Pledge Wrong but Vander Plaats Right

BVP Gets One Thing Right

“This is about the next generation,” Vander Plaats told reporters at a news conference on the steps of the Iowa Statehouse. “It’s about our economy, marriage and family and society.”

Well, Bob gets part of that right, anyway. This IS about the next generation. This is about alienating Generation Gaga by pandering to the prejudices of the old. Not a smart trade off in the long run.

But there is one especially pointed ROTFLMFAO line: "Presidential candidates who sign the pledge will agree to personal fidelity to his or her spouse..." Especially good with Newt Gingrich doing the famIly leader dog and pony show next Monday.

Let's see what else we pledge here...

to appoint “faithful constitutionalists” as judges, opposition to any redefinition of marriage, and prompt reform of uneconomic and anti-marriage aspects of welfare policy, tax policy and divorce law.

The Marriage Vow also outlines support for the legal advocacy for the federal Defense of Marriage Act, humane efforts to protect women and children, rejection of Sharia Islam, safeguards for all married and unmarried U.S. military service members, and commitment to downsizing government and the burden upon American families.

Again about the next generation: the gratuitous "Sharia Islam" reference embraces Steve King nativism in an increasingly immigrant America. How many presidential candidates will gleefully paint themselves into this corner chasing after that solid gold endorsement from a thrice-defeated candidate?

Vander Plaats, Hurley to unveil presidential pledge Thursday

Get out your litmus paper, we have a test



Bob Vander Plaats, who as you recall from the will he or won't he independent filing period last year is a better tease than Gypsy Rose Lee, has us waiting in antici - SAY IT! - pation again for tomorrow's news conference. He and Chuck Hurley are unveiling a "Higher Standard for Candidates" presidential pledge. In a Deeth Blog exclusive I have some sample items:

1. i PLEDGE TO CAPiTALiZE WORDS iN A BiZARRE WAY.
2. I pledge to feed my staffers nothing but Pizza Ranch Pizza. (Which would be a problem for Herman Cain except he just lost his staff.)
3. I pledge to visit the state in the spring of 2014 to help Bob with his primary for governor against Kim Reynolds and Bill Dix.
4. I commit my online supporters to a Google-bomb effort to change the top search engine result for santorum.
5. I wasn't tapping my foot, officer, I just have a wide stance.

While we wait for the rest of the Ten Commandments, here's the actual famIly leader (capItalIze the I, It's all about BOB) release.

We don't normally send out three emails within an 18-hour period and we apologize for filling up your inbox.

However, The FAMiLY LEADER believes it is important to let you know you are invited to join us at a press conference tomorrow, Thursday, July 7th, to unveil an important presidential candidate pledge document.

Chuck Hurley and I will be on the West steps of the Iowa State Capitol Building tomorrow at 11:00 AM to reveal the subject matter of this presidential candidate pledge document.

This document is designed to be signed by each presidential candidate. The signing of the pledge will be a requirement for future endorsement by The FAMiLY LEADER.

The purpose of the pledge is to have on record the personal conviction of each
presidential candidate as well as provide an opportunity for Iowans to further vet each candidate.

If you are able, please join us on the West steps of the Iowa State Capitol Building tomorrow, Thursday, July 7th at 11:00 AM!

Blessings,
Bob

Remember folks: red litmus paper is for your base. Blue is for acid. Read whatever political implications you will into that.

Is Pawlenty RC, or Generic?

Headline

Tim Pawlenty got a little good news by proxy yesterday: Sarah Huckabee Sanders, daughter of THAT Huckabee, is heading up his Ames straw poll efforts. That's of course NOT a Mike endorsement, but Huckabee pere's distaste for nominal frontrunner Mitt Romney is well known. Assume for the sake of argument that the support of the daughter implies the support of the father. Here's how I see this hand playing out:

This cycle the GOP nominating contest is about Mitt vs. Not Mitt. Sorry, Jon Huntsman: the Iowa winner always trumps the Screw Iowa candidate and thus gets to be the Not Mitt. But just being Not Mitt isn't enough. If that were true, the current trajectory pointing toward a Michele Bachmann win would be acceptable. No, Mike Huckabee wants the nominee to be an electable Not Mitt. I'm not convinced T-Paw is electable, but he is the only can of cola on the shelf that's not past the sell by date (Gingrich, Santorum) or otherwise unfit for human consumption (everyone else).

Blogger-made-good Nate Silver said last weekend that Tim Pawlenty is the RC Cola of the presidential race: "Instead of being the consensus choice, he finds himself with very little breathing room. Voters deciding between Mr. Pawlenty and Mr. Perry tend to prefer Mr. Perry, those deciding between Mr. Pawlenty and Mr. Romney tend to prefer Mr. Romney, and so forth.

(Tangent: One of the compromises a blogger made good has to make is the New York Times stylebook that Mr.'s and Ms.'s everyone. Most famously, the NYT referred to the singer of "Paradise By The Dashboard Lights" as "Mr. Loaf." We now return to our block quote already in progress.)

Put differently, Mr. Pawlenty is not intrinsically well differentiated from his opponents. A lot of voters might find him acceptable — but the types of voters who find him acceptable will also tend to find a lot of other candidates acceptable."

Silver has a good point but the wrong analogy. I think T-Paw is more like the off-brand Faygo or Doctor Thunder. The kind Mom swears are just as good for half the price, but taste funny in a way you can't describe.

