed by Joe Biden at 23%, Andrew Cuomo at 5%, Deval Patrick at 2%, Russ Feingold and Mark Warner at 1%, and Kirsten Gillibrand and Brian Schweitzer at 0%.

We've done similar polls in Iowa (where Clinton was at 44% to 13% for Biden and no one else in doublt digits) and New Hampshire (where Clinton was at 52% to 16% for Biden and no one else in double digits.) It's clear at this point that if Clinton decided to run she would start out as the overwhelming favorite for the Democratic nomination. Of course that was the case in 2008 too which is why these early polls are fun but not terribly predictive.

Of course, pundits and Republicans like to stir the pot because a destructive 2012 primary challenge would be a great story. Hillary is still making Sherman Statements:

"Secretary of State Hillary Clinton says there is a 'below zero' chance that she will challenge President Barack Obama for the presidency in 2012."

"I am not interested in being drawn back into it [politics] by anybody," said Clinton.

In the past, Clinton has also indicated that she would like secretary of state to be last her job in government.

I buy the first part but not the last. She leaves State sometime in early `14, campaigns for congressional candidates nationwide that fall, then gets back into the ball game.

Rematch in Ft. Dodge House Race

Rematch in Ft. Dodge House Race

Fort Dodge Republican Matt Alcazar has announced a second try for the Iowa House, challenging Rep. Helen Miller in House District 9.

This was one of those Some Dude near-miss races that was on nobody's radar last cycle. Miller had won easily since her first win in 2002, with a typical 60% in 2008. Alcazar had initially announced as a tea-flavored independent before switching and filing on the Republican line. But amid the zeitgeist of 2010 he almost pulled it off, holding Miller to 52%.

The lines change very little in redistricting, as Fort Dodge's population is in The District Draws Itself range: An ideal House district size is 30,538, and the Fort Dodge census population is 25,206, about 5/6 of that. The entire old district stays in the new and three townships are added to balance the population. Under the new lines, Democrats had an April registration edge of about 2400. Not completely unwinnable for the GOP, but Alcazar's 2010 performance is probably close to the high water mark.

Bacon Makes Senate to House Move

Bacon Makes Senate to House Move

Musical chairs in north central Iowa as freshman Senator Rob Bacon gets out of a pair-up with fellow Republican Bill Dix by running for the House -- and facing the same former senator he knocked off in 2010.

The matchup between Bacon and Democrat Rich Olive will take place in House District 48, which on Map Day was home to Democrat Lisa Heddens in a My District Not My House situation. Heddens has decamped to House 46 in the city of Ames proper.

UPDATE October 7: Olive is out.

This happens at least once every redistricting cycle: a sitting senator gets paired up and runs for the House instead. Three Republicans did it in 2002: Mary Lou Freeman, Gene Maddox, and Sandy Greiner. Whether that's a step up or a step down depends on whether you ask a senator or a representative. Let's put it this way: Greiner jumped at a chance to move back to the Senate in 2010.

Bacon will have to move into House 48, though he had some of the same turf in 2010. He also has to give up the last two years of the Senate term. If neither Bacon or Dix had quit or moved, their terms would have been cut short and the two would have faced off in a primary.

But as a consolation prize, his rollout Thursday was impressive. Check this rogue's gallery:

Also in attendance were Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey; Iowa Senate Majority Leader Linda Upmeyer; Rep. Stewart Iverson Jr., R-Dows; Sen. Jerry Behn, R-Boone, and Rep. Dave Deyoe, R-Nevada.

(Hey, Stew: when are you finally gonna make that Senate announcement?)

In retrospect it's clear Bill Dix was the 800 pound gorilla here. Dix, also elected to the Senate in 2010, now gets to hold over in Senate District 25 until 2014. At that time he may have higher ambitions. So I hear.

So how about the Olive-Bacon rematch itself? The old Senate district had a GOP registration edge of 3290. Olive won by 61 votes in the Democratic wave of 2006; Bacon won handily last year. But the new turf only has a Republican edge (as of April) of 454, which Olive could overcome.

Hamilton County makes up about half of this district. That was home base for two-term Democrat McKinley Bailey, who lost to Iverson in 2010. The new seat also includes parts of rural Boone County, southeast Webster County and a little corner of Story, going all the way up to the Ames city limits.

Also noted: Democrat Sara Sedlacek's announcement in House 88 seems to have spurred the GOP incumbent, Tom Sands, into announcing his own re-election bid. And TheIowaRepublican talks to Annette Sweeney about her überprimary against Pat Grassley.

School Endorsement Roundup

School Board Endorsement Roundup

Still looking for clues in that ten candidate, five seat, two separate contest Iowa City School Board election? It's endorsement season and the Press-Citizen opinion page is packed with letters.


The paper's own nod goes to Marla Swesey, Jeff McGinness, Sally Hoelscher and Bob Porter, with Karla Cook for the two-year term.

The Iowa City Federation of Labor weighs in for Jim Tate, Patti Fields, Jeff McGinness and Robert Porter (no nod for the two-year) and for good measure Jeremiah Sinnwell in Solon.

Also on the labor front, the Iowa City Education Association endorses Marla Swesey, Patti Fields, Bob Porter and Phil Hemingway for the four-year seats and Karla Cook for the two-year seat.

State Rep. Mary Mascher is supporting Fields and Swesey.

So none of that clears things up much... except that Jeff Alden appears to be an odd man out.

Bachmann In The Mosh Pit

Bachmann In The Mosh Pit

Michael Moore, Steve King is paging you:

In the wake of criticism about Michele Bachmann’s “rock star attitude,” her pal Steve King today said she needs to change how she campaigns in Iowa.

“My advice would be to her is: Just dive right into the mosh pit and go out there and campaign and be yourself,” King, a GOP congressman from western Iowa, said on ABC’s “Top Line” today.

Which gives me an excuse to jump in the Wayback Machine to 1999 and one of the Greatest. Caucus. Moments. Ever.



Somehow I don't see the candidate who refuses to be photographed in casual clothes taking the great leap of faith into the mosh pit. Gary Johnson, maybe.

C-SPAN's Losers Who Changed History

C-SPAN's "The Contenders" Looks at Losers Who Changed History

I missed last night's debate but speaking of losers, I've long wished for a followup to Irving Stone's "They Also Ran," a collection of biographies of defeated presidential candidates. And I have a strange idea of what's Must See TV, but if you're a regular reader of this blog you might, too.

My wishes have come true with "The Contenders," a new C-SPAN series airing Fridays at 7 (Iowa time) profiling 14 defeated candidates: five Democrats, five Republicans, a Whig and three from third parties. Half are from after the 1943 publication of "They Also Ran," and one of the earlier candidates was not included as Stone only looked at major party contenders.

September 9 Henry Clay (Whig, 1824, 1832, 1844)
September 16 James G. Blaine (Republican, 1884)
September 23 William Jennings Bryan (Democrat, 1896, 1900, 1908)
September 30 Eugene Debs (Socialist, 1900-1920)
October 7 Charles Evans Hughes (Republican, 1916)
October 14 Al Smith (Democrat, 1928)
October 21 Wendell Willkie (Republican, 1940)
October 28 Thomas E. Dewey (Republican, 1944, 1948)
November 4 Adlai Stevenson (Democrat, 1952, 1956)
November 11 Barry Goldwater (Republican, 1964)
November 18 Hubert Humphrey (Democrat 1968)
November 25 George Wallace (American Party, 1968)
December 2 George McGovern (Democrat, 1972)
December 9 Ross Perot (independent and Reform, 1992, 1996)

Of course, even with 14 shows, someone got left off. I would have liked a Fightin' Bob LaFollette episode. And the bar seems to have been set at nominees and general election contenders. I can think of a few folks who lost nomination battles yet "changed history": Ted Kennedy and Jesse Jackson in my lifetime, and perhaps Dean and Hillary depending how history plays out. Who's your pick?

(Hat tip to Ballot Access News)

Patel Movin' On Up

Patel Movin' On Up

Don't call this one Just Another Student Campaign: Raj Patel kicked off his city council campaign at a dee-luxe apartment in the sky: the Hotel Vetro penthouse home of Marc Moen and Bobby Jett.



Patel hopes to be the first student elected to the Iowa City council in 32 years but said "people don't just want a young person, they want the right young person."

Patel, 20, is currently the student liaison to the city council, a non-voting position. He said he plans to work in his family's hotel business after graduation and pledged to stay in Iowa City, pre-empting the frequent "graduate and gone" criticism of young Iowa City candidates.

