District Of The Day 3: Iowa Senate District 19, This Is Where Your District Went and Iowa House 38

Senate District 19
Registration: D 11533, R 15078, N 11859, total 38518, R +3545
Incumbent: Jack Whitver, R-Ankeny; holdover seat

Ankeny doesn't have primaries, it has conventions. The first one was in January 2011, when just re-elected Senator Larry Noble resigned to join the Branstad 5.0 Administration.  After six candidates and five ballot, the winner was ex-Cyclone footballer and Drake law student Jack Whitver, who had lost a 2006 House race on about as different a turf as you can imagine, inner city Des Moines, to Ako Abdul-Samad.

After the convention, the special election itself was just a formality (63%-37%) And the only new territory he needs to learn before 2014 is whatever new subdivision gets built. Senate 19 sheds almost a whole House district worth of population to the west, as Ankeny is 3/4 of a Senate district in population.

This Is Where Your District Went
Registration: D 5380, R 8611, N 6151, total 20168, R +3231
No incumbent, no Democratic candidate

Is there anyone who reads this blog who does not know that This Is Where Your District Went means House 37? I even count that way now: 34, 35, 36, This Is Where Your District Went, 38, 39... For those who don't get it, read the original post.

Ankeny has grown enough in the past decade that, for the first time, it gets split into two House districts. Old House District 70 was, basically, the city of Ankeny, which with its 2000 population of 27,000 was about 90% of a House seat. By 2010 Ankeny had grown to more than 45,000 and now dominates two House seats.

The empty northern seat is the more Republican of the two and attracted six GOP primary candidates, the biggest field in the state. Everyone was betting on this going to a special convention with no one breaking 35%. Everyone except Jim Robidoux , who set out to win it all on Primary Day and almost did it, falling just 20 votes short. He tried to make the People's Choice argument at the convention, but got just one of the 23 central committee votes and was eliminated on the first ballot.

Two other candidates focused on getting their people onto the central committee. Ron Paulite Matt DeVries finished second in the voting, close behind Robidoux, and was expected to win the convention But instead, the nod went to third place candidate John Landon, who won just 15% on Primary Day yet won the nomination by one vote at the convention.

TheIowaRepublican's Craig Robinson decried the process:

It’s surprising to me how easily the convention delegates disregarded the primary vote.  I understand that this is the process when no candidate receives 35 percent of the vote, but completely ignoring the will of the people could have future consequences that are not good for Landon or the Republican Party.

Ironically, Robinson lives in the Ankeny-based district -- and voted for Landon in the primary.

With sore feelings like that, I thought one of the "losers" might go independent, but the only one who filed, one N. John Boehm (Some Dude-Ankeny), was not among the also-rans. Democrat Neal Tracy filed in March, but took his name off the ballot.

July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Friends for Landon

House District 38
Registration: D 6153, R 6467, N 5708, total 18350, R +314
Incumbent: Kevin Koester, R-Ankeny

This is the tipping point of the House: the 51st most Democratic seat.

Koester is in an odd position. Just two years ago he sailed into his second term unopposed. Then he tried for the move up at the Senate convention, but not only lost -- he was the second of six candidates eliminated, denied without even the bronze to show for it.

So it seemed he might be vulnerable to one of the many primary challenges that were in the water this June... but the only opposition came from perennial candidate Brett Nelson. Koester easily dispatched him, as he had in 2008. Some states have what they call "sore loser" laws which prevent defeated primary candidates from running in the general election. Iowa, however, does not, so Nelson is back as an independent and presumably declaring his 85-15% primary loss only a flesh wound.

The more serious threat comes from the Democrat, former Des Moines School Board member John Phoenix. This the more Democratic Ankeny seat, going south to the Des Moines city limits.

July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Kevin Koester for House, John Phoenix for House, Koester isn't taking it for granted, with $16,777.55 on hand. Phoenix has $4,925.46, with $500 in recent labor money. Nelson did not have a committee for either the primary or independent runs.

Senate District 19, This Is Where Your District Went and House District 38: District of the Day 1 - 5/19/2011 | District of the Day 2 - 3/16/2012

District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 19, Iowa House District 37 & 38

Senate District 19
Registration: D 12381, R 15649, N 12492, total 40576, R +3268
Incumbent: Jack Whitver, R-Ankeny; holdover seat

Ankeny has grown enough in the past decade that, for the first time, it gets split into two House districts. Old House District 70 was, basically, the city of Ankeny, which with its 2000 population of 27,000 was about 90% of a House seat. By 2010 Ankeny had grown to more than 45,000 and now dominates two House seats and is 3/4 of a Senate seat. Senate 19 sheds almost a whole House district worth of population to the west, including Polk City, Grimes and Johnston (which doubled over the decade).