If you look at the label, all the right ingredients are there: a tasty mix of social and fiscal conservativism in a blue state bottle. But Mom was looking at the coupons instead of the label and got decaf by mistake, and after one glass you left the cap off the bottle so it went flat. You keep hoping Mom will go to the store and get something else like that Perry Pop or Christie Cola (Now With Extra High Fructose Corn Syrup!) But that two liter of Pawlenty Pop just keeps staring at you every time you open the fridge.

And unfortunately for Pawlenty, he's on the market at a time when caucus shoppers are looking for Jolt Cola. Will Pawlenty find his fizz in time for Ames? Or will he be the biggest marketing flop since Decaf Mountain Dew? (You KNOW somebody got fired for that one.)

David Duke Explores Candidacy

In Other News, Modem Speeds Now Up To 28,800 Baud

And here I thought Newt Gingrich and Terry Branstad were unwelcome comebacks from the early 1990s:

Former Louisiana lawmaker and Ku Klux Klan head David Duke has begun a 25-city tour to gauge support for a possible presidential bid, The Daily Beast reported...

You know who's screwed here? Buddy Roemer. The last time he was on a ballot, as an incumbent governor in 1991, he lost the nomination to DuKKKe. If any debate sponsor was even thinking about including Roemer, they just un-invited him. (Though if Duke DOES get into a debate, pleeeeeease sit him next to Herman Cain...)

The winners here are anyone on the right spectrum of the party, as this moves the Overton window so far that even Santorum and Bachmann seem normal. Though some observers doubt that even Duke is conservative enough for the GOP base. Birtherism may have met its match with the long form proof from Hawaii, but that doesn't get at what the Obama haters are really mad about:



Reportedly that's Duke's campaign slogan. The theme song, of course:



Duke likes it but wants to drop the most controversial line. You know, "Deutschland is happy and gay."

But operatives are making every effort to infiltrate the Duke campaign:



Enough of this. If Terry Branstad is governor and David Duke is running for office, I need to set up my VCR for tonight's new episodes of "Seinfeld" and "Star Trek The Next Generation."

Lundby Runs in Marion - as Democrat

Lundby Runs in Marion - as Democrat

Just four years ago, the late Mary Lundby was leading the Republicans in the Iowa Senate. Now, in a symbolically powerful indication of the demise of the moderate wing of the GOP, her son Daniel Lundby is running for the Marion House seat she once held... but as a Democrat.

“She saw a need for fresh new ideas not fueled by party agendas, but through listening to the voters who elected her," said Daniel Lundby in his press release:

"It is that same attention my mother gave her voters that I want to bring back to the constituents of House District 68.”

Explaining his decision to switch parties, Lundby said, “I changed my party affiliation from Republican to Democrat because the Republican Party and the people I was supporting no longer placed the best interests of Iowa and its voters before their own party agenda.”

Lundby is challenging Republican Rep. Nick Wagner, who went to the House in 2008 in a seat shuffle prompted by Mary Lundby's retirement. (She had planned to run for the Board of Supervisors, but cancer that had been in remission returned and she passed away in early 2009.) Democrat Swati Dandekar went from the House to Senate, and Wagner (who lost the 2006 House race to Dandekar) won the House seat. He then, inexcusably, got an uncontested free ride last year.

Democrats had a voter registration edge of 544 as of early April in the new district. It no longer includes all of Marion, which grew too large for a House district this census. The most Republican part of town is now in speaker Kraig Paulsen's district. In addition to the bigger chunk of Marion, House 68 goes south to include Bertram and Ely, new ground for Wagner.

Democrat Adams Running in Senate 22

Democrat Adams Running in Senate 22

Spotted yesterday at the West Des Moines and Windsor Heights parades: attorney Desmund Adams, running as a Democrat in Senate District 22.

The district is currently without an incumbent. West Des Moines Republican Pat Ward, paired up to the east with Democrat Matt McCoy, called dibs before noon on Map Day. (The rumor mill also has former WHO talk star Steve Deace interested, though to correct my District of the Day observation he, like Ward, lives just east of the district line in the Polk County part of West Des Moines.)

Adams, a Drake grad (undergrad and law) has an interesting biography and a Facebook group.

The district is half Polk, half Dallas: Clive, Waukee, Windsor Heights and the Dallas County part of WDM. It has a solid, but not insurmountable, GOP voter registration edge of about 3400. Ward's old district lines were more competitive. She got by unopposed in 2008, though Democratic efforts at campaign recruitment continued to the last minute.

The Newt Reboot

The Newt Reboot

The Newt Gingrich presidential campaign (suggested slogan: Party Like It's 1994) has kinda been, from the get-go, a blast from the past. Fundraising is in self-admitted bad shape:

“Our numbers will not be as good as we would like, and candidly, the consultants left us in debt. But every single week since they left we’ve been cutting down the debt, and we raise more than we spend in a week.”

Unable to put the tab on one of the Tiffany's credit cards, Gingrich is reaching back to his speaker glory days with his new (to him) Iowa fundraising chair, Greg Ganske.

Greg Ganske?!? What, Tom Tauke and Gopher were unavailable? That suggests a new theme song, which won't need Tom Petty's approval:

Newt GIN-griiiiich, soon will be making another run
Newt GIN-griiiiich, promises something for everyone...

And that, too, seems to be the new(t) strategy: "niche issues."

As Gingrich sees it, Alzheimer’s, as well as other niche topics such as military families’ concerns and pharmaceutical issues,are priorities for passionate patches of the American electorate. By offering himself as a champion of pet causes, Gingrich believes he can sew together enough narrow constituencies to make a coalition — an unconventional one, yes, but a coalition nevertheless.