Host Moen said that while he and Jett often open their home for charitable events, political events are rare. "The only other candidate we've had here is Joe Biden" during the 2007 caucus season, said Moen. (Which officially makes the event a big f&#@%n' deal.)

The mostly young crowd, which included the chairs of both the University Democrats and College Republicans, dressed up for the event. There was a good size crowd of more traditional aged city election voters; Supervisor Janelle Rettig was spotted.



The venue alone was a draw, as perfect early fall weather late afternoon shadows gave Patel a dramatic backdrop.

But in addition to the personal hospitality, Moen's support for Patel sends a strong signal. The very public backing from downtown's leading developer shows that Patel has already gone further than any young candidate in recent memory in establishing a base within the non-student community.

Rozenboom May Challenge Rielly

Rozenboom May Challenge Rielly in Senate 40

The Oskaloosa News reports: "Mahaska County Supervisor Ken Rozenboom is considering a run for the Iowa Senate" against Democrat Tom Rielly in Senate District 40.

The GOP supervisor was just elected to his first term last year but says "I’m new to holding political office, I’m not new to politics. I’ve followed politics very closely all my life, and I’m in a time in my life I can consider some of these options."

Rozenboom cited Senate control as a key issue.

“I think we need to make every effort to do our part to change that balance of power. I’m frustrated that Mike Gronstal and other Senate Democrats basically blocked a lot of legislation, they blocked debate. In our system of government, we should be able to at least debate the issue, and some of these were simply locked out of debate. I think we have an opportunity to change that here locally.”

Rielly is probably number two on the GOP's target list, behind only Gronstal, and based on the numbers has the toughest seat for Democrats to defend. He knocked off an incumbent in 2008 on tough turf but he goes from having a registration deficit of just under 1000 to a deep-red GOP advantage of nearly 5,000, and a lot of new territory. The district includes all of Mahaska, Monroe and Appanoose counties, and the corner of Marion that includes Pella. It also has rural Wapello County north and west of Ottumwa, but none of that Democratic city.

Rozenboom may not be the only Republican looking at this seat. The rumor mill has long said that Rep. Betty De Boef is also interested. De Boef is paired up in a Washington-Keokuk county seat with Rep. Jarad Klein and has said she won't run against Klein in a primary. De Boef would have to move into the Senate district, but she lived in Mahaska when first elected in 2000.

Sedlacek Challenging Sands in House 88

Sedlacek Challenging Sands in House 88

The cat was let out of the bag a little early at Monday's Iowa City Labor Day Picnic, as Sara Sedlacek of West Liberty pre-announced she'll be challenging Rep. Tom Sands (R-Wapello) in House 88.



"It's not official yet but the press release has been sent so it's out of my hands," joked Sedlacek, a West Liberty Democrat who works as assistant to the Director at Backyard Abundance and as a grant writer for Johnson County.

Sedlacek is a veteran of several Iowa campaigns, including Culver/Judge and State Rep. John Wittneben, who she also served as clerk.

The new map makes this seat even more like the one I ran in and lost in 1996. It includes most of western Muscatine County (except Wilton, which I had) and all of Louisa. There's none of Johnson except a border, but rural Des Moines County takes its place. It's a very, very close district, with an April Democratic registration edge of just 49 voters.

House 88 is also the most Hispanic district in the state. This census both West Liberty and Conesville reported Hispanic majorities in the census, with Columbus Junction just short at 48%. (I checked her Espanol at the picnic and it's muy bien.) Of course, the true key to victory in this district is the all-important endorsement of Danville mayor Roger Doofenshmirtz.

Democrats have taken a few shots at Sands since his first win in 2002. The toughest challenge was in 2008, when former Columbus City mayor Frank Best held him to just 53%. Despite that, Sands went unopposed in 2010.

Guest Post: Palin as Land Shark

Guest Post: Palin as Land Shark

Two posts about Sara(h)s this morning, and one from a guest.

I manages to ignore the past weeken'd Palinmania, but Koni Steele (an excellent writer and I'd say that even if we weren't married) was tuned and had these thoughts on Palin and the big picture in general:

I'm angry that pols in Washington care more about the votes from rich people than the votes from Senior citizens... instead we're the kind of county that is scaring our seniors literally to death.

They're COBRAing out their private insurance and fooling themselves that they are getting excellent treatment, and they're not. The dirty little secret is that doctors trim their time and labs and tests whenever they see or think they see a patient who is on Medicaid or Medicare. It's like having a black mark on your insurance company records.

And if anyone thinks the re-election of Obama is a shoo-in, you're delusional. Palin is ready for anything, we all need to be too. She sees it, she's got advisors, she's like a shark that will come up on the beach and eat roadkill politically.



Everyone around me is very intelligent about politics. They are waiting to rip Palin apart and they believe they can stop her. For everyone else, Palin believes in the Rapture/End of Days, and her group believes it will happen in our lifetime.

I've got kids, I cannot and will not prepare them to be ready to die by the signs of end of days in the Bible, which by the way was not written by God but for God, by imperfect people, be prepared to vote to stop her, so you can look your kids in the eyes and tell them everything will be OK.

Iowa City Labor Picnic

Iowa City Labor Picnic

Fewer political speeches this year than usual at the Iowa City Federation of Labor Picnic, which was also short one vary familiar face.

"We were all a little nervous about how it would all come together without Jean Martin," said City Fed president Pat Hughes. Martin, one of the leading lights of Iowa City labor, passed away early this summer.



Martin’s friends and family are working on a Memorial that will be at the new Terry Trueblood Recreation Area in Iowa City. A gathering of park benches or a shelter house would be called the Jean Martin and Iowa City Federation of Labor Area. The memorial will cost about $10,000. Contributions can be made out to Prairie Voices Productions, PO Box 3411, Iowa City, IA 52244.

While the speeches were mostly skipped, the politicians were plentiful. Dave Loebsack spent the day focused on his new turf in Scott County. But the fearless leaders of the Democrats on the state and local levels - IDP chair Sue Dvorsky and Terry Dahms of the JC Dems- were on hand. legislature was well represented with Bob Dvorsky, Mary Mascher and Dave Jacoby present. Rod Sullivan, Terrence Neuzil, Janelle Rettig and Tom Slockett were on hand from the courthouse.

A couple of the electeds on hand are in re-election races: school board president Patti Fields and Mitch Gross of the Coralville City Council. The City Fed picnic comes at a really good time for school board candidates, eight days before the Sept. 13 election. In addition to Fields, Jim Tate and Sally Hoelscher were present. Only two of the 10 Iowa City Council candidates attended: at large contender Raj Patel and Jim Throgmorton, the lone District C candidate.

The two candidate speeches came from legislative challengers: District 73 contender David Johnson and a second player to be named later.

Harkin for President?

Harkin for President? Naah. I'm not with the kamikaze tactic of a primary challenge to President Obama, but if one were, the biggest question mark is: who? Near the end of a standard lefty critique of Obama with plenty of valid points, Matt Stoller offers a very familiar name:

If a few of the key constituency groups in the Democratic Party publicly wondered whether Obama should run for reelection, rumblings would start. Some organized constituency groups -- say some components of the AFL-CIO -- would need to announce that their support is up for grabs, based on a clear set of criteria. Given the Obama administration's rampant anti-labor policies, this wouldn't be an unreasonable posture. And then a senior politician, like, say, a Tom Harkin, would need to decide that he would want to encourage robust intra-party debate about the party's future. Harkin could run as a "favorite son" of Iowa, and encourage people in the caucuses to send a message to the party and to Obama by choosing him. Other candidates could then emerge in early primary and caucus states, as a way of repudiating Obama's leadership. Candidates wouldn't have to pretend to be running for president or be presidential quality; they could simply stand in as favorite sons or daughters of their own geographic area.

Hm. Interesting. But several flaws. The old-fashioned "favorite son" campaign was last seen in our political culture in 1968, the last cycle before the McGovern era nomination reforms, when a series of governors and such stood in for LBJ and later Humphrey. I don't see it flying in a modern era nomination fight; people want to vote for a president, not a delegate slate and a player to be named later. And I've been there done that with Tom Harkin 20 years ago. We barely kept the caucuses after Harkin's 1992 run. The only thing that saved us was that Harkin was the only defeated candidate who enthusiastically got on the Clinton train when it left the station. Bob Kerrey and Jerry Brown probably wrote themselves in that November. Harkin is too realpolitik savvy to lead a quixotic crusade. But the larger point is made by Daily Kos frontpager brooklynbadboy:

Every time the incumbent president has been challenged, his party has gone on to defeat in the general. That happened to Truman in '52, Ford in '76 and LBJ in '68, and Carter in '80. And George H.W. Bush in '92. So the odds are heavily against you. A primary challenge will result in a Republican President. Probably Perry. Bank on it. We are going to sink or tread water with Barack Obama. Face it. Its Obama or bust. Nobody likes to hear that because this has been the most politically feckless Administration since Jimmy Carter. We've possibly never seen such an astounding turn of fortune in modern political history as we've seen in the past two and a half years. We've gone from "permanent majority" to "can we hold on" in what seems like a fortnight. If Obama goes down, rest assured...we're all going down. It will be a presidential election year. There is no feasible way we will be able to get our voters to the polls in sufficient numbers by simply focusing on Congressional and statehouse races. The presidency is on the line. This is for all the marbles. You'll be hard pressed to find a case where the incumbent president went down to defeat but his party won Congress. It doesn't happen and it wont happen next year.

