District Of The Day 3: Iowa Senate District 14, Iowa House District 27 & 28

Senate District 14
Registration: D 10737, R 13327, N 12873, total 36963, R +2590
Open Seat; Paul McKinley, R-Chariton, retiring.

Sure, the leadership challenge ahead of the anticipated loss in the Marion special senate election last year probably played the biggest role in Paul McKinley's retirement. But it's worth noting that on Map Day, he went from a 3844 Republican registration edge to a much more swingy 622. Caucus and primary activity has boosted Republican rolls, but we're still talking about a much less Republican seat than the old one.

The new seat includes four whole counties - Clarke, Lucas, Decatur and Wayne - plus most of Mahaska, with the exception of Pella. It also has a chunk of southern Jasper County.

Both parties saw enough opportunity to draw contested primaries, and both primaries were landslides. In the Republican side, Wayne County supervisor Amy Sinclair was way ahead of Steven Everly of Knoxville, 66-28%. A third candidate, Stephanie Jones of Knoxville, drew attention mainly for an arrest shortly after filing, and won less than 7%.

Democrat Dick Schrad, the former Knoxville City Manager, was a two to one primary winner over 2008 House loser James Demichelis.

July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Dick Schrad for Senate, Sinclair for Iowa Both candidates are deficit spending. Schrad had $2,201.41 on hand with a little more than that, $2,458.73, in loans outstanding. Sinclair has more on hand, $4,294.73, but has $8100 in loans out.

House District 27
Registration: D 5329, R 6313, N 6345, total 18004, R +984
Incumbent: Joel Fry, R-Osceola, no Democratic candidate

 Fry knocked off Democrat Mike Reasoner with a solid 57% win in one of 2010's bigger upsets. Reasoner was from Creston, in Union County, which is now out of the district.  The district keeps Decatur and Fry's home County, Clarke. It adds Wayne County and most of Lucas County including Chariton.

Fry drew a nuisance primary challenge from James Demichelis, Junior., not to be confused with the Democrat in the Senate race. Father and son Some Dudes of different parties. Fry easily won 86-14%.

This is the most Democratic seat that the Democrats left officially uncontested, number 60 on the depth chart. But there's kinda sorta a Democrat in the race: Ruth Smith of Lamoni filed as an independent on the last day of filing. Smith ran for the Senate twice as a Democrat, losing to Kim Reynolds in 2008 and to Joni Ernst in the 2011 special when Reynolds became lieutenant governor.

July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Fry for Iowa House

House District 28
Registration: D 5408, R 7014, N 6528, total 18959, R +1606
Open Seat; Rich Arnold, R-Russell, retiring.

It's a culture clash race, as home birth meets home school.

Republican Greg Heartsill, a "homeschool(er) with nine children," outraised Christian bookstore owner Len Gosseling by several orders of magnitude, and outpolled him 76-24% in the primary. He faces Democrat Megan Suhr in the fall. She's a doula, which is a birth coach and assisant.

Rich Arnold has held the seat since 1994, winning comfortably in recent years. The line changes cost the seat about 1000 Republicans and turn a good GOP district into a swing seat. Lucas County gets split for the first time since Iowa started Clean Redistricting (TM) in 1981, and with Chariton going west to Fry's district, this seat has the smaller, eastern part. The chunk of Marion County expands, to take in Knoxville and almost the whole county (but not Pella), and adds part of southern Jasper.

July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Heartsill for Iowa, Megan Suhr for Iowa It looks like Heartsill is starting to spend. He took in $5,764.50 post-primary but spent $7,075.65, for an on hand balance of $1,533.36. Suhr has $3,284.98. Or "had"; as I write the July 19 reports are a month old and no one but the insiders will know more until October.

Senate District 14, House District 27 & 28: District of the Day 1 - 5/12/2011 | District of the Day 2 - 3/16/2012

District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 14, Iowa House District 27 & 28

Senate District 14
Registration: D 12402, R 13845, N 15503, total 41776, R +1443
Open Seat; Paul McKinley, R-Chariton, retiring. Contested primaries in both parties.

Sure, the leadership challenge ahead of the anticipated loss in the Marion special senate election probably played the biggest role in Paul McKinley's retirement. But it's worth noting that on Map Day, he went from a 3844 Republican registration edge to a much more swingy 622. Caucus activity has boosted Republican rolls, but it's still potentially competitive.

The new seat includes four whole counties - Clarke, Lucas, Decatur and Wayne - plus most of Mahaska, with the exception of Pella. It also has a chunk of southern Jasper County around Monroe and adds a little more to that piece: Sully, Reasnor, Lynnville, and all the way up to the Newton city limits. Bleeding Heartland has a good look at the district.

Wayne County supervisor Amy Sinclair was first to announce on the Republican side. Wayne is the smallest county in the district, so it looks like Steven Everly of Knoxville sees an opportunity too. Everly works for a lighting company and his biggest internet footprint is a lawsuit the company filed against the Knoxville school district. Stephanie Jones of Knoxville was the third Republican to file. Some Dude Larry Steele had also announced, but moved to Des Moines and filed in House 36 instead.