Prompting this priceless headline: Newt Gingrich bets on Alzheimer’s, other niche issues as key to a 2012 comeback. Betting on Alzheimer's for a comeback. Does that mean he hopes everyone has forgotten his disastrous tenure as speaker?

Set a course for adventure, your mind on a new(t) romance...

That one kind of speaks for itself.

The Amphibian One will visit the People's Republic next Monday on the BVP famIly leader tour. (I'm suggesting the capitalization change here; the I is upper case because it's all about Bob.)

Parade Report

Parade Report



Successfully completed the Johnson County parade trifecta today: Coralville, Oxford, and Hills. (The alternate trifecta is Sharon Center, Oxford, Hills.) I was wearing my Packer hat instead of the beret (us bald guys have to keep the sun off our heads), so I can't report on the gossip at the between parade party at Bob and Sue Dvorsky's. But as for the parades themselves, I have loads of pictures at Facebook and a few observations.

No big name politicos were on hand in Coralville this year. The biggest name I saw was Santa Claus, making an off-season appearance in Oxford and riding a motorcycle instead of the sleigh. Dave Loebsack was in two of his new towns, Bettendorf and Clinton, along with holdover Tipton. As for the presidential candidates, Bachmann, Santorum and Gingrich wisely spent their time elsewhere. A generic cross-section crowd at a parade in heavily Democratic Johnson County would be a poor use of time (but a well targeted meet and greet with GOP activists like Bachmann did Saturday is fine. Even though they're outnumbered, sheer population means there are still a lot of Republicans here.)



No presidential candidate units were sighted, either. Four years ago several of the Democratic campaigns had their own units at Coralville, as did Ron Paul on the GOP side. This year there were just party units: about 75 people on the Democratic side counting the Mitch Gross crew, a dozen or so for the GOP. Didn't spot any Republican officials or likely candidates; Democrats had most of the courthouse crew and legislative delegation on hand.

One thing the two parties had in common is the attrition rate: both lost about 3/4 of their bodies between Coralville and Oxford.

Bachmann Live Iowa City Bluebird Diner

Bachmann Live Iowa City Bluebird Diner

7:49 AM at a crowded Bluebird Diner awaiting Bachmann. Why here instead of the traditional campaign stop, the within-sight Hamburg Inn? It was Reagan Himself who started that tradition...

Looks like they overnighted here in Iowa City; saw the BAchmann Bus parked in front of the Sheraton on the way over. Looks to be 50 or so here, mostly an older crowd. 8 AM Saturday is kind of a Siberia for the Iowa City schedule. We have CNN cameras here but I don't see local cameras.

I find myself seated next to congresional candidate John Archer, who helped me out by plugging in the laptop. Archer says he mailed in the FEC paperwork yesterday. He's planning a formal announcement 7/13 and he's a s yet undecided on the presidential race.

Crowd up to 75ish (standing room, with some folks at the tables outside) at straight up 8. Bus not in sight yet but there is a large moving van. First event on the public schedule; I thing Rs care more about timeliness than Ds. I don't recognize any other interlopers. Going sans beret today in hopes of actually looking professional.

The poor DI guy next to me asked the wrong Member Of The Public for an opinion and is trapped in a monologue that is now in at least minute ten touching on religion, ethnicity, marital fidelity and who knows what. (807 now) The trickle in of latecomers has about stopped. NBC national camera sighted, but still no local TV.

8:11 and local GOP chair Bob Anderson is here (possible sign of bus movement?) 8:13 and the monologue to the DI reporter continues, moving on to judges.

Now up to 8:19. Even monologer is running out of things to say. 8:24... I should be working the room to get some Real People reacts but my mobility is limited. Crowd holding steady at about 75.

BUS HERE 8:29



8:34 The moving van was holding the spot! Bachman exits but to tune of Elvis singing "The Promised Land," (NOT Tom Petty!) State Sen. Kent Sorenson is with her. "She's a full spectrum conservative" he tells me to explain his support.

Full fledged candidate/camera/public scrum is on at 840. I got a brief handshake and overheard the chitchat: some mentions of Born In Waterloo, good rapport with crowd, lots of time with kids. Marcus (Mr. Bachmann) is working it too; confirms they stayed in town last night, he and a daughter caught some jazz fest. Happy it was free. (I resist urge to note the tax dollars we spend...)


Bachmann with local Republican John Dane.

8:48. MB still working crowd. Dropping "be sure to get out to the straw poll in Ames" a lot. Moving is difficult. Additional press and staff mean probably about 100 bodies total. She's autographing everything in sight: a hat, a cardboard coffee cup.

Sorenson sticking close to the candidate; Marcus working adjacent tables. My GOP pal Deb Thornton says she's uncommitted, but then offers praise for Herman Cain.

Rumor is this is a no speech meet and greet; feels that way. 8:55. Lots of picture posing. Looks like a retail, lock those straw poll votes in event. Looks like mostly party activists here. Doesn't matter how liberal Iowa City is; this is about the people in the room.

9:09 and the Bachmanns have been having an extended conversation with the owner and, moreso, the owner's kids. Everyone is a fan of Angry Birds. They toast, the kids with cocoa and the grownups with coffee: "To Iowa!" Smile rarely leaves face except for Sincere Listening Face.

Looks like actually ordering breakfast as of 9:14. I check in with the traveling staffer who's not sure Why Not Hamburg and when I introduce myself says "oh you're that liberal guy." So I might as well have worn the beret... meanwhile, Republicans are asking ME if there's a speech and the CNN guy is doing a live standup.



9:18. CNN interviews the candidate live while she hold a fork with a bite of scrambled eggs. Most of her reply is about How Important Iowa Is. The live shot wraps and she feeds the bite of eggs to one of the kids (her daughter it turns out). Crowd dwindling a bit.