So as we say in Obama World, I'm in. But a little constructive critique isn't a bad thing, as long as it excludes cliched chants.

Need some diversity, Iowa City?

Need some diversity, Iowa City?

Gregg Hennigan puts in print a fact others have noticed:

The 10 people running for City Council in Iowa City are diverse in their opinions but not in their backgrounds — nearly all of them are white and most are men.

That is particularly striking when considering the three members who will leave the council later this year. Ross Wilburn, a black man, Regenia Bailey, a woman, and Mike Wright, who is gay, all chose not to seek re-election...

And the one woman in the race, Michelle Payne, is also the one registered Republican in the race. Just two years ago, we had a female majority council (Bailey, Champion, Correia, Vanderhoef).

But here's the REAL lack of diversity on the city council: it’s been 32 years since a student was elected to the city council (David Perret in 1979). If we were a city of 65,000 with 25,000 African Americans or Hispanics who had been unrepresented in city government for 30+ years, we’d be in federal court for a Voting Rights Act lawsuit.

2012 Caucuses After All

2012 Caucuses After All

Well we've learned something about Caucus Night, but not enough to nail it down.

Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer made a non-decision of sorts. Today was the deadline if she wanted to move the state's primary to an against the rules Jan. 31, but last night Brewer announced that she would not pick that date. The between the lines story: the RNC bought her off by scheduling a debate in the state.

Brewer still has the ability, for the next month or so, to move the Arizona date up sooner than its current, default, still against the rules date of Feb. 28. (It's an ever-shrinking option: she has to pick the date 150 days ahead.) But let's assume for now that she stays on 2/28.



The rules both parties agreed to state that four states get to go in February: us, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina. February 28 is supposed to be South Carolina's day. Also throw chronic rule-breaker Florida into the mix; their mantra is "we want to be fifth."

If Arizona goes on Tuesday 2/28, that bumps South Carolina back to 2/21. Florida has indicates a willingness to go on a non-traditional day in order to be fifth. So squeeze them in on Thursday the 23rd or Saturday the 25th and hope that South Carolina won't insist on a full week between them and the next state.

Nevada is supposed to go before South Carolina. They have the least tradition of any of the early states and went on a Saturday last cycle. Let's pencil them in for Saturday the 18th.

New Hampshire will insist on a full week and on a traditional Tuesday date, so, February 7.

That's the day after the current official Caucus Night. Iowa law "requires" that we go eight days before anyone else (again: what if every state had that law?) which would make us Monday, January 31st.

But the national parties would like to keep it in February. That's not as much of a mental barrier as the calendar year was in 2008. But we broke the eight day precedent and the Monday tradition in 2008 by going on Thursday 1/3/08 and only five days before New Hampshire, in order to stay in calendar `08.

So my bet is Tuesday 2/1 or Thursday 2/3. Wednesday is generally "church night" which probably precludes Groundhog Day. Still too early? Yeah, but the latest it's been since 1996.

Of course, some state might come out of nowhere to mess this up, but Brewer's inaction makes it much more likely that the 2012 caucuses will be IN 2012.

City Council Candidates

Iowa City Council Deadline

No last-second candidates in Iowa City on today's deadline, so with yesterday's filing by two candidates the field is set: seven in the at large race, a clash of contrasts in District A, and Jim Throgmorton unopposed in District C and returning to the city council after an 16 year hiatus.

Since I haven't alienated any readers in at least an hour (only a BEARS fan would schedule his speech against the Packers season opener) I'm doing my now ritual drill of party-IDing the candidates. No word yet from University Heights, which also had a deadline today.

At Large: vote for two. Top four go to November 8, top two on November 8 elected.

Josh Eklow, 25, near downtown, Democrat. "Recent graduate student."

Richard Finley, 55, north side, Democrat. Rockwell Collins project manager.

Matt Hayek, 41, near east side, Democrat. Attorney, incumbent seeking second term; mayor last two years. (The other incumbent, Michael Wright, is not running.)

Mark McCallum, 50, near east side, Democrat. Realtor and developer. Lost a very close 2009 District B race to Connie Champion.

Jarrett Mitchell, 33, Longfellow area, Libertarian. Coffee shop owner; advocate for allowing backyard chicken coops.

Raj Patel, 20, no party, downtown. Student, active in the anti-21 campaign last year. Don't dismiss as Just Another Student; his campaign kickoff next week is at Marc Moen's condo at the top of the Vetro...

Michelle L. Payne, 45, east side, Republican. Zoning commission member, works for Mid-American. (If 2007 had turned out different this would have been Terry Smith's re-electon year...)

Instant analysis: Assuming a Hayek re-elect, who's the business community's second vote: McCallum or Payne?

District A (incumbent Ross Wilburn not running)

Rick Dobyns, 55, west side, Democrat. Doctor. Ran for council in 2005, finishing first in the primary but lost in the general. Main ringleader of the 2007 21 bar vote (the cycle when the pro-21 side petitioned and lost.)

Steve Soboroff, 61, south side, Democrat. Radio station owner and on-air personality. Ran in 2003, getting through a primary but finishing fourth in the general.

Analysis: They should charge admission for the steel cage match debates.

District C (incumbent Regenia Bailey not running)

Jim Throgmorton, 66, Democrat, north side. Retired professor. Elected to a two year council term in 1993, did not run again in 1995. A prohibitive enough favorite that he cleared the field.

One of the C's is for Counterproductive

One of the C's is for Counterproductive

I'm what my friends on the left (the REAL left) would dismiss as an "electoralist." I believe the most effective means to making the most positive changes is through contesting and winning elections. And I believe that, with all due respect to organized labor and the civil rights movement, the most effective organization for progressive change in the past 80 years has been the Democratic Party.

But that election vs. "direct action" tension is out there, and I seem to have hit a nerve the last couple days with my thoughts on Iowa Citizens for Community Improvement (a/k/a CCI).

CCI's MO is to show up at events and make "demands." (It's a drinking game in newsrooms across Iowa: every time a CCI press release uses the word "demand," do a shot.) Usually they make "demands" of Republicans with whom they 100% disagree, but often they do the same to Democrats with whom they 80% agree.

"Making demands" often means drowning out speakers, generally with the trite chant trifecta: "Hey hey, ho ho, somethingsomething's got to go," "What do we want? Somethingsomething! When do we want it? Now!" and "This is what democracy looks like."

It's in direct conflict with my own style. I go to Republican events, make it very clear I'm a lefty blogger (the beret is a bit of a giveaway), actually engage people in conversation, LISTEN to the speeches, and report what they said.

And that can be enough. The ultimate gotcha moment was then-Sen. George Allen's "macaca" comment. It wasn't prompted by a protester. It was an unforced error captured by a silent tracker from Allen's Democratic opponent, who simply recorded the event.

The CCI style is nails on a chalkboard to me, and I've been baiting them the last few weeks. The catalyst for the latest round was a recent Chuck Grassley town hall in Carroll. Douglas Burns, for my money the finest small market journalist in the state and one of the best in the state period, was at the event:

Not content to interrupt and hurl insults at the senator during the public forum, the mob that is Iowa Citizens for Community Improvement (CCI) crowded Grassley, 77, in the hallway, blocking his entrance to a post-event media interview, and later, used physicality to prevent his clear passage from New Hope to a car.

It was shameful, hateful and, most of all, dangerous.

And CCI spent Monday night bragging about the disruptive behavior — the stuff of chaos not King — on the Internet in email blasts, claiming a “crash” of the Carroll town hall in which they made “demands” of the senator, a venerable public servant and exceedingly decent man.

The self-congratulatory tone is as much a part of the CCI style as the "demands."

“Grassley avoided directly answering our questions and when we confronted him after the meeting ended, he left as quickly as he could,” said Kenn Bowen, a CCI member from Winterset.

“He definitely heard our ‘put people first’ message loud and clear.”

