Democrat caucuses' clout big in gubernatorial race

Democrat caucuses' clout big in gubernatorial race

The buzz is starting to trickle out, beyond the activist level:

If no candidate clears 35 percent, the nomination will be decided at a party convention.

Next year there will be incentive for the Democrats running for governor to see their supporters elected as county delegates. County delegates are automatically nominated to the party's state convention.

Delegates elected from county conventions to the state convention would be called to vote at a nominating convention.

"Even if you don't consider it a backup, it's a good way to get people to commit to you early," Mandernach said. "If you can convince them there's urgency to commit in January, you've got five months for them to help you."

Not stictly accurate; the caucuses elect county delegates, then the county convention elects the state delegates.

The GOP came damn close to this scenario in `02 with only three candidates who all landed between 30 and 36 percent; Gross won it with only 35.6! And it actually happened in the 5th CD that year with only four candidates. Steve King led in the primary with only 31 and the 4th place finisher was over 20.

The seven way race is really a four way race; only Blouin, Culver, Fallon and Judge are likely to be above the low single digits.

From my seat inside one county party I don't see January commitments happening. Most people I know are in my quandry: which of a bad bunch? I can't name one person in this county who is, say, a "Culver person" or "a Blouin guy", etc. I think it's more likely that some of our local progressive groups will turn out at caucuses, work to get their folks elected, and then wait to be persuaded after the fact.

Myself, I expect Blouin to be leading going in, in part because of disproportionate turnout in the 1st CD. With a hot congressional primary, the northeast part of the state will have higher turnout than the rest of the state. (In my home, Johnson County, turnout is driven more by local races.)

I may just wait till the final Register poll the Sunday before the primary and vote for whoever's best positioned to block Blouin.