Breakfast done by 9:24, back to working it. Due in Cedar Rapids in six minutes, gonna be a behind schedule day.

No speech; out the door at 9:32. The pattern continued: lots of chit chat about Iowa roots. Talks to Archer a couple minutes; says "we'll help you." Daughter takes breakfast remains to go. Bus pulling out 9:35. Will update later with pictures.

District of the Day: Senate District 50, House Districts 99 and 100

District of the Day: Senate District 50, House Districts 99 and 100

Senate District 50

Registration: D 17476, R 8200, N 13251, total 38953, D+ 9276
Incumbent: Pam Jochum, D-Dubuque

Our last district Draws Itself, as Dubuque is 94.6% of ideal district size. That's down from 98.6% of a district 10 years ago, and just over a whole district in 1990 when a small piece had to be carved out. This decade, to bring the population up, Sageville and the north chunk of the highly fragmented Dubuque Township are added. Redistricting consultant Jerry Mandering occasionally does work for the Dubuque city planning department; I count at least seven noncontiguous pieces of three different townships here.

None of this really matters much in a Democratic stronghold like this. Jochum moved smoothly over to the Senate in 2008 (a 70% win over a Some Dude) after 16 years in the House, when Mike Connolly retired. Her other 2008 win was getting the state constitution language modernized with the passage of what everyone called the "idiot amendment."

The line across Dubuque shifts, but there's still a north district and a south district, as there was in the 1990s as well.

House District 99

Registration: D 8894, R 4638, N 6813, total 20355, D+ 4256
Incumbent: Pat Murphy, D-Dubuque

Then-Speaker Pat Murphy was almost a victim of the 2010 zeitgeist. He'd won with a typical 69% in 2008, but Republican insurance agent Paul Kern held Murphy to 52-48 last year. It was Murphy's closest race since squeaking in by 91 votes in a 1989 special. Murphy took himself out as Democratic leader soon after the statewide results took him out as speaker.

2010 may have been a wake-up call, but things should be better for Murphy now. Party leadership means a lot of campaigning for other people instead of doorknocking south Dubuque. It also puts a special target on your back (ask Mike Gronstal). There wasn't a similar Republican tend in the district just to the south...

House District 100

Registration: D 8582, R 3562, N 6438, total 18598, D+ 5020
Incumbent: Chuck Isenhart, D-Dubuque

... where Chuck Isenhart won a second term with about the same 60something margin he had in 2008. The seat was open that year with Jochum moving over to the Senate. Isenhart won a three way primary with a clear majority. He had a second primary from Some Dude in 2010, winning with 86%.

The line across Dubuque pivots a bit, moving north in the west and south on the riverfront. Isenhart has the Loras campus and most of downtown. everything from the Illinois bridge north; Murphy has University of Dubuque and most everything south of Asbury Road.

A RAGBRAI only takes a week to cross the state; we've spent ten weeks. But much like a RAGBRAI, our journey through Iowa started at the Missouri and ends at the Mississippi. Our very last district line, between House 99 and 100, reaches the Mississippi River at the Julien Dubuque Bridge. Can't think of a more appropriate way to wrap this up.

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Payday Planets Align on 1st of tha Month

Payday Planets Align on 1st of tha Month

An update of an oldie but a goodie from the last time this happened: Several of Iowa City's larger employers -- the county, the city, the non-University parts of state government, ACT, and HyVee -- pay their employees every two weeks on a Friday. The biggest by far employer, the University, pays its employees on the first of the month.

About every 14 months or so, on average, those paydays align, and everybody gets paid on the 1st of Tha Month:



The next alignment of the local payday planets is on June 1, 2012, which points out another calendar quirk. It's Fiscal New Year's Day tomorrow, too, as the city and county start Fiscal Year 2012. 26 payrolls times 14 days in a two week pay period is 364, less than a year. That means 27 paydays fall in the fiscal year rather than 26, as payday 27 lands on June 29, 2012, the last business day of the fiscal year. Budgets have been adjusted accordingly.

Speaking of alignments of planets, there's a eclipse of the sun tomorrow, too, but it's about as barely an eclipse in as obscure a place as you can get.

District of the Day: Senate District 49, House Districts 97 and 98

District of the Day: Senate District 49, House Districts 97 and 98



Senate District 49

Registration: D 13524, R 10139, N 16918, total 40602, D+ 3385
No Incumbent (?)

There's already an announced candidate for this seat and a second contender mulling it over, even though we don't even know if it will be on next year's ballot. Odd-numbered seats normally run on the gubernatorial cycle, but this is the only odd number seat with no incumbent in residence on Map Day.

Democrat Tod Bowman beat Republican Andrew Naeve by just 70 votes last year in old Senate 13, to become the only freshman Democrat in the Senate. That seat included the city of Clinton and northern Clinton County. It went north to pull in all of Jackson County, where Bowman lives in Maquoketa. It also had a small piece of Dubuque County, up to the south city limits.

The new district turns around and faces south. Clinton County is whole, and northern Scott County is included (including LeClaire, Princeton. McCausland and Park View). Thus a district that was maybe half Clinton County is now about 3/4, and a district that had a Democratic edge of 7,500 registered voters sees that lead cut in half. Naeve actually won the Clinton County part of the district by about 500 votes. Bowman rolled up his winning margin in Jackson County, which is now gone. And there squats the toad, because Bowman is paired with fellow Democrat Tom Hancock of Epworth up in new Senate 29.

Naeve has already announced here. And Clinton Mayor Rodger Holm may or may not also be running on the GOP side.