So he HEARD you. Well goody for you. What did that change?

"Well, uh, ya know, I've been a staunch corporate conservative throughout my, uh, five decades in public office," said Grassley, "but after a dozen hippies yelled at me in, uh, Carroll, I've, um, seen the light and am now going to vote the way Bernie Sanders does."

As the great military leader Sherman T. Potter once said, mule muffins. You don't change Chuck Grassley's vote by making "demands." (Drink!) You change Chuck Grassley's vote by beating Chuck Grassley.

So... the phone banks were jam packed last fall with CCI members making calls for Roxanne Conlin, right? Right? (chirp... chirp... chirp...) Riiiiiight. Because you don't get on TV making GOTV calls. You get on TV by "making demands." (Drink!) They probably thought Roxanne was "too corporate" anyway because she has earned some personal wealth, even though she grew up dirt poor and even though she sued Bill Gates and won.

I've gotten some patronizing responses on this from CCI folks:

"I'd like to educate you on issue organizing vs. electoral/partisan organizing, and also organizational structures and what organizations are allowed to do based on their tax status. "

Seems I need educatin.' Gotta got to SCHOOL. No, I don't need no education. I get the difference and I'm not interested in the CCI brand of "issue organizing." I'm interested in winning elections.

"I'm sorry you feel alienated by holding our elected officials accountable." Hey, I've been holding Chuck Grassley accountable since you were in kindergarten. Do the names Jean Lloyd-Jones, Dave Osterberg and Art Small mean anything to you? You win some, you lose some, and THAT is what democracy looks like.

But CCI likes to draw a false equivalence between oppositional Republicans and imperfect Democrats, which ultimately hurts the progressive cause. Just the day after their big coup at the state fair, goading Mitt Romney into his "corporations are people" comment, they were right back "making demands" (drink!) of Democratic National Committee chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz.

Now, I've got an issue or two with Debbie Wasserman Schultz: she was 100% down with her state, Florida, breaking the rules of the nomination process last cycle and getting away with it. But by and large she's a solid spokesperson for liberal causes with a good voting record. Should a progressive organization tar her with the same brush as Mitt Romney? No way. And should they be dealing with even their harshest opponents by shouting them down? Absolutely not. It stinks when the Tea Party does it, it stinks when you guys do it too.

Even the Iowa Democratic Party, allies on many issues, felt compelled to condemn the tactics:

The behavior of Iowa CCI is unproductive, embarrassing, and has no place in a serious debate. Yes, we should be working to protect Social Security, doing everything to keep our air and water clean, and ask our elected officials tough questions. Unfortunately, this group has become less focused on results and more focused on creating chaos that gets their name in the paper.

Iowa CCI is doing a disservice to the state, to true progressive values, and to their members who signed up to make a difference and change our state for the better. Instead of bragging about ‘crashing’ a town hall, designed to give citizens a forum to discuss their concerns, they could be educating Iowans about what’s really at stake and actually make a difference.

There's absolutely a place for vocal protest, even civil disobedience, in our political culture. But CCI, while presenting themselves as spiritual heirs to the 1960s, doesn't have the dignity of the civil rights movement or the genuine mass support of the anti-war movement. What do we want? To be on the news! When do we want it? Now!

So one of the C's in CCI is for "counterproductive." You can decide what the other C and the I are for, but remember that "idiot" is now unconstitutional in Iowa.

Grassley All In For Grandson

Grassley All In For Grandson

From a reader, this flyer is of great interest. Note location:

Please join REPRESENTATIVE PAT GRASSLEY

Thursday, September 1st
from 4:30PM–6:00PM
for a reception with special guest U.S. SENATOR CHUCK GRASSLEY

$1000 Host
$500 Sponsor
$250 Partner
$100 Supporter

Make Checks Payable to:
Citizens for Pat Grassley
30601 Deer Trail Drive
New Hartford, IA 50660

Where:
Republican Party of Iowa
621 East 9th Street
Des Moines, IA

Not so remarkable except, as anyone who reads this blog knows, Grassley the Younger is one of two GOP incumbents in House District 50, and both are staying and running.

One would think, or hope, that RPI might make the HQ available if Annette Sweeney's grandpa wants to host an event, but the key here is: Grandpa Grassley is all in for what should be the hottest legislative primary since Dave Mulder knocked off Ken Veenstra in 2004.

Cityview's Civic Skinny looked at this race last week and noted: "Chuck Grassley, who is worth somewhere between $2 million and $6 million, has never contributed anything to his grandson — or, for that matter, to any other candidate for state office in recent years."

But making things more interesting, it turns out Sweeney has friends in high places too: "(Bruce) Rastetter and Sweeney have known each other since they were young. He gave Sweeney $500 last September and another $500 when she ran two years earlier."

Sounds like an intense surrogate war, and Terry Branstad will have to be really crafty if he wants to stay out of it...

---

For all the fans of yesterday morning's post, here's a firsthand account of CCI's tantrum in Carroll.

Iowa City Set For A Primary

Iowa City Set For A Primary

For the tenth straight city election cycle, it looks like Iowa City is having a primary.

Long-announced at large candidate Josh Eklow filed his papers today, becoming the fifth official candidate in the at large race. Assuming no one drops out, that means a primary October 11 with the top four advancing to November 8.

The last city election year Iowa City avoided a primary was 1991, and there was an extra election that fall anyway (an Iowa City school district bond). More ancient history here.

The last two primaries, in 2007 and 2009, were low turnout affairs to eliminate one candidate, and 2005 was similar (six names on the ballot but one guy had dropped out after the dropout deadline). So the last city primary with a big field of candidates was 2003. That was also the only time an incumbent, Irv Pfab in the District C race, lost a primary.

If I was rewriting a city charter, this wouldn't be my number one change, but one advantage to a runoff over a primary is that in a field with a prohibitive favorite who could win an outright majority in round one, you could save the cost of the second election. But then again, Rick Dobyns ran first in the 2005 primary but lost in November, so maybe the primary does have its advantages.

---

Everyone seems to love my post from this morning but since I touched on about five issues I can't tell which part gets the love. Have to assume it's "da Bears still suck" part.

Burning more bridges

Burning more bridges

Ya know, some days I wake up and I'm not even sure I'm considered a "progressive" in this town any more.

Oh, sure,I still want me some Troops Home Now and some Socialized Medicine. But for me, "progressive" always meant a freedom-loving libertarian streak, and given a choice between 1) a self-appointed do-gooder doctor who knows what's best for people in spite of their own wishes, and who occasionally shows up at a Democratic party fundraiser, and 2) a cantankerous politically incorrect business owner, I'll go with the Captain:

Soboroff said Iowa City essentially has handed over its streets to the University of Iowa by relying on campus police to patrol downtown and Melrose Avenue on gamedays. Soboroff, a critic of the city's recent 21-only bar entry ordinance, said the council has created an unwelcoming atmosphere for students and visitors because of the increased UI police enforcement in the wake of the new law.

And when I see a couple of dudes getting busted for holding a quarter ounce, I think that local law enforcement has more than enough resources and it makes me all the more determined to vote NO next year to a "justice center." (What the hell is a "justice center"?!? A place for Superman and the Super Friends to hang out?) You want your new jail? Make the Iowa City cops and Campus Security Knock. It. Off. I don't CARE that "it's the law." It's a bad law.

And when Iowa CCI does another self-congratulatory press release for yelling at Chuck Grassley at a town hall, I feel like doing a shot every time they use the word "Demands":

“Grassley avoided directly answering our questions and when we confronted him after the meeting ended, he left as quickly as he could,” said Kenn Bowen, a CCI member from Winterset.

“He definitely heard our ‘put people first’ message loud and clear.”

So he HEARD you. Good for you. What did that change?

"Well, uh, I've been a staunch corporate conservative throughout my five decades in public office," said Grassley, "but after a dozen hippies yelled at me in Carroll, I've, um, seen the light and am now going to vote the way Bernie Sanders does."

As the great military leader Sherman T. Potter once said, mule muffins. You don't change Chuck Grassley's vote by making "demands." (Drink!) You change Chuck Grassley's vote by beating Chuck Grassley.

So the phone banks were jam packed last fall with CCI members making calls for Roxanne Conlin, right? Right? (chirp... chirp... chirp...) Riiiiiight. Because you don't get on TV making GOTV calls. You get on TV by chanting "Hey Hey, Ho Ho, and When Do We Want It, Now!" They probably thought Roxanne was "too corporate" anyway because she has earned some personal wealth, even though she grew up dirt poor and even though she sued Bill Gates and won.

So who else can I alienate? Oh, yeah. Da Bears still suck.

