Showing posts with label Greg Grupp. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Greg Grupp. Show all posts

Friday, August 17, 2012

District Of The Day 3: Iowa Senate District 7, Iowa House District 13 & 14

Senate District 7
Registration: D 11265, R 9067, N 9818, total 30189, D +2198
Incumbent: Rick Bertrand, R-Sioux City; holdover seat

Bertrand lost a close `08 House race, then beat Democrat Rick Mullin by just 222 votes in 2010. This is the second most Democratic seat held by a Republican; the lines change very little. Bertrand's fate may depend on the cycle, but with an odd numbered seat he holds over till 2014.

House District 13
Registration: D 5368, R 4889, N 4981, total 15263, D +479
Incumbents: Chris Hall, D-Sioux City; Jeremy Taylor, R-Sioux City.

Considering that there were 27 House members paired up on Map Day, it's remarkable how well things shook out. There was one epic primary, and this: the only two-incumbent general election House match-up in the state. And the co-incumbents are mirror images: both young, both in their first term, both took over from retiring senior Democrats, both won by good not great margins.

The new map splits Sioux City into roughly the same three districts -- east, west, and south -- as 2001, with the line between east and west shifting. Only one precinct moved, and it was Taylor's, drawing him into Hall's district. Taylor must figure the numbers favor him in 13; Hall must figure the turf favors him. Turf and party ID give the edge to Hall, as does all the positive PR he got recently for helping alert neighbors to a fire in their building and  winning a Sioux City Fire Department Life Saver Award.

But both teams will throw a lot at this race, as you'll see:

July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Hall for Iowa, Taylor for Iowa House Hall raised $18,621.37 in the weeks after the primary, including $5500 in labor money, and has $48,383.41 in the bank. Taylor raised $7,003.68 in recent weeks, including $1000 from the ideological Hawkeye PAC and $500 from the chiropractor's PAC. He has $28,056.13 on hand.

House District 14
Registration: D 5897, R 4178, N 4837, total 14926, D +1719
No Incumbent

In the open seat, Democrat David Dawson, Taylor's 2010 opponent, announced early. In February banker Greg Grupp announced for the Republicans. Dawson has the party edge and residual name ID in a district that hasn't changed much, except of course for losing its incumbent.

July 19 Campaign Finance Report: Dawson For Iowa House, Grupp For Iowa House Another race both teams are serious about. Grupp has the edge with $21,064.95 on hand. Dawson has $17,586.38 in the bank including $3000 in recent labor money.

Senate District 7, House District 13 & 14: District of the Day 1 - 5/03/2011 | District of the Day 2 - 3/16/2012

Friday, March 16, 2012

District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 7, Iowa House District 13 & 14

Senate District 7
Registration: D 13202, R 9887, N 12311, total 35446, D +3315
Incumbent: Rick Bertrand, R-Sioux City; holdover seat

It's an all-freshman delegation in the core Sioux City districts, where five legislators retired in 2010.

Republican Rick Bertrand lost a close `08 House race to Democrat Roger Wendt. He switched to the Senate race when Democrat Steve Warnstadt retired in 2010, and beat Democratic activist Rick Mullin by just 222 votes.

The new district changes little: a slight line shift on the south, picking up two precincts and a rural township added on the east, but the party balance stays almost identical.

Bertrand's fate may depend on the cycle, but with an odd numbered seat he holds over till 2014 and gets the lower turnout gubernatorial year, and Woodbury is historically a low turnout county.

Campaign finance report: Team Bertrand

House District 13
Registration: D 6366, R 5324, N 6313, total 18030, D +1042
Incumbents: Chris Hall, D-Sioux City; Jeremy Taylor, R-Sioux City.

The new map splits Sioux City into roughly the same three districts -- east, west, and south -- as 2001, with the line between east and west shifting. Only one precinct moved, and it was Taylor's, drawing him into Hall's district. So it was a My District Just Not My House thing, but the open House 14 is the more Democratic seat. Taylor must figure the numbers favor him in 13; Hall must figure the turf favors him. The result: House 13 will be the only two-incumbent general election House matchup in the state.

Both legislators won by similar, 600ish vote margins in 2010. Taylor also looked like a winner for a few hours on Election Night 2008, until absentees put him 280 votes short of Wes Whitead in old House District 2. He came back to take the seat in 2010 when Whitead retired.

Hall beat Republican Cate Bryan when Democrat Roger Wendt retired in ill health (he passed away soon after).

Taylor for Iowa House showed $22,743 in the bank on January 19; Hall for Iowa reported $23,841. So, evenly matched on seniority, evenly matched on victory margin, and evenly matched on money. Turf and party give the edge to Hall, but both teams will throw a lot at this race.