But since Bowman was just elected last year, in an old district that overlaps this new district, he can hold over till 2014 if he moves south. Bowman can also hold over in District 29... but only if Hancock retires. (Hancock has to run either way, because his old district was even so his four year 2008 term expires.) The Democratic margin is better in District 29, and the two Democrats have till February to work things out. If no other candidate runs, perhaps former local businessman William Drayton may be interested.

House District 97

Registration: D 6174, R 5931, N 9044, total 21161, D+ 243
Incumbent: Steve Olson, R-DeWitt

Olson went to the House in 2002 when the Clinton-Camanche area was redrawn . He got a relatively close 56-44 race in 2008 but then went unopposed in 2010, which shouldn't happen in what was a near even swing seat.

And it still is a swing seat, getting even a little more Democratic. In Clinton County, Olson keeps Camanche, DeWitt and everything west. On the north, Lost Nation stays in the district and Delmar is added. The changes are marginal in Scott as Olson swaps a couple Bettendorf-bordering townships: Pleasant Valley is out, Lincoln is in. He keeps Le Claire, Princeton, and most of the Wapsi River border; Donahue and Long Grove are carved out and sent south to Ross Paustian's district.

House District 98

Registration: D 7350, R 4208, N 7874, total 19441, D+ 3142
Incumbent: Mary Wolfe, D-Clinton

The District Draws Itself, Boyee: In the 2000 Census, the city of Clinton dropped below 1 percent of the state population for the first time, and instead of getting split down the middle got kept together. That meant a pair-up of Republican Clyde Bradley and Democrat Polly Bukta, but Bradley retired.

When Bukta retired in 2010 she backed attorney Mary Wolfe, who was nominated with no primary (in contrast to the four-way open seat Senate primary that Bowman went through). Republicans had the best circumstances they could get: an open seat, a good cycle, and a credible candidate in former school board member David Rose. But Rose fell 424 votes short.

Since we're in The District Draws Itself range (city of Clinton population=88% of ideal district size) there's little change in Wolfe's party margin. Continued population loss in the city means adding Low Moor (so small on the map scale that I had to read the legislation to see if it was in or out) and three small towns and townships on the Clinton-Jackson line: Charlotte, Goose Lake and Andover.

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District of the Day: Senate District 48, House Districts 95 and 96

District of the Day: Senate District 48, House Districts 95 and 96



Senate District 48

Registration: D 11553, R 11552, N 15559, total 38706, D + 1
No Incumbent

House District 95

Registration: D 6453, R 5485, N 7317, total 19287, D + 968
Open seat: incumbent Nate Willems, D-Lisbon running for Senate

New House 95 bears so little resemblance to the House 29 where Nate Willems won two terms that you can't even really call it the same district. The old district was a half Linn, half Johnson seat. This seat is all in Linn, and the only overlap is the Mt.Vernon-Lisbon metro area and Springville just to the north. It adds most of the rest of north and east rural Linn County -- basically, Palo, everything north of Robins, and the whole eastern border. Most of that was Kraig Paulsen's or Nick Wagner's. That makes up 90% or a district; the southeast corner of Buchanan (Rowley and four townships) gets thrown in to balance the Census count.

The Mt. Vernon-Lisbon area has been home base for several legislators in a row: Dave Osterberg, one-term Republican Lynn Schulte, and Ro Foege. Foege announced his retirement just before the 2008 filing deadline, and Willems won handily in 2008 and by a surprisingly narrow 53-47 in 2010. (Still, that's not bad in a GOP wave year; Foege lost essentially the same turf to Schulte in 1994, coming back to win in `96).

Since Willems has to run on mostly new turf anyway, he may as well try for the move up. The other half of the Senate district includes Anamosa, where he grew up. So this district is good for him even though it's the very definition of a swing seat, with a Democratic registration edge as of Map Day of ONE voter. And that was before the Loebsacks started packing. Luckily for Democrats, The Senate seat is  even-numbered so it votes on the higher turnout presidential cycle. As for the House seat, Mt. Vernon has long had in influence in Linn County beyond its size.

House District 96

Registration: D 5100, R 6067, N 8242, total 19419, R+ 967
No incumbent Lee Hein, R-Monticello (?)

UPDATE Later that same evening: An alert reader notes this post:

Rep. Lee Hein (R-Monticello) has announced he intends to run for re-election in House District 96.

After redistricting, district 96 is comprised of all of Delaware County and portions of Jones County.

Hein is the third generation to work on his family farm operation, growing corn and soybeans along with raising hogs and cattle. He has been very active in the Iowa Farm Bureau, the Iowa Farm Business Association, and the Jones County Pork Producers and Cattlemen’s Association...

In fairness, this is kind of a My District Just Not My House thing. No word in the post about where Hein will be sleeping at night while he "work(s) on his family farm operation" which is just east of the district line. Hein was paired up with fluke winner Brian Moore (R-Zwingle) in Jackson County based House 58.

In the 2001 map, Jones County was in one House district and Delaware County was split. This decade it's the other way around, as Delaware stays whole and Jones is split. Most of the land in Jones goes east to House 58, but most of the people, in population centers Anamosa and Monticello, are in this district. As a whole, Jones is a little bigger than Delaware, so this is a more even split, something like 55-45 Delaware rather than 60-40 Jones.  If it comes to an open seat primary, those kinds of friends and neighbors factors make a difference.

Freshman Republican Lee Hein lives just east of the lines in rural Monticello and is paired with fellow Republican Brian Moore. But Hein, who beat Democrat Ray Zirkelbach in 2010, is a family farmer and not mobile. The more likely GOP carpetbagger is Steve Lukan of New Vienna...