Locals Only Part 2

Locals Only Part 2

When we left off yesterday I was praying for someone, anyone,to run against Rick Dobyns, and Captain Steve Soboroff has answered my prayers. The KCJJ morning man's variation of the gonzo campaign may not be my version of the gonzo campaign, but it's better that the in loco parentis revisited of Doc Dobyns.

It's a second campaign for both Soboroff and Dobyns, who have both lost at large races. Soboroff got through the primary in 2003 and finished last in November, though he did have a pocket of strength on the southeast side. Dobyns was leading the field in the 2005 primary, but finished third for two seats in November, narrowly losing to Mike O'Donnell.

And as expected, Mark McCallum filed in the at large race. He wound up 172 votes short of Connie Champion in the `09 District B race.

So that's four at large; one more and it's a primary.

As for the school board, the P-C did follow up with candidate statements from the two candidates for the two year seat: my choice Karla Cook and Julie Van Dyke.

Locals Only

Locals only

No valleys:

This ten candidate five winner two different contests Iowa City school board race can be a bit overwhelming for the info-seeking voter. There is of course my piece with brief bios and party IDs.

Now this weekend, the Press-Citizen offers candidate statements for the eight at large candidates (but, oddly, not for two year contenders Karla Cook and Julie Van Dyke; those coming later?) Remember, you can vote for four but you don't have to vote for that many.

My picks so far:

Patti Fields

Marla Swesey

Jim Tate

The rest of the field:

Jeff Alden

Phil Hemingway

Sally Hoelscher

Jeff McGinness

Bob Porter

Read these soon; the P-C tends to archive their articles after a week.

And the Gazette has the first and so far only piece on the Kirkwood bond issue.

The Iowa City (and UHeights) filing deadline is next Thursday and Iowa City is keeping a candidate list.

We're still in need of some candidates, particularly ones willing to run on my Gonzo Platform. Add the parking meter crackdown to the moped crackdown, the don't beg in front of my jewelry store crackdown, and of course The Big One, and Iowa City is getting pretty sanitized these days. No wonder the weekend MegaBus is adding more routes; people have to get out of town for something to do.

But so far we have three in the at large race. Mayor Matt Hayek is the only one running for re-election; his folks asked me to help. I did in 2007 but told them no this time. We also have northsider Richard Finley, and backyard chicken advocate Jarrett Mitchell. Still left to check in: Mark McCallum, who came very close to knocking off Connie Champion in the `09 District B race, and Josh Eklow.

In District C, I actually have someone I'm excited about voting for: Jim Throgmorton. A couple other names are being mentioned here but no one else has filed. In another screwy aspect of Iowa City's screwy district system, it's way harder to get on the ballot in a district seat this year than at large. That's because the signatures are a percentage of the last time the seat was up. The at large seats were up in record low turnout 2009 but the district seats were elected in record high turnout 2007. AND you have to get those district seat signatures IN the district.

That said: PLEASE, lord, SOMEone else file in District A; I don't want to have to figure out who to write in against Rick Dobyns.

Loebsack, Willems at Dvorsky Birthday Party

Loebsack, Willems at Dvorsky Birthday Party

Bob Dvorsky's annual birthday party fundraiser marked its silver anniversary Friday night with announced guest Nate Willems and drop-in guest Dave Loebsack.



"I hate to play a defensive game, and that's what I've been doing in Washington since January," said Loebsack of his first term in the House minority. "I'd rather be taking the initiative."

Willems, a Lisbon state representative running in new Senate District 48, which on Map Day had a voter registration margin of plus one Democrat, noted Loebsack's recent move. "I know Dave and Terry moved to Iowa City, but I had a couple friends move back to Anamosa, so I'm still at plus one Democrat."

Sue Dvorsky said Loebsack is doing what he needs to do in his new counties. "If you go to a Hy-Vee in Scott County, you can't turn around in the produce department without running into Congressman Loebsack.



"This event is always special," Sue Dvorsky said of her dual role as Senate spouse and Iowa Democratic Party chair, "but now I'm lucky enough to do this in 99 counties."

"The election of 2012 is the completion of what the election of 2008 was," said the ever-energetic chair.

Redistricting keeps Bob Dvorsky with his Coralville and Solon base, but Senate District 37 adds new turf to the east in Cedar County plus the city of Wilton in Muscatine. He's next set to run in 2014.



And of course it wouldn't be a Dvorsky birthday party without this gal. More pix at what turned into two Facebook albums.

Bly Announces in House 76

Bly Announces in House 76

Democrats have another House recruit, this time in a must-win empty swing seat. Grinnell city council member Rachel Bly has announced in House 76.

Bly won her first council term in 2009. She has a ward seat, so she's only been elected out of the southwest quarter of the city (campus is the northeast). But that's still some name ID in the district's biggest city.

A complete Poweshiek County akes up 60% of the turf. Grinnell was the scene of epic legislative battles last decade. Democrat Eric Palmer and Republican Danny Carroll fought three straight contests; Carroll won the first in 2004, Palmer knocked him off in 2006 and thwarted the 2008 comeback. But in 2010 the wave swept out Palmer and replaced him with Guy Vander Linden.

The old Carroll-Palmer-Vander Linden district was in a Poweshiek-Mahaska format. Both Palmer and Vander Linden are from Mahaska, and this announcement likely means Osky-based Palmer won't be moving. Vander Linden is staying put to the south and running; his pair-up problem was resolved when Pella's Jim Van Engelenhoeven retired. Carroll was Grinnell-based, but got his votes in Mahaska.

About 40% of the seat is the bigger part of Iowa County: Williamsburg, North English, Victor, and most of the Amanas. Johnson County Dems take note: this one's literally an across the road neighbor. You can doorknock Williamsburg and shop at the outlet mall after. Swingy turf, but way friendlier for a Democrat than Oskaloosa.

The Iowa County part was represented by Keokuk County based Betty De Boef, who's paired up with Jarad Klein and hasn't announced plans other than NOT primarying Klein.

Overall the seat had a Map Day Democratic registration edge of 217, so right on the edge. Your move next, GOP.

Pataki. Pataki?!?

Pataki. Pataki?!?

Why? Because as Flavor of the Week Rick Perry is already wearing thin?

Speaking of flavor, it's been 18 years since Pataki knocked off Mario Cuomo. In 2000 he might have been a strong contender, or in Alternate Universe 2004 against President Gore. But in 2012 Pataki is sour milk.

Nate Silver graphs it out in four dimensions -- you have to see it, the man is a genius -- and illustrates that while there is room for yet someone else in the field, the niche is not where Pataki is located. Indeed, his tiny circle of potential support falls entirely in the Mitt Zone. He's Mitt without Obamneycare and without the deal-breaker for the fundamentalists of the Mormon Church.

And Newt already has the I Love The 90s niche locked up.

No, Pataki is not the saviour the Bill Buckley crowd is praying for:

The problem, in shorthand: To many conservative elites, Rick Perry is a dope, Michele Bachmann is a joke and Mitt Romney is a fraud.

And Huntsman is unacceptable to the base; Kevin Hall at TheIowaRepublican rips the Former Obama Administration Ambassador several new ones in a must-read.

As I see it, the GOP has two possible strategies forward:

1964, where they turn the party over to the crazies for a cycle so they can say Told Ya So in four years.

Or, and this is my bet, 1996. They punt on the presidency and throw everything into the down-ballot races.

Democrat Bomgaars Running in House 2

Democrat Bomgaars Running in House 2

Iowa House Democrats seem to have recruited another solid candidate for a GOP-leaning district, as Spencer city council member Steve Bomgaars has announced in empty House District 2.

But you have to look close to tell: Bomgaars seems to be playing down party ID in this district with 1152 more Republicans than Democrats. The original Spencer Daily Reporter piece that looks press-release based doesn't even include the D word.

"After serving over seven years on the city council, I have seen what can be accomplished when leaders and the community come together," Bomgaars said. "We need a similar approach to state government -- moving forward by finding common ground and steering away from the divisive rhetoric so prevalent today."

Party ID only surfaces in a second Daily Reporter piece from the local Democratic picnic. Both articles emphasize a no "special interest" money pledge so labor PACs, put away those checkbooks.

Bomgaars comes from a background teaching American government, about as Mr. Smith Goes To Des Moines as you can get. Here's hoping Bomgaars gave out lots of A's to students who stuck around Spencer. One of his former students is a potential opponent, ex-Steve King intern and law student Megan Hess.