House District 14
Registration: D 6836, R 4563, N 5998, total 17416, D +2273
No Incumbent

In the open seat, Democrat David Dawson, Taylor's 2010 opponent, announced early. Dawson for Iowa House had $4575 left in the tank after that run and has increased it to $10,682. In February banker Greg Grupp announced for the Republicans. Dawson has the party edge and residual name ID in a district that hasn't changed much, except of course for losing its incumbent.

Original post 5/03/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House

Monday, February 27, 2012

First Day of Filing

Locals Johnson, Sherman among first group

Two local legislative candidates turned their paperwork in to the Secretary of State on today's first day of filing.

West Branch Democrat David Johnson has filed in House District 73, now held by Republican Jeff Kaufmann. The seat covers all of Cedar County, Scott Township and Greater Metro Solon in Johnson, and the GOP stronghold of Wilton in Muscatine County. Overall the seat leans slightly Democratic.

In no-incumbent House 77 in western and southern Johnson County, North Liberty Republican Steve Sherman is officially in. He's likely to face Democratic county supervisor Sally Stutsman in this strong Democratic seat.

Matt Schultz is continuing the tradition that dates back to the dawn of the net in the Paul Pate administration: daily candidate lists (pdf, bookmark-n-save). I'm more OCD (Obsessively Compulsive about Districts) more than anyone, but dang it if there STILL weren't a couple new (to me) legislative candidates whose names I hadn't seen before who filed on Day One.

  • Republican Steven Everly of Knoxville is running in open Senate District 14, the Paul McKinley seat. He works for a lighting company and his biggest internet footprint is a lawsuit the company filed against the Knoxville school district. He'll have a primary against Wayne County Supervisor Amy Sinclair. Democrat Dick Schrad, the former Knoxville City Manager, will face the winner.

  • Rick McClure of Ottumwa is again trying to challenge Democrat Mary Gaskill in House 81. He ran as an independent in 2008; now he's filed on the GOP line. He'll have to get through a primary with Blake Smith, who also filed.

    Another now-official primary is in House District 7, where Republicans Mark Frakes and Tedd Gassman will face off for the right to challenge freshman Democrat John Wittneben, a narrow winner last time.

    The early birds included a trio of youthful Republicans who'd already announced:

  • Megan Hess of Spencer, a former Steve King intern, in open House District 2
  • Maison Bleam of Rockwall City, the former UI student government president, filed in House 10, where he's primary-ing GOP freshman Tom Shaw.
  • And Dane Nealson in Ames-based House 45 (Beth Wessel-Kroeschell's seat).

    Other expected early birds included:
  • Adel Republican Jake Chapman in open Senate District 10
  • Attorney Jeff Wright in the Ankeny This Is Where Your District Went seat, open House 37
  • Cedar Rapids Democrat Art Staed won one House term in 2006, then lost a 13 vote squeaker to Renee Schulte. He's now trying to knock her off in House 66, and the turf looks better for him than it did last time.

    In routine incumbent filing:
  • In the safest red seat in the state, Sioux County's House 4, Republican Dwayne Alons files for another term.
  • We also have the Republican incumbent with the bluest seat, Zwingle's Brian Moore in House 58. He's looking at a rematch with the Democrat he upset, Tom Schueller.
  • Marshalltown Democrat Mark Smith in House 71
  • GOP freshman Jarad Klein of Keota in Washington-Keokuk county based House 78, where he dodged a redistricting pair-up when fellow GOPer Betty DeBoef retired
  • Republican Steve Olson of DeWitt in House 97
  • And we three Scott County House incumbents: Democrat Jim Lykam in House 89, Republican Ross Paustian in House 92, and Republican Linda Miller in 94.

    And this one is an announcement but NOT a filing: Republican Greg Grupp, a Sioux City banker, in open House District 14. That's fellow Republican Jeremy Taylor's district without his house; Taylor is staying put in House 13 where he faces the state's only two incumbent House general election matchup against Democrat Chris Hall.

    Oh, yeah. Almost forgot. A couple of dudes named Boswell and Latham filed.

    The pattern is pretty consistent in this filing thing: A flurry of activity on Day One, then very little action the rest of the week and through Week Two. The filingy starts to pick up again at the beginning of Week 3, the surprises start on about Wednesday, and all hell breaks loose Friday afternoon.

    My goal the next three weeks is a daily update, though I may skip a day if it's really dead. If you file on a slow day, you might get a bigger Deeth Blog writeup. And my usual griping about You Only Get One Announcement doesn't apply: a filing is a filing. But you get no story for an announcement "announce" AFTER you file.

    I'm simultaneously working on the District Of The Day reboot. Hoping to hit with that ASAP after the March 16 filing deadline. I haven't decided on format and frequency yet; if I actually did a district a DAY the primary would be over well before I reached Chuck Isenhart and Pat Murphy in Dubuque's House 99 and 100. House Seat of the Hour, maybe? Senator of the Second?