...who isn't paired but got a strongly Democratic district. He's had most of Delaware County, including population center Manchester, for his whole decade in office.

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Michele Bachmann Turner Overdrive

Michele Bachmann Turner Overdrive: A Rally Music Fail

Michele Bachman's John Wayne (Gacy?) slip-up is probably a staffer-level oops. True, someone who makes such a point of bragging about Iowa origins should know the difference between Winterset and Waterloo. Even I know John Wayne's correct birthplace and I'm a cheesehead immigrant. But its easy enough to read the script wrong and misspeak.

What's more interesting to me, because rally music is always interesting to me, is the wrath of the Wilbury. Seems that Tom Petty is grouchy about Bachmann's use of "American Girl."

The song was a staple at Hillary Clinton events, usually faded before the unintentionally prescient line: "God it's so painful when something that's so close is still so far out of reach." But there's no record of Petty and his people objecting to that.

There IS record of Petty objecting to W using "I Won't Back Down" in 2000, but not to its subsequent use by... well, as you remember from caucus season 2007, every Democrat ever.

The point here isn't objecting to the use of the song quietly through a cease and desist letter. The point is Petty using his still-viable public profile to object to candidates he dislikes. See the collected Barracuda related complaints of the Wilson sisters circa September 2008.

Speaking of American girls, Jennifer Lawless writes: "If shattering the glass ceiling means supporting Michele Bachmann's presidential bid and the candidacy of a woman who is dramatically out of step with mainstream America, then I'd prefer to keep the ceiling intact. We can't afford to make that kind of history."

Bachman (ONE n) Turner Overdrive was unavailable for comment as they are Canadian. None of this is to be confused with Kathleen Turner Overdrive.

Magic Mountain Time in Davenport

Magic Mountain Time in Davenport

The Prez stops for lunch in Davenport; here's the origins of that story three years back.

Uncommitted Dems: 2012 and 1996

Uncommitted Dems: 2012 and 1996

As Air Force One approaches the Quad Cities, the DI offers a banner LOCALS TO OPPOSE OBAMA headline. It's a lot of picas, but not necessarily a lot of people; the photo shows two and the story quotes a third, but there's not a body count.

The local leader, history prof and 80s era county Dems chair Jeff Cox, was also in on an uncommitted effort in 1996 against the last Democratic incumbent to seek re-election, Bill Clinton. Jeff's a good guy and one of the first people I met when I hit town 21 years ago. His biggest bone of contention in that 1996 effort was how the results got hushed up till after the newspaper deadlines and flushed down the memory hole. (The buzz within the party establishment was that Clinton wanted a unanimous result.)

The state party has established real-time result reporting since then; precinct chairs report to Des Moines and not to the locals. So it's not likely that a mildly embarrassing outcome can be hidden again. But if you're ready to say I'm In, the best thing to do is caucus for The Prez rather than meddling in the GOP caucuses as Ed Fallon suggests.

And to set the historic record straight, here's the Official (TM) Johnson County result: Clinton 254 county convention delegates (98.1%), Uncommitted 3 delegates (1.1%), Ralph Nader 2 delegates (0.8%).

As for 2012, here's the Official (TM) Iowa Democratic Party response:

"We welcome participation in the Iowa Democratic Caucus and look forward to a campaign that addresses the issues important to all Americans, including access to health care and ending the war in Afghanistan.

"Over the past two years President Obama has championed reform that expands health care access to millions of Americans, while working with our nation's military leaders to bring a responsible end to combat operations in Iraq and welcome home 100,000 American troops from that nation.

"Additionally, President Obama has stood by his commitment to reduce troop levels in Afghanistan beginning next month. He will continue to consult with his advisors and military leaders to end our involvement in Afghanistan while eliminating safe havens from which al Qaeda and its affiliates could plan attacks against America or our allies. That goal is within reach and we are on track to transition combat responsibilities to the Afghan Security forces."

Another reason to stay in the Democratic caucuses is more local: if there's a special election for a county office, the delegates elected on caucus night are the ones who choose the party nominees. Especially relevant here in Johnson County.

One more afterthought: When Iowa Democrats have a president running for re-election, we vote at our caucuses. When Republicans have a president running for re-election, they don't. Would have been interesting to see how Pat Buchanan would have done against HW in 1992.

District of the Day: Senate District 47, House Districts 93 and 94

District of the Day: Senate District 47, House Districts 93 and 94

Is President Obama planning his schedule around the Deeth Blog? It can't be a mere coincidence that he visits Bettendorf the same day that District Of The Day does.

Senate District 47

Registration: D 12535, R 14415, N 16881, total 43865, R+ 1880
Incumbent: Roby Smith, R-Davenport

In Bettendorf and east Davenport, the Republican primary has been the big deal, as two consecutive incumbents have been knocked off in this district. In 2006, longtime moderate Maggie Tinsman lost to newcomer Dave Hartsuch, who then BARELY won the general over Phyllis Thede. Hartsuch quickly established himself as the Senate's leading hard-right crazy, and lost a landslide to Bruce Braley in the 2008 congressional race. (He was pointedly excluded from John McCain's October `08 visit to the QC.)

In 2010 it was Hartsuch who lost his primary, thus giving him the David Levy No-prize as the only Republican incumbent who sought re-election and failed, as no GOP incumbents lost in the general. (Democrats did, however, pick up one OPEN House seat, Dan Muhlbauer in Carroll.)