This empty seat is all of Clay and Palo Alto, with the southern third of Dickinson thrown in. It's made out of pieces of Okoboji Republican Jeff Smith and Estherville Democrat John Wittneben's old seats. House 2 is a Republican seat, true. But it's a veritable People's Republic compared to other northwest Iowa seats. Jack Kibbie's base is in Palo Alto, and Marcy Frevert lasted a long time before she retired and handed off to Wittneben last year.

Two Candidates In The Time Machine

Two Candidates In The Time Machine



Michele Bachmann and Jon Huntsman can BOTH get elected this cycle... provided they can get the 1.21 jigawatts and the speedometer up to 88.

For Huntsman, it's The Future:

The Huntsman strategy here is obvious: position himself as the moderate and reasonable guy on the off chance Republicans decide to be moderate and reasonable. We must assume he is aware that his odds on this are rather long, so what he’s really hoping for is to be the consensus candidate of 2016. Maybe the party just has to go through this purge, this Reign of Terror; so just let it do that, and once it does and nominates an extremist who can’t beat a weak incumbent during a time of 9 percent unemployment rates, and the heads are piled high enough in the tumbrels and enough people finally have returned to their senses, he will ride the Thermidorian wave to victory after Obama leaves town.

The I Told You So strategy. Nixon used it in `64 and it worked in `68. One catch in the theory: if Romney is nominated and loses, does religion get blamed and used against Huntsman in `16? It was 32 years between Al Smith and JFK. And if the GOP does win (shudder) Huntsman's screwed like all the Democrats who though HW couldn't lose and waited for 1996.

For Bachmann, it's Back:

In brief, my theory is this: Michele Bachmann is traveling backwards through time.

Now, before you get all dismissive, I’ll ask you to examine the facts. It’s certainly true that as seen from the perspective of a person for whom the normal universe’s past is her future, the spectre of the Soviet Union looms large. In the coming decades they will confound the west by removing nuclear weapons faster than we do, extract warheads from Cuba despite our protests, pull out of Eastern Europe and unsuccessfully invade Afghanistan (that last one looks the same in both directions). They will shamelessly copy our pursuits in the space race – we put a man in orbit, they’ll put a man in orbit – and they will be at least 50% responsible for creating Nazi Germany by withdrawing from Central Europe. This menace will persist for the better part of a century, at which point a royal family will appear from nowhere and squelch this accursed Revolution of the People. I can’t blame Michele Bachmann for wanting to warn America about this looming threat which lies only a few short decades behind us.

But if Bachmann does contact Doc Brown, she can use the DeLorean to get to her events on time.

Three of her four public events in the past two days were outdoor rallies in mid-90s midday heat. She was at least half an hour late to each, and audience members invariably began drifting away in search of shade before she was finished speaking. In Mt. Pleasant (SC), at least one person in the audience passed out from the heat.

Especially important in Iowa; remember Rudy Giuliani getting to events on New York Fashionably Late time?

There may not be any flux capacitors involved but we finally found science Rick Perry believes in:

Over the course of that year, the eggheads, as they were known within the campaign, ran experiments testing the effectiveness of all the things that political consultants do reflexively and we take for granted: candidate appearances, TV ads, robocalls, direct mail. These were basically the political world’s version of randomized drug trials, which had been used by academics but never from within a large-scale partisan campaign.

The findings from those 2006 tests dramatically changed how Carney prioritized the candidate’s time and the campaign’s money when Perry sought reelection again in 2010 and will inform the way he runs for president now.

But no science is gonna get Perry that Steve King Endorsement.

Great Scott! A Primary?

Great Scott! A Primary?

The QCTimes notes what I had a couple weeks back: Senator Jim Hahn, R-Muscatine, IS staying put and running in Senate 46. Most folks, including me, had this pegged as a Hahn retirement from about Map Day forward.

The article says this means "setting up a likely Republican primary against his colleague, Sen. Shawn Hamerlinck," and is centered around this assumption. But it also notes "Hamerlinck left himself some wiggle room Friday, when he said he hadn’t guaranteed he’ll run in the district, but added, 'It’s my intention that I will.'"



Hamerlinck already goes home to a different home than he did when elected. He was on the Davenport city council when he knocked off Frank Wood in 2008. And some of his old turf is in Senate 49, the only empty odd-number seat in the state. (Odd seats normally vote on the gubernatorial cycle. But if he moved in, Hamerlinck would have to run for a two year term since the 2008 term expires.)

One complication with that move: Andrew Naeve, who lost to Democrat Tod Bowman by just 71 votes last year, has already announced (and he didn't file for re-election to his school board seat). So Hamerlinck could get a primary either way.

And this wave just keeps rippling upstream: Bowman, whose Maquoketa home is drawn out of Clinton-based Senate 49, is paired up with Dubuque County's Tom Hancock. But note this item: "State Rep. Chuck Isenhart, D-Dubuque, and state Sen. Tod Bowman, D-Maquoketa, will hold a public hearing Monday in Dubuque to get additional input in advance of the recommendations to transform Iowa’s education system."

In Dubuque. Well north of Bowman's old lines. That's telling me Bowman stays and runs in the Jackson-rural Dubuque Senate 29, which wraps around the Dubuque city limits. That points to a Hancock retirement...

I started this post out with two Republicans and ended up with two Democrats. So let's assume there IS a Hahn-Hamerlinck primary. It'd be the second confirmed two incumbent primary in the state, joining the sure to be epic Pat Grassley-Annette Sweeney House battle. And it's be on even terms: exactly half the district is Muscatine County, exactly half is Scott. That kind of contest usually comes down to friends and neighbors and which half has higher turnout. Things like an interesting primary for a courthouse job could make the difference.

---

Also noted, and much less interesting, in Scott County: Rep. Linda Miller announces for re-election in Bettendorf's House 94. She knocked off incumbent Joe Hutter twice in 2006: first in the primary, then again when he ran independent in the general. Miller hasn't had an opponent since.

And in Cedar Rapids, Renee Schulte takes time off the Romney campaign -- yes, Iowans, there IS a Romney campaign -- to announce for her own re-election in HD66. The Dem she knocked off in `08, Art Staed, has already announced; Bleeding Heartland has a good look.

---

Here's some long reads that don't fit anywhere else:

Craig Robinson smacks down the pizza guy: "Herman Cain has a book due out in October. One has to wonder if his presidential bid is more about selling books than becoming the GOP nominee." Hey, when does Newt publish again?

As would-be GOP saviour the Platypus is turning out to be just Texas tea, the background on why the Bushes and Rick Perry are on the outs.

Let Obama Be Obama vs. Let Obama be Harry Truman.

And my favorite dream of the week: "If America truly is serious about dealing with its deficit problems, there's a fairly simple solution. But you're probably not going to like it: Enact a single-payer health care plan." Who said I wasn't going to like it?

Phillips Considering House 77?

Royce Phillips Considering House 77 run?

Tiffin mayor Royce Phillips tells his Facebook friends he "is getting requests to run for the Iowa Statehouse in a new open district." That would be a GOP bid in House 77, where Democratic county supervisor Sally Stutsman has already announced.

"Now I am getting calls from state representatives to do it," Phillips added.

Phillips knocked off a long time incumbent in 2007 to win the non-partisan mayor's post. Before that, he had lost a school board bid. Stutsman has won five straight terms as a county-wide supervisor but lost a legislative bid on very different turf in 2000.

The new turf, which mostly belonged to Democrats Dave Jacoby and Nate Willems and Republican Jarad Klein last map, wraps around the west end of Johnson County, from Shueyville to Lone Tree. Tiffin is the district's second largest city and doubled in population to just under 2000 last decade. High-growth North Liberty is about 40% of the district, which has a Democratic registration edge of 2500.

Ankeny Again

Ankeny Again: Name Surfaces in House 37

Yesterday I noted that state rep Kevin Koester (R-Ankeny) is running for re-election in House 38, the southern Ankeny district, and noted that vacant House 37, the north part of town, is a stronger GOP seat.

A reader gets me up to speed and points me to the website of Stacey Rogers, a recent UI law grad last seen clerking for Senator Mark "Chickenman" Chelgren.

Pour yourself a big hot cup of tea and peruse the site, which emphasizes "Supporting Voter ID at the Ames Straw Poll" (the candidate is wearing a Bachmann shirt), her work at "the Goldwater Institute in Phoenix, one of the conservative/libertarian think tanks now suing to repeal Obamacare," and her endorsement from Tea Party Kommandant Ryan Rhodes. I'll give her this: Rogers is clear about where she's coming from.

The This Is Where Your District Went district has a solid but not insurmountable GOP registration edge of about 2300 (compared to the slight Democratic tilt of Koester's District 38). With a good candidate and a good year, the right Democrat could pull it off. Does another Republican get in and play the electability card? Does that even matter in a Republican primary anymore?