Democrat Dick Schrad, the former Knoxville City Manager, has a primary with James Demichelis, who won 33% in a 2008 House race.

Only Sinclair filed a January 19 campaign finance report and she had just $630 on hand.

House District 27
Registration: D 5963, R 6687, N 7602, total 20269, R +724
Incumbent: Joel Fry, R-Osceola; primary challenge

One of 2010's upsets, Fry knocked off Democrat Mike Reasoner with a solid 57% win. Reasoner was from Creston and the old lines included most of Union County. The new district removes all of Union and keeps Decatur and Fry's home County, Clarke. It adds Wayne County and most of Lucas County including Chariton.

In addition to getting geographically bigger, Fry's seat gets a little closer partisan split. He lost about 400 Republicans with redistricting. Reasoner managed to hang on for four terms despite the GOP edge.

Primary challenger James Demichelis, Jr. of Chariton is not to be confused with the Democrat in the Senate race. Father and son Some Dudes?

Campaign finance reports: Fry for Iowa House

House District 28
Registration: D 6439, R 7158, N 7901, total 21507, R +719
Open Seat; Rich Arnold, R-Russell, retiring. Contested Republican primary

The new map changes the lines substantially. Lucas County gets split for the first time since Iowa started Clean Redistricting (TM) in 1981, and with Chariton going west to Fry's district, this seat has the smaller, eastern part. The chunk of Marion County expands, to take in Knoxville and almost the whole county (but not Pella), and adds part of southern Jasper.

Arnold was first elected in 1994 and won with 67% in both 2008 and 2010. But the changes cost the seat about 1000 Republicans and turn a good GOP district into a swing seat.

Democrat Megan Suhr was first to announce. Republican Greg Heartsill, a "homeschool(er) with nine children," looks to be the Republican frontrunner. Heartsill outraised Christian bookstore owner Len Gosseling by several orders of magnitude.

Campaign finance reports: Len Gosselink for State Representative, Heartsill for Iowa

Original post 5/12/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate,  House

Day 9 of Filing

The Republican 1st Congressional District primary is now official, as Rod Blum joins Ben Lange on the ballot.

That tops today's list of filing, but my local readers will be more interested in Dick Schwab. The Solon school board member filed in House District 73. He'll have a Democratic primary with former West Branch city council member David Johnson; the winner faces GOP incumbent Jeff Kaufmann of Wilton in a Democratic-leaning district.

We have two News To Me Republican primary challenges, in what's starting to look like a trend. Matthew Ung of Sioux City House District 6, held by fellow Republican Ron Jorgensen. He's young, he's teapartyish, he writes letters to the editor in bulk... he's Some Dude.

James Demichelis, Jr. of Chariton ran a a Democrat against Rich Arnold in 2008. This year he filed as a Republican and is challenging freshman Rep. Joel Fry, R-Osceola in House District 27. S - O - M - _, D - U - D - _ , can I buy an E.

In another GOP primary challenge, Kevin Wolfswinkel of Sibley is challenging Rep. Jeff Smith, R-Okoboji, in House District 1. Both filed today; Wolfswinkel seems to be running to the right.

Larry McKibben is officially on the comeback trail. The Marshalltown Republican filed today in Senate District 36. He'll have a primary with two-time unsuccessful House candidate Jane Jech. The winner will face McKibben's successor, Democrat Steve Sodders.

In the two year race for Senate District 49, Dorothy O'Brien of Clinton joins Rita Hart on the Democratic primary ballot. Winner faces 2010 near-winner Andrew Naeve.

Burlington veteran Brad Bourn filed on the Republican line in Senate District 44. His challenge to Democratic incumbent Tom Courtney is steeper than Snake Alley.

Altoona city council member Joe Riding filed in open House District 30. He announced well before GOP incumbent Kim Pearson announced her retirement after one term.

Marshalltown Republican Allen Burt filed in House 71 against Democratic incumbent Mark Smith.

Sioux City freshman Democrat Chris Hall filed in House District 13. He'll face Republican freshman Jeremy Taylor in the only two incumbent matchup on the House side in November.

Significant non-filing news today:

Sac and Fox tribal executive Christina Blackcloud-Garcia announced in open Tama County based House District 72, where Republican Lance Horbach is retiring.

In open Senate District 42, Fort Madison mayor Steve Ireland is dropping out of the Democratic primary. This leaves three Democrats in the running for Gene Fraise's open seat: Bob Morawitz and Donna Amandus, both of Fort Madison, and Rich Taylor of Mount Pleasant. Winner faces Republican Larry Kruse in a good Democratic seat.

And in open Senate District 6, where Republican Steve Kettering is retiring, Carroll's Douglas Burns reports:

Carroll Democrat Mary Bruner, a candidate for the new Iowa Senate District 6, is getting positive press in the northern part of the newly drawn political territory on a crucial issue: dredging in Storm Lake.