This had been Jeff Lamberti's home base until he left to challenge Leonard Boswell in 2006. Democrats recruited a perfect candidate, Ankeny mayor Merle Johnson, but he came up just short against Larry Noble. Noble won an uncontested race in 2010, then immediately stepped down to become Public Safety commissioner in the Branstad Administration.

In the January 2011 hurry-up special, Republicans had a hard-fought convention, with six candidates and five ballots. Winner Whitver is an ex-Cyclone footballer and a Drake law student, who had lost a 2006 House race on about as different a turf as you can imagine, inner city Des Moines, to Ako Abdul-Samad. Whitver easily won the special 63%-37%. In his early 30s, he's definitely on the GOP rising star list, and he has a couple more years to work the shrunken district before he's up in `14.

Campaign finance reports: Friends of Whitver

House District 37, better know as This Is Where Your District Went
Registration: D 5756, R 8836, N 6501, total 21123, R +3080
No incumbent; contested Republican primary

I dubbed this one "This Is Where Your District Went" in honor of all the rural House Republicans who got paired up. Ankeny has grown enough in the past decade that, for the first time, it gets split into two House districts. Old House District 70 was, basically, the city of Ankeny, which with its 2000 population of 27,000 was about 90% of a House seat. By 2010 Ankeny had grown to more than 45,000 and now dominates two House seats.

The empty northern seat is the more Republican of the two and has attracted six GOP primary candidates, the biggest field in the state:

• Tea Partier Stacy Rogers was first to announce. Rogers for Iowa had $1395 in the bank at the January 19 finance report.
• Ron Paul backer Matt DeVries took his first shot at the legislature last year at the convention for the Senate 35 special. DeVries for Iowa led fundraising with $3424 cash on hand.
• Jim Robidoux is a middle school Spanish teacher. Robidoux for Iowa House had just opened its bank account with $200.
• Attorney Jeff Wright was first to file. Jeff Wright for Iowa had $427 on hand.
• Jacob Mason, another attorney, filed on the last day.
• First time candidate John Landon. Landon had spent a bit more than the others, just a bit; Friends for Landon had $1745 in the bank on January 19.

This seat is more likely than any other in the state to see no candidate get to 35% and go to a convention. Ankeny voted similarly to Iowa as a whole on caucus night, but of course what matters is who stuck around late on caucus night to fill those central committee seats. My bet is a convention scenario would help DeVries.

Whichever Republican emerges from this mess will face Democrat Neal Tracy of Ankeny.

Outside of Ankeny, new District 37 goes north to pick up Alleman and east to the Bondurant city line.

House District 38
Registration: D 6625, R 6813, N 5991, total 19453, R +188
Incumbent: Kevin Koester, R-Ankeny; Primary challenge

The comforts of home seem to have outweighed the prospects of redder turf for Koester. New 38 goes south to the Des Moines city limits, and includes Saylorville.

Koester easily beat a primary opponent in 2008 when Republican Carmine Boal retired. He drew a competitive (54%-46%) challenge from Democrat Matt Pfaltzgraf.

Koester drew a bye in 2010, then tried for a move-up in January 2011 when the Senate seat opened up. But in a rare rebuke to a just re-elected legislator, he was the second of six candidates eliminated at the nominating convention.

So there may be primary vulnerability. Challenger Brett H. Nelson of Saylor Township ran for this seat in 2002, finishing fourth in a four way primary.

Former Des Moines School Board member John Phoenix is in for the Democrats. With a very close party balance and a solid candidate, look for this one on the target list.

Campaign finance reports: Kevin Koester for House

Original post 5/19/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House

Breitbach Announces in Senate 28

Dem Phoenix announces against Koester in Ankeny's House 38

Two candidates who lost close 2010 House races are likely to face off in a no-incumbent Senate race in the state's northeast corner.

Insurance agent Mike Breitbach, a Republican, has announced in Senate District 28, which is all of Clayton and Allamakee Counties and parts of Winneshiek (including Decorah) and Fayette (NOT including Oelwein) counties in Northeast Iowa.

Brietbach lost to Democratic incumbent Roger Thomas by an unexpectedly close 122 votes in 2010. However, the Republican had a 500+ margin in Delaware County, which is not in this district. Thomas won their mutual home county, Clayton, by a similar margin, and the Democrat's edge in Fayette proved to be decisive.