Koester stays put

Koester stays put, announces in House 38

The comforts of home seem to have outweighed the prospects of redder turf for two-term state rep Kevin Koester. The Ankeny Republican has announced for re-election in House District 38, where he currently lives.

Koester is all alone in House 38, but there was a temptation next door: open House District 37, also known to my readers as the This Is Where Your District Went district.

Ankeny grew from 27,000 in the 2000 census to 45,000 in 2010, and for the first time was split into two House seats. The north district, 37, is solidly Republican, but the south seat, 38, is a swing seat with a slight Democratic tilt.

Koester tried for a move-up in January when the Ankeny based Senate seat opened up. But in a rare rebuke to a just re-elected legislator, he was one of the first candidates eliminated at a multi-candidate party nominating convention. (Jack Whitver won that and the election.) So there may be primary vulnerability, which an opportunistic move wouldn't help. Staying in the tougher district may thus have been the smarter choice. Or it may be as simple as not wanting to move.

Perry Packs The Hamburg

Perry Packs The Hamburg



One thing's for sure: on Day Three of his campaign, Rick Perry is a big draw.

Hamburg inn wait staff said people began showing up at 1:30 for an event that was first billed as 3:45 p.m., then 3:30, and by the time I arrived "sometime after 3." I didn't manage to get inside until after the Texas governor had departed on the Platybus, but Panther colorfully described indoor conditions as: "it's butt to butt in there."


This is what democracy looks like: what the inside of the Hamburg Inn looked like from the outside

The crowd was likely the biggest for an event at the north side diner and political landmark since a 2007 John Edwards event. Edwards never actually set foot inside, but instead spoke to the crowd from the campaign bus.

Perry did not speak; before his arrival a staffer told me the vent was just a meet and greet. Still, that disappointed a few folks in the crowd: supporters, curious Republicans, lefty protesters, and all manner of local and national press. "I was kind of hoping he'd get up and say something," said Panther. Nevertheless, he was snapping pictures, introduced some of his staff to Perry, and just generally seemed proud of his establishment's tradition.

Event organizers carefully lined up supporters at the doors for a nice TV backdrop for Perry, as protesters shouted questions. "Are you going to end Social Security? Are you going to end Social Security?" one older gentleman shouted repeatedly, waving a sign and literally shaking with rage. Across the street, another group managed to work in the Hey Hey Ho Ho chant and the This Is What Democracy Looks Like chant, but failed to complete the trifecta with When Do We Want It? Now!

I didn't get close enough to try for a question - mine was going to be more inside basebally about reaching out to Pawlenty supporters - but I did get close enough to hear that Texas drawl (flashback?): "How y'all doin? Glad y'all could make it."



The advance staff had the kind of faux Secret Service vibe that the 2007 Romney and Giuliani campaigns tried to project: earpieces, coded pins, sending a message of This Is A Very Important Man. At least one serious looking guy was Iowa State Patrol plainclothes. Perry campaign staff had been on the ground about five days before the event, and Panther said that was when he was contacted, about five days ago.



Waiting outside, the "discussion" between late arriving Republicans who couldn't squeeze in and picketers (both traditional lefties and Ron Paul folks) got heated occasionally, but no trips to Fist City.

All in all, probably a good media hit for Perry, and it looked like everyone who really wanted a handshake or autograph and was willing to work a little for it got one. But if he's back, I'm sure the local GOP and press corps would appreciate a little speech and a little Q and A.

Bachmann Repeating Hillary's Mistakes

Bachmann Repeating Hillary's Mistakes?

While Iowa City waits for Rick Perry's Hamburg Inn appearance this afternoon, Politico offers a must-read on the face-off between the Platypus and Michele Bachmann yesterday in Waterloo, saying Perry emerged as a clear winner:

Perry arrived early, as did former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum. The Texas governor let a media throng grow and dissolve before working his way across the room to sit at table after table, shake hand after hand, pose for photographs and listen politely to a windy Abraham Lincoln impersonator, paying respect to a state that expects candidates, no matter their fame, to be accessible.

But Bachmann campaigned like a celebrity. And the event highlighted the brittle, presidential-style cocoon that has become her campaign’s signature: a routine of late entries, unexplained absences, quick exits, sharp-elbowed handlers with matching lapel pins, and pre-selected questioners.

I wasn't there yesterday, but it's eerily familiar:

The Clinton campaign, in contrast, ran a cautious general election campaign in the ultimate retail environment. But like a singer with perfect pitch who misses the meaning of the song, Clinton kept errors to a minimum but failed to capture the spontaneous spirit of the caucuses. She started out doing one on one meetings with undecided local activists, but as her national lead held, Clinton moved toward a "general election strategy," as she said at a debate. By the time Obama was catching up in the fall, it was too late to go back and adapt.

No one incident captures this perfectly, but little detail after little detail paints the picture.

A staffer subtly steering me away from a friend of many years, directing her to the public seats and me to the roped off press area. Offering the press free pizza after the speech, rather than what we really wanted: time to ask the candidate a question.

The analogy isn't perfect, of course. Clinton was supremely qualified for the big job, and has served with distinction as secretary of state. But the same tone-deafness to the caucuses, right down to the planted questions, is there.

Yes, we Iowans are spoiled. But if you are going to make a serious caucus run, you can't just show up and give the speech. You have to shake every hand, pose for every picture, and allow every question, even when the questioner is obviously a looney tune. (You have to have a staffer who can gently lead you away from such people.) You have to have a rebuttal ready for the disruptive protester. (And this is bipartisan, as some groups don't distinguish between a hostile Republican and an imperfect Democrat. I saw Bob Kerrey get chased out of the state back in 1991 by pointed questions from the left.)

And you have to keep doing it, event after event. Bachmann has the skill set, I've seen it. But she can't abandon the one on one stuff just because she won one straw poll and switch into what Hillary Clinton called "general election mode." She has to shake the same hands a third and fourth time and fifth. Caucus-goers see it as a birthright. The old joke is that a national reporter asks a caucus veteran if they're voting for so and so and the Iowan replies: "I don't know. I've only met him three times." The punchline is: this isn't a joke.

Whether or not he knows it, Rick Perry is taking a big risk coming to the People's Republic on Day Three of his campaign. But we'll see how he handles it. As for Bachmann, it's not too late for her to adapt... but she'll need to.

Pawlenty Quitting

Pawlenty Quitting

Just breaking that Tpaw will announce today that he's dropping out of the presidential race. Obviously yesterday's weak third in the straw poll, with Bachmann first and Ron Paul nearly tied, was not just disappointing, it was fatal.

In the old days of brokered conventions, Tim Pawlenty might have won the big prize: acceptable to pretty much everyone in the party, offensive to few. He didn't hurt himself enough to knock himself out of the VP mix. And in a nomination system where Powers That Be still exerted significant influence, he may have had a chance.

But in an atmosphere that values style over substance, and in a party that values gridlock over governing, he didn't have a prayer. The debate scraps between Pawlenty and Bachmann just three days ago are a microcosm of his entire fate. Bachmann pointed to all the "fights" she's fought -- no debt ceiling this, no light bulb mandates that. Pawlenty noted she hadn't actually WON any of these fights. The Republican Party responded with a collective "So what?"

---

So who does this help? No one a whole lot, because I don't see an en masse move to one candidate. The question is more: Who does this NOT help?

It doesn't help Romney. He and TPaw were competing for much of the same "grownup" niche, and I'm thinking anyone who was with a struggling TPaw instead of nominal national frontrunner Romney has already rejected Mitt for whatever reason: Obamneycare (that word may be TPaw's lasting contribution to this race) or, without saying so, his religion.

It doesn't help Bachmann or Paul, who are running on explicitly different messages. I suspect TPaw's people share the ex-candidate's disdain for Bachmann. Paul's success depends entirely on maximizing turnout in his Peace and Gold niche. The straw poll, with its emphasis on intense commitment, may have already done that.

Herman Cain is already dead, he just doesn't know it yet. Huntsman's not playing, and who knows what the hell Thad McCotter is doing. Maybe a handful of folks gravitate to Newt, but not many.

So that leaves the Ricks. Santorum got just enough support at just the right time to stay alive. And as I consider it, the core case for him and Pawlenty has some similarities: experience, ability to win on tough turf, solid conservative record on social issues.

Of course, Santorum emphasized those social issues more, and I think that accounted for much of his surprisingly strong 10% yesterday. (Bachmann, who got into politics on that cluster of issues in the first place, should have owned that vote.) As for electoral success, Santorum has the albatross of losing his senate seat by 20 points. He has an answer for that -- it was an annus horriblis for Republicans -- but Pawlenty managed to keep his job that year.