The winner was Roby Smith, who had lost a 2006 House race one district to the west. The primary with Hartsuch was more a matter of emphasis than actual policy differences; Hartsuch was about social issues especially Teh Gay while Smith was about Business.

Democrats were optimistic enough that they, too, had a primary. Phyllis Thede's husband David was favored, but lost a bit of an upset to Richard Clewell. In retrospect, Democratic hopes to win this seat probably vanished when Hartsuch lost the primary, as Smith handily won the general with 59%.

The lines change little. Bettendorf (along with the enclaved cities of Riverdale and Panorama Park) remains whole and remains the anchor. In Davenport, the lines remain Brady (Highway 61) for the lost part. Pleasant Valley Township is added to the east of Bettendorf. The district gains about 800 Republicans, which could be useful for the party if Smith gets primaried from the right...

House District 93

Registration: D 6963, R 6440, N 8179, total 21604, D + 523
Incumbent: Phyllis Thede, D-Davenport

David Thede's Senate primary loss last year precluded the chance that Iowa would see its first husband and wife legislative team since the Republican Hesters (Senator Jack and Representative Joan) left office in 1994. As noted, Phyllis had run for the Senate seat in 2006, falling just 436 votes short of Hartsuch. In 2008 she set her sights on the House and finished off another two-candidate family, the Van Fossens. Jim, the dad, had lost to Elesha Gayman in 2006. Phyllis beat beat Jamie Van Fossen, the son, 56-44.

Republicans made a serious comeback effort in 2010 with former Davenport city council member Carla Batchelor, but Thede held on by 233 votes. Given that margin, the line changes are significant, as Thede loses more than half of what had been an 1145 Democratic registration edge. Thede's district shifts east, losing part of downtown Davenport and everything north of 53rd Street, and picking up a bigger piece of west Bettendorf.

House District 94

Registration: D 5572, R 7975, N 8702, total 22261, R+ 2403
Incumbent: Linda Miller, R-Bettendorf

The Republican primary doesn't always settle things in Bettendorf. After Linda Miller knocked off moderate Joe Hutter in the same 2006 primary where Hartsuch teabagged Tinsman, Hutter continued his re-election bid as an independent. Democrats didn't have a horse in that race, which Miller won easily. She went unopposed in 2008 and 2010.

This is still basically the Bettendorf district, though a slightly bigger piece gets carved out; at 33,217 population, Bettendorf is just a little too big for The District Draws Itself. Miller picks up the northwest part of Davenport from Thede, and Pleasant Valley Township east of the city limits. This gives her a slightly stronger GOP registration edge.

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Linux Monday: How The Linux Netbook Died

Linux Monday: How The Linux Netbook Died

Here's a Linux Monday read that might, or should, be of interest to the casual geek or anyone with an interest in antitrust law: Think back about four years when netbooks were the new hot thing? Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols & Paula Rooney pick up the story:

When netbooks first came along, they almost all ran Linux. Microsoft, which was then stuck with the resource pig known as Windows Vista, simply couldn’t compete. So, reluctantly, Microsoft gave Windows XP Home a new lease on life and sold it below cost to OEMs to kill the Linux desktop on netbooks.

They were successful. Mind you, the last thing Microsoft wanted was for people to keep using XP. They wanted, oh how they wanted, users to turn to Vista. But, they also didn’t want to turn over the low-end to Linux. So, instead they dumped XP Home to OEMs at below cost to chase Linux off netboooks. It worked.

As for Intel, even though their Atom processors powered the netbooks into popularity, they were never crazy about it. After all, every Atom-powered netbook sold was one less Pentium Dual Core laptop that could have been sold at a higher price and higher margin.

So, if you ever wondered why it is you can’t find a $200 Linux-powered netbook from a brand name OEM these days, now you know. It really was Microsoft with an Intel chip in the CFO’s office.

But they didn't kill it entirely dead:

Asus, one of the leading manufacturers of netbooks, has announced that three Eee PCs will ship with Ubuntu Linux. Price-wise, they should range from around $220 for the Eee PC 1001PXD, up to $320 for the 1015PX.

Beyond the fact that Canonical has finally scored a big deal with a sizable OEM, the one thing that stands out is the old version of Ubuntu.

From there we get more Linux geeky with the whole Unity vs. GNOME fight that's rending Planet Ubuntu asunder. Most of you don't want that, so here's some stuff that's useful no matter what your platform: a long list of hard drive myths and, from Daily Kos of all places, advide on How To Fix That Crap.

District of the Day: Senate District 46, House Districts 91 and 92

District of the Day: Senate District 46, House Districts 91 and 92

Senate District 46

Registration: D 12145, R 11684, N 16335, total 40178, D + 461
Incumbents: Shawn Hamerlinck, R-Davenport and Jim Hahn, R-Muscatine

Our last week of District Of The Day begins with our last two-incumbent seat. A different pair of House districts gets combined, pairing up two Republican senators from two different counties. This new combined seat is exactly half and half: one House seat that's all Muscatine, one that's all Scott. (Specifics under each.) Making matters worse, it's a swing district with a very slight Democratic tilt, and both of the House districts have been won by Democrats in recent years.

Jim Hahn of Muscatine went to the House in 1990. He moved over to the Senate in 2004 when long-timer Dick Drake retired. That district went north into Jeff Kaufmann's Cedar County based House district. Hahn loses all of Cedar County, and the northern tier of Muscatine, and a tiny piece of Johnson that he won't miss much.

What he gets instead is a chunk of western Scott County and Shawn Hamerlinck. The Davenport city council member knocked off Democrat Frank Wood in 2008 by just 384 votes. That district went north into Republican Steve Olson's House district that was about half rural-suburban north and east Scott County and half rural-suburban south and west Clinton County.