Still, Brietbach has some name ID in that end of the district, which will be new turf for Democrat John Beard. The Decorah Democrat was a one-term House member in a Winneshiek-Fayette district, winning in 2008 but losing in `10 to late-starting Republican Bob Hager.

On paper, the seat has a GOP registration edge (1584 on Map Day, I'd say new numbers should be ready within the month). But it's been swingy in the past. Winneshiek, historically GOP, trended very Democratic in 2008, but swung back in 2010. Maybe if Newt gets nominated, Luther grad Calista Bisek (aka Mrs. Gingrich III) will pay a visit?

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Also announcing, on the Democratic side: former Des Moines School Board member John Phoenix in south Ankeny based House District 38. It's the more Democratic of the two Ankeny seats (+191 registration on Map Day, though post-caucus that may be R+something). But it's where GOP incumbent Kevin Koester lives, and where he decided to run for a third term. With a good party balance and a solid candidate, look for this one on the target list. The north Ankeny seat, House 37 (This Is Where Your District Went) is open and looks set for a multi-way GOP primary.

Crowded Field in House 37

It's already been determined the the prize open House seat for Democrats is House 36 in northwest Des Moines, where incumbent Janet Petersen is decamping for a safe Senate Seat. Four Democrats ahev already announced and two more may yet jump in.

The seat that's numerically next, across the county in north Ankeny, appears to be the primary battleground for Republicans. I dubbed this one "This Is Where Your District Went," in honor of all the rural House Republicans who got paired up.

Ankeny has grown enough in the past decade that, for the first time, it gets split into two House districts. Old House District 70 was, basically, the city of Ankeny, which with its 2000 population of 27,000 was about 90% of a House seat. By 2010 Ankeny had grown to more than 45,000 and now dominates two House seats.

Incumbent Kevin Koester is in the south Ankeny District 38, a near-even swing seat. Open District 37 has a GOP registration edge of 2368 (as of April; I'll update all those numbers sometime post-caucus. They'll all get more Republican, and the Republicans will act like that means something more than one party having a contested caucus and one not.)

Candidate Jim Robidoux, a middle school Spanish teacher, is kind enough to list five potential primary opponents on his web site:

Tea Partier Stacey Rogers, best known for getting in the President's face with cohort Ryan Rhodes, was first in.

A pair of attorneys: Jacob Mason and Jeff Wright.

First time candidate John Landon.

Ron Paul backer Matt DeVries took his first shot at the legislature last year at the convention for the Senate 35 special, losing out on the seat eventually won by Jack Whitver. (Remember: Koester, the sitting state rep, not only lost the nod but was the second of the five candidates eliminated.)

And that's the larger point here: the convention. State law requires 35 percent in a primary to win a nomination, otherwise it goes to a convention. For legislative seats, the deciders are county central committee members from the precincts in the district. For county offices, it's the county convention delegates. Either way, the deciders are chosen on caucus night. One more reason to stay in your own party's caucus in Polk County (see also House 77 in Johnson County), and to stick around past the "voting" and through the delegate and committee electing.

See, the way GOP caucuses work, there's no direct connection between the "straw vote" count that's reported and the delegates that are elected. You can go to your caucus and "vote" for Mitt or Newt, and then go home. But it's the people who stay behind (mr subliminal says Ron Paul) who elect those delegates and committee members. So in June when your six way primary is indecisive, the votes go to the people who stuck around.

Landon Announces in House 37

Nasty in North Ankeny?

That open, good Republican district on the north side of Ankeny won't go without a (in)fight:

Pledging to be an aggressive leader for a balanced state budget, economic development, education reform, and agriculture, Ankeny resident John Landon today announced his candidacy for the Republican nomination for Iowa’s State House District 37.

Landon joins tea partier Stacey Rogers in the race. Ankeny is now represented by Republican Kevin Koester, but the district grew so much last decade it was literally split in half. (My best line of the year: "All you western Iowa rural Republicans who got paired? This is where your district went.") Koester is staying with his house in new District 37, a swing district which actually has a slight Democratic edge.

Taking any wagers? In a GOP primary, my money is always on Tea.

Ankeny Again

Ankeny Again: Name Surfaces in House 37

Yesterday I noted that state rep Kevin Koester (R-Ankeny) is running for re-election in House 38, the southern Ankeny district, and noted that vacant House 37, the north part of town, is a stronger GOP seat.

A reader gets me up to speed and points me to the website of Stacey Rogers, a recent UI law grad last seen clerking for Senator Mark "Chickenman" Chelgren.