And so did Rick Perry, though it was with just 39% in a bizarre four way race. Perry has been a polarizer within his party the last half decade: In 2006 Carole Keeton Strayhorn dropped a primary challenge to run independent and win 18%, and last year sitting Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison challenged him. (Both women. Interesting implication vis a vis Bachmann.)

The Platypus enters the race with TPaw's 13% of the straw poll vote and a decent organization shaken loose from the moorings this Sunday morning. This list of 29 county chairs may be populated with Some Dudes, but at least 10 legislators were on board. Pawlenty's body may not be cold yet, but that's a good list of phone calls for the Ricks to be making ASAP.

Notes from the Non-Credentialed 2

Notes from the Non-Credentialed 2

Voting's been done 45 minutes, still on standby.

At 4:53 we hear 17,000 votes. So how long wil the write ins take? Chuck Todd tays there's "lots."

Steve King again does the Yay Caucuses bit, and there's a hint he's none to pleased with the Platypus for stepping on the straw poll. Grassley talks, my big takeaway is he told Mitt he needs to get out here.

Hearing a "soon" on results, though not an official Five Minute Warning, at 5:33.

OK, show time at 5:41.4823/

16,892, votes. Winner = Bachmann. And that's all we get. I thought they were counting down, So THAT's how they dealt with the write ins.

5:47 we get the numbers. Paul damn near tied. TPaw distrant third.

Bachmann 4823 28.7%
Paul 4671 27.8
Pawlenty 2293 13.7
Santorum 1657 9.9
Cain 1456 8.7
WRITE IN TOTAL 936
Romney 567 3.3
Gingrich 385 2.3
Huntsman 69 0.4
McCotter 35 0.2

That leaves 936 total write ins

Paul can claim de facto tie (and does)
TPaw at poor third = trouble
Santorum can survive 4th
Cain is finished
Write in total = even if all for Perry, not a big win
Mitt and Huntsman = Iowa Republicans punish those who don't play.
Newt and McCotter are on their own trips so won't quit. But McCotter joins Roemer and Gary Johnson as officially fringe. McCotter bails sometime close to Michigan filing deadline for re-election.

Now they say Perry 718 write ins and that I had the total vote right the first time. Not gonna recalculate the percentages, they don't change much....

That also means only about 200 other write ins. How did they count Parry?

OK, here's the latest at 6:10

1. Congresswoman Michele Bachmann (4823, 28.55%)
2. Congressman Ron Paul (4671, 27.65%)
3. Governor Tim Pawlenty (2293, 13.57%)
4. Senator Rick Santorum (1657, 9.81%)
5. Herman Cain(1456, 8.62%)
6. Governor Rick Perry (718, 3.62%) write-in
7. Governor Mitt Romney (567, 3.36%)
8. Speaker Newt Gingrich (385, 2.28%)
9. Governor Jon Huntsman (69, 0.41%)
10. Congressman Thad McCotter (35, 0.21%)
Scattering (162, 0.96 %) Includes all those receiving votes at less than one-percent that were not on the ballot.

So they're not releasing anything else? Palin under 1% at best...

Chuck Todd with Santorum. Rick claiming third "of those who could win Iowa," continuing the debate feud with Ron Paul. Chuck asks him if he's getting into the PA Senate race.

Funny to see Wasserman Schultz here in Iowa, considering how much of a caucus bashing, Florida leapfrog lover she was in 2008. And still is; Chuck says Dems need something like Ames and DWS makes sure to say it should be in Florida.

Notes from the Non-Credentialed

Notes from the Non-Credentialed

No, I'm not there. Got turned down for press credentials. SCored a ticket but decided it wasn't worth the full day just to write in Barack Obama and see if they counted it.

We're in media split screen mode at 12:30.as Rick Perry gives his announcement speech. Damn, he sounds exactly like W. I still have him pegged as the Fred Thompson of 2011. Does the post-speech analysis step on Santorum's speech?

No, they cut back to Ames and we get Branstad, basching "Brock" Obama. Of course, the speeches aren't the story. The cattle call moment with all on stage... except where's TPaw? The moment is brief and MSNBC interviews Obradovich through whole thing.

12:46. Santorum on stage but MSNBC still with Mitt story. Here's my bets:

1 Bachmann
2 Paul
3 TPAW
4 Santorum

Rick has wife and 5 of the 7 kids on stage with him. The finally cut to him. Sounds like the stump speech I heard last week. "I will not back down on the sanctity of life or the integrity of the American family. America is a moral enterprise." Still hustling for that BVP endorsement. (Speaking of which, that mass email from Chuck Hurley was an annoying tease: "We endorse..." "the people of Iowa!"

Santorum complains again about debate time and goes into the Little Engine That Could riff.

"Obamacare is the single greatest threat..." uses again the Maggie Thatcher quote about never being able to reverse UK direction because of National Health. Soon after that MSNBC cuts away.

I finally find CSPAN, all they way up on channel 97, and Santorum is citing his lengthy anti-choice bona fides and wraps at 1:00 straight up. Rally music is some country rock track I don't recognize, and Matt Strawn intros Kim Reynolds.

Strawn has spun the GOP closing the party reg gap to the MSNBC dude, presumably not mentioning that most of that is from their divisive 2010 primary.

Network cuts to Ron Paul already in progress, talking more about abortion than he usually does, for several minutes. He must figure he's got his people already, trying to reach some of the others. "You cannot be pro liberty without being pro-life, as I understand it." But he's working taxes = theft and "undeclared unwinnable wars" and the Patriot Act too. "We cannot defend liberty without by taking liberty away." Claque: Ron! Paul! Ron! Paul!

MSNBC with a talking head, back to CSPAN. He's on to the Fed... will we hear the G word? YES! GOLD! EVERYBODY DRINK!

"It's time. to bring. the troops. home." Loud shouts from the claque. Basically the standard Ron PAul Speech, but delivered well. Paul wraps, they show a Strong America Now vid, MSNBC goes back to discussing the Platypus.

Back at CSPAN I find myself agreeing with... STEVE KING?!? He's praising Iowa First, so yeah, I can work with you on that Steve. But soom he's back to his usual stuff so I'm on the other side and all is right with the universe again.

TPaw gets introduces with a fast cut video followed by musuc that sounds like a movie soundtrack. Leads with Ronnie Good, Obama Bad. Then into some numbered outline points. He's hitting all the right points, but making the mistake of calling Obama "Mr. President" which may be nails on chalkboard to this crowd. There's not much time left and we're at least 80% Obama-bash. OK, now on to his case: "I don't just talk about it, I get the job done." (Take that Bachmann) "No individual mandates (take that Mitt) "Results, not just talk, is what America needs now."

"We need to not just preach to the choir... I got elected and re-elected in one of the most difficult states for a Republican." Comes out if favor of apple pie and gets some U-S-A! chants. More generic country rock for stage music. While Grassley speaks, the networks show Paul and Santorum highlights.

Bachmann hits stage after a video hagiography and to some remixed Elvis. She leads with a lot of We Are Going To Do It Together And Take It Back! Sounds kind of shouty to me. ONE! TERM! PRESIDENT! DRINK! Playing the I'm An Iowan card again. "Everything I Needed To Konw I Learened In Iowa!" (Again: she left when she was 12.) Some social issues -- but then back to Iowa Iowa Iowa. At least the Sullivan Brothers actually were from Waterloo.

This is definitely not a policy-specific speech. She's gonna march her folks over to the voting, to the tune of, yes, Elvis doing Chuck Berry's "Promised Land." (That's late, Vegas-era Elvis.) Seems like a sizable crew leaving the front of the stage before Tom Latham talks. Not much memorable there, and he looks dull compared to Bachmann...

But he rocks like ELvis compared to our next guest. Yes, it's McCotter time! Several polite applause line, but nothing brings the house down. Speech pattern has improved a bit since last week. No one packed in front of stage; this may be Eat Time or Vote Time. Anyone who finishes below this guy is toast.

Talking heads are Huntsman This and Romney that and Perry The Other as the Herman Cain intro video rolls. Unlike Thad, he has a claque of supporters down front. They're actually 15 minutes AHEAD of schedule; Herman wasn't due on till 3:15 and it's only 3. This IS a policy detail speech but the tl;dr version is Cut Taxes.

Did he just say we got a "funky foreign policy"? Tear the rook off the sucka! A couple of the people up front are in TPaw shirts.

Speeches wrap at 3:11, Strawn says voting done at 4. Back at MSNBC, pundits still talk Perry.