Hamerlinck had kept a relatively low profile until a couple weeks back, when he told a delegation of students testifying about education funding to "go home." Most bets are that Hahn, who'll be 76 be Election Day 2012, calls it quits. Will Hamerlinck also "go home" after 2012?

House District 91

Registration: D 6054, R 6166, N 7394, total 19620, R+ 112
Incumbent: Mark Lofgren, R-Muscatine.

When Hahn went to the Senate in 2004, Republican Barry Brauns tried a comeback after a two-year hiatus. But Nathan Reichert, who had run an unexpectedly close race in a 1995 special election for county auditor, won a big upset to become the first Democrat to take the Muscatine district in recent memory. He stayed atop the target list but beat the incumbent sheriff in 2006 and a city council member in 2008, only to sink beneath the wave in 2010. (Reichert may be interested in a comeback, either here or in the Senate race.)

Mark Lofgren, a first time candidate in 2010, finally took this seat back for the GOP, winning by 1500 votes. This is another District Draws Itself, as the city of Muscatine is 75% of ideal district size. Lofren also keeps suburban Bloomington Township (a GOP stronghold) and the same three townships in eastern Muscatine County including Stockton. He sheds one rural township to the west and adds the Fruitland area. This adds a little population and makes a swing seat even closer.

House District 92

Registration: D 6091, R 5518, N 8941, total 20558, D + 573
Incumbent: Ross Paustian, R-Walcott

No one really thought Elesha Gayman to have a chance in 2006, when the netroots activist shocked Jim (The Elder) Van Fossen. Gayman set a record, since broken by Anesa Kajtazovic, as the youngest woman elected to the legislature.

Gayman had a target on her back from day one in this rural-urban split district in northwest Davenport and western Scott County. Republicans recruited Farm Bureau leader Ross Paustian. But Gayman, who was briefly reported as a loser on Election Night 2008 until the absentees came in, held Paustian to 47% in the Obama wave.

Gayman's retirement - an odd term to use for a 32 year old - days before the 2010 filing deadline was just as surprising as her election. Democrat Sheri Carnahan made a serious effort, but Paustian had never stopped running after 2008 and won with 57%. He's kept a relatively low profile his first session.

The district keeps almost the same lean, a very slight D tilt, on paper. That should help Frank Wood, who joins Bill Heckroth and Rich Olive as former Democratic Senators attempting comebacks on the House side. (Anyone checked in with Staci Appel?) Wood, who announced June 15, narrowly (480 votes) knocked off Republican incumbent Bryan Sievers in 2004 despite the GOP trend, before falling to Hamerlinck in 2008 despite the Democratic trend. Wood ran county-wide in 2010, losing a supervisor race but running slightly ahead of the other two Democrats in a vote-for-three swept by the GOP.

As for the lines, the city portion shifts north (losing all its riverfront) and east to roughly Highway 61. Out in the county Paustian keeps very similar lines, and most of the county west of Davenport. He loses Buffalo and gains the city of Donahue, and keeps Eldridge, Long Grove, Walcott and Blue Grass.

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District of the Day: Senate District 45, House Districts 89 and 90

District of the Day: Senate District 45, House Districts 89 and 90

Senate District 45

Registration: D 15353, R 7583, N 16455, total 39421, D + 7770
Incumbent: Joe Seng, D-Davenport

Last decade saw a major map rewrite in Scott County, and two legislators, Republican Dave Millage and Democrat Pat Deluhery, bailed to run unsuccessful statewide. This time, all the districts are basically recognizable. There's no open seats and no pair-ups.

After winning one term in the House as a post-primary replacement candidate, veterinarian Joe Seng (does the double honorific Senator Doctor Seng that he seems to prefer annoy anyone else?) won this seat easily in 2002. After going unopposed in 2006, he beat Some Dude Republican Mark Riley with 62% in 2010.

What was a vertical strip through the middle third of Davenport moves south and west and partway out of the city. The changes make this solidly Democratic district about 700 Democrats stronger.

House District 89

Registration: D 7327, R 4688, N 8576, total 20605, D+ 2639
Incumbent: Jim Lykam, D-Davenport

Lykam won one term in 1988, got knocked off in by Steve Grubbs in `90, then came back on friendlier turf in 2002, friendly enough that he drew a bye in 2010. (In 2006 he beat one Roby Smith, who we'll hear from next Tuesday). That turf, new in west central Davenport, stays just about as friendly this decade. He loses a couple precincts in the north, where the district used to go to the Davenport-Eldridge line, and shifts west to the Davenport city limits.

House District 90

Registration: D 8026, R 2895, N 7879, total 18816, D+ 5131
Incumbent: Cindy Winckler, D-Davenport

Winckler knocked off one-term Republican John Sunderbruch in 2000 and has been mostly solid since. Republicans made a relatively serious effort last cycle with city council member Ray Ambrose. (Trivia: Davenport was the last city in the state with a partisan city council. They voted to go non-partisan in 1995. The code section allowing partisan city councils remains on the books even though no one uses it.) Ambrose held Winckler to a relatively close 55%, with dismal turnout. That may be the max for the GOP on this turf, as Winckler's margins are usually closer to 70-30.

The district shifts south and west, taking in most of southwest Davenport in wards 1 and 3. Winckler also moves east along the riverfront by what looks like one precinct, which gives her almost all of Davenport's Illinois border. It expands outside the city limit to include the city of Buffalo, which gives the district a nice long skinny shape that redistricting consultant Jerry Mandering likes. The changes make the seat even more Democratic.

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