Pour yourself a big hot cup of tea and peruse the site, which emphasizes "Supporting Voter ID at the Ames Straw Poll" (the candidate is wearing a Bachmann shirt), her work at "the Goldwater Institute in Phoenix, one of the conservative/libertarian think tanks now suing to repeal Obamacare," and her endorsement from Tea Party Kommandant Ryan Rhodes. I'll give her this: Rogers is clear about where she's coming from.

The This Is Where Your District Went district has a solid but not insurmountable GOP registration edge of about 2300 (compared to the slight Democratic tilt of Koester's District 38). With a good candidate and a good year, the right Democrat could pull it off. Does another Republican get in and play the electability card? Does that even matter in a Republican primary anymore?

Koester stays put

Koester stays put, announces in House 38

The comforts of home seem to have outweighed the prospects of redder turf for two-term state rep Kevin Koester. The Ankeny Republican has announced for re-election in House District 38, where he currently lives.

Koester is all alone in House 38, but there was a temptation next door: open House District 37, also known to my readers as the This Is Where Your District Went district.

Ankeny grew from 27,000 in the 2000 census to 45,000 in 2010, and for the first time was split into two House seats. The north district, 37, is solidly Republican, but the south seat, 38, is a swing seat with a slight Democratic tilt.

Koester tried for a move-up in January when the Ankeny based Senate seat opened up. But in a rare rebuke to a just re-elected legislator, he was one of the first candidates eliminated at a multi-candidate party nominating convention. (Jack Whitver won that and the election.) So there may be primary vulnerability, which an opportunistic move wouldn't help. Staying in the tougher district may thus have been the smarter choice. Or it may be as simple as not wanting to move.

District of the Day: Senate District 19, House District 37 and 38

District of the Day: Senate District 19, House District 37 and 38



All you western Iowa rural Republicans who got paired? This is where your district went.

Ankeny has grown enough in the past decade that, for the first time, it gets split into two House districts. Old House District 70 was, basically, the city of Ankeny, which with its 2000 population of 27,000 was about 90% of a House seat. By 2010 Ankeny had grown to more than 45,000 and now dominates two House seats and is 3/4 of a Senate seat.

Senate District 19

Registration: D 11993, R 14170, N 11765, total 37984, R+ 2177
Incumbent: Jack Whitver, R-Ankeny

To get back down to the right population, this Senate district sheds almost a whole House district worth of turf to the west, including Polk City, Johnston (which doubled over the decade) and Grimes. That's all basically Erik Helland's turf, as two House districts turn into three.

This had been Jeff Lamberti's home base until he left to challenge Leonard Boswell in 2006. Democrats recruited a perfect candidate, Ankeny mayor Merle Johnson, but he came up just short against Larry Noble. Noble won an uncontested race in 2010, then immediately stepped down to become Public Safety commissioner in the Branstad Administration.

In the hurry-up special in January, Republicans had a hard-fought convention, with six candidates and five ballots. Winner Whitver is an ex-Cyclone footballer and a Drake law student, who had lost a 2006 House race on about as different a turf as you can imagine, inner city Des Moines, to Ako Abdul-Samad. Whitver easily won the special 63%-37%. Just 30, he's definitely on the GOP rising star list, and he has almost a full term to work the shrunken district before he's up in `14.

House District 37

Registration: D 5692, R 8060, N 6191, total 19972, R+ 2368
No incumbent

House District 38

Registration: D 6301, R 6110, N 5574, total 18012, D+ 191
Incumbent: Kevin Koester, R-Ankeny

Since Ankeny is about a House seat and a half, it needs a little extra turf. New District 37 goes north to pick up Alleman and east to the Bondurant city line. New 38 goes south to the Des Moines city limits, and includes Saylorville.

Kevin Koester easily beat a primary opponent in 2008 when Republican Carmine Boal retired. He drew a competitive (54%-46%) challenge from Democrat Matt Pfaltzgraf. Koester drew a bye in 2010, while Pfaltzgraf was in Iowa City running the No on 21 Bars campaign that set student turnout records but fell short.

But since then Koester's luck has changed. He got burned in the 2011 special Senate nominating convention, won by Whitver. In a major slap in the face to a sitting House member, not only was he not nominated, he was the second of six candidates to be eliminated.

Koester also finds himself on the wrong side of the district line. He's in the south, in the Democratic leaning district, while 37, to the north, is the one with a solid GOP margin. A move in an area with such high growth would normally be OK, but Koester's rejection by party activists might see him vulnerable to a primary. Pfaltzgraf, meanwhile, could head back home.

New Map | New Map (Insets) | Old Map