For years, The Storm Lake Times has aggressively advocated for improvements to the lake.

The newspaper in its Feb. 29 issue credited Bruner — who is a cousin of State Senate Majority Leader Michael Gronstal, D-Council Bluffs — with “interceding” on behalf of Storm Lake to secure $1.5 million in dredging funds for next year.

In other words, The Times, in one of its top front-page stories, is giving Bruner credit for doing Senate work before she’s even elected, a political boon for the Carroll banker in Buena Vista County.

Significantly, Burns also says: "Carroll County Republicans, working with Gov. Terry Branstad and other party leaders, have sought to recruit candidates from Carroll County but have been turned down by at least two well-known Carroll residents who would have been strong contenders." The combination of a solid candidate, family ties -- was I just saying I hope Gronstal has a path to 26 that doesn't run through Oskaloosa? -- and Republican recruitment failure puts this seemingly unlikely western Iowa turf on the possible pickup list.

Routine incumbent filings on Day 9:

Gary Worthan, R-Storm Lake, in House District 11

Greg Forristall, R-Macedonia, in House District 22

Brian Quirk, D-New Hampton, in House District 52

Tyler Olson, D-Cedar Rapids, in House District 65

Todd Taylor, D-Cedar Rapids, in House District 70

Mary Wolfe, D-Clinton in House District 98

District of the Day: Senate District 14, House District 27 and 28

District of the Day: Senate District 14, House District 27 and 28

Senate District 14

Registration: D 12299, R 12921, N 14401, total 39645, R+ 622
Incumbent: Paul McKinley, R-Chariton UPDATE November 2: McKinley retiring.

The Senate minority leader is now getting his third district, with his native Lucas County the only constant. McKinley started out in 2000 by knocking off John Judge, who filled out the last two years of Patty's term when she was elected Secretary of Ag, in a sprawling six-county border district that ran from Bloomfield to Osceola. The district shifted north and added all of GOP-friendly Marion County and Mcinley easily won two more terms.

McKinley's new territory cuts the old Judge base in Monroe County out for the first time. He gets back Clarke and Lucas, which he had in 2000, and adds Decatur for the first time. To the north, McKinley keeps most of Marion County, but loses Pella. He keeps a small piece of Jasper County around Monroe and adds a little more to that piece: Sully, Reasnor, Lynnville, and all the way up to the Newton city limits.

The changes make McKinley's district significantly less Republican. He goes from a Republican voter registration edge of 3844 to a much more swingy 622. Isn't he the one who said redistricting is Iowa's version of term limits? In any case, McKinley briefly expressed higher ambitions in 2009 when he announced for governor, only to bail when Branstad came in to clear the field. Paul's in his early 60s so any ambitions need to happen fairly soon. But for the 2012 cycle I expect him to run again in the new seat in the hopes of picking up a couple senators and taking the majority.

House District 27

Registration: D 5913, R 6307, N 7046, total 19283, R+ 394
Incumbent: Joel Fry, R-Osceola

One of last year's upsets, Fry, 35, knocked off Democrat Mike Reasoner with a solid 57% win. Reasoner was from Creston and the old lines included most of Union County. The new district removes all of Union and keeps Decatur and Fry's home County, Clarke. It adds Wayne County and most of Lucas County including Chariton.

In addition to getting geographically bigger, Fry's seat gets a little closer partisan split. The old seat had a GOP registration edge of 791, and Reasoner managed to hang on for four terms. The new seat has about 400 fewer Republicans.

House District 28

Registration: D 6386, R 6614, N 7355, total 20362, R+ 228
Incumbent: Rich Arnold, R-Russell retiring, open seat

UPDATE October 27: Democrat Megan Day Suhr announces.

UPDATE May 18: Reader American007 cites Chariton newspaper report that Arnold is retiring. Knoxville Journal-Express:

“After careful consideration, I’ve decided not to seek re-election to the House. It’s truly been an honor and privilege to serve Iowans and to have been a part of Iowa’s citizen government,” said Arnold. “Meeting and working with my constituents has been one of the greatest pleasures of my experience as a representative. I appreciate all of the support, input and encouragement over the years.”

Maybe Van Engelenhoven has an escape route now?

Arnold was first elected in 1994 and his toughest scrape was getting paired in the 2001 map. The other guy, Jim Van Engelenhoven, moved and got paired again this time. He won with 67% in both 2008 and 2010. The new map changes the lines substantially. Lucas County gets split for the first time since Iowa started Clean Redistricting (TM) in 1981, and with Chariton going west to Fry's district, Arnold gets the smaller, eastern part: Williamson and his town, Russell. He loses his piece of Mahaska and all of Monroe County, which becomes the core of new, empty House 80. His chunk of Marion County expands, at Van Engelenhoven's expense, to take in Knoxville and almost the whole county (but not Pella), and he also gets part of southern Jasper. The changes cost Arnold 1000 Republicans and turn a good GOP district into a swing seat.

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