Friday Clip Show

It's as predictable as tearing the page off the calendar. Another month, another voter registration report from Matt Schultz, another Republican press release bragging about voter registration gains.

Which means A.J. Spiker is bragging about his own team's internal divisions. Ya think those dozen primary challenges to your own House incumbents had anything to do with it? And did Bob Vander Plaats ever endorse Branstad? Those lines of people at courthouses changing affiliation to protest ObamaCare are all in your imagination, mister chair...

What else I got here: Oh, yeah. My favorite story I've seen in ages:

The Supreme Court’s ruling to uphold ‘Obamacare’ changes the federal-state relationship in a way that might end up affecting issues such as the drinking age nationwide, legal experts say.

Haven't dug into all the details yet (and as you know I'm just a clerk, not a lawyer) but I look forward to studying this much more in the next few weeks. Stay tuned.

• A twist in the local option sales tax vote we were expecting early next year:

Iowa City staff (is) recommending that the City Council at this time not seek a continuance of the 1 percent local-option sales tax approved by voters in 2009 to pay for flood-related projects. The tax, which increases the sales tax from 6 percent to 7 percent for purchases in Iowa City, was approved for four years and has a sunset date of June 30, 2013.

If you recall this was a narrow win in Iowa City back in May 2009, a narrow loss in Coralville, a big loss in rural Johnson County and North Liberty, and a big winner in the small cities. And it's the small cities who stand to lose revenue, because under the law only entities making up 50%+ of the population can call the election... which means Iowa City alone decides.

•  Chris Rock gets in trouble again for telling the truth. Wasn't that a funny movie he made in 2003 about a black guy running for president?

• We still want that Nebraska electoral vote. What the article fails to mention: True, the Unicameral (don't get me started on that mess) didn't repeal the electoral vote by congressional district law. They took the easy way out. Since they had to redistrict anyway, they just gerrymandered a bit in Sarpy County to make NE-02 a little redder. That Omaha TV time still looks good in Council Bluffs, though.

• And just for fun: 100 great guitar riffs, 12 minutes, one take.

• Speaking of mixing rock and politics, Krist Novelselic is another guy who does that. You know him as The Other Guy from Nirvana who's 1) alive and 2) not in the Foo Fighters, but he made a nice appearance last night on Maddow discussing electoral reforms proportional representation and campaign finance reform.

Novoselic was in New York as keynote speaker at the CBGB festival and later in the evening bragged up a chance to meet another punk bass god, Glen Matlock (the OTHER Sex Pistols bass player, the one who could actually play).

God Bless You, Mother Peick

Linn County Democratic politics lost a legend on the 4th of July, when longtime party activist Doris Peick passed away at age 78.

"Mother" Peick was an old-school lunch-bucket Democrat. She worked many years at Rockwell-Collins in Cedar Rapids and got into politics through her union, IBEW. She went to the Democratic National Convention in 1980, and to the Iowa House in 1982, when it was still a bit unusual to see women getting elected.

Peick's legislative career was brief; she lost to current Cedar Rapids Mayor Ron Corbett in 1986.But defeat didn't slow Doris down and by the time I joined the 1992 campaign as a twentysomething rookie staffer, her legend had preceded her.

And I was scared to death.

Mere words cannot capture the force of nature that was Doris Peick. She was gruff and abrasive, but had a big heart and a bigger mind and dominated almost any room she was in. Doris would laugh loudly if you were funny and cuss you out if you were wrong, and feed you dinner while she was doing it. She always wanted to organize things her way, and her way was usually more work and always more effective. If -- no, WHEN -- she bossed you around, it was because she loved you and loved the Democratic Party and wanted you to work your best and your hardest. (If she ignored you, that's when you were in real trouble.)

I'd come out of Johnson County where the principle of the time was that it was really rude to ask for money. Doris didn't have time for that; the headquarters rent needed to be paid, even if it was two bucks at a time. It was physically impossible to get into a Linn County central committee meeting at the RWDSU union hall back then without getting past Doris guarding the door, making sure you were dutifully depositing your two dollars into the jar. At the end of the night they'd do a 50/50 drawing: half the proceeds to the winner, half to the party. It was Doris who taught me that if you win you ALWAYS donate your half back to the party.

Doris also taught me that, as small as staffers paychecks were, everyone else was doing it for free so you had to work the hardest. She knew the ins and outs of the pre-computerized days of get out the vote, the arcane details of "throwing a walking deck" and "pulling cards," and she knew everyone in her precinct.

A bygone era? Not really. The tools have changed but the principles are the same: identify your people and make damn sure they get their votes in.

Doris Peick is no doubt already organizing her precinct in heaven and arguing with her cohorts who got there first, like Pat Marshall and John Glackin and Phil Brammer. Prayers and best wishes to her husband Dick, her children, and to all those who loved her.

And that was an awful lot of us.

Happy Fourth with the Dems

The score for the Coralville parade: Democrats defeat temperature, 120 to 103. A great turnout considering we were short some of our usual dignitaries. (Dave Loebsack was in Newton, Tipton and Muscatine.)

But we had our usual crowd of local dignitaries from the courthouse and legislative delegation. Our very own "Democratic cheerleader," IDP chair Sue Dvorsky, was with us in Coralville, and hosted the traditional post-parade get together at her home. Senator Bob was with us then headed over to the new part of his district, Tipton.

A three-parade Coralville-Oxford-Hills medal of merit goes to John Stimmel, the Neuzils, the Harneys, the Sullivan/Faths, the Rettig/Butlers, and the Weipert/Fergusons; also the Stutsmans who covered Sharon Center then joined us for Oxford and Hills. (Did I miss anyone?) Mary Mascher, Dave Jacoby, Joe Bolkcom, Janet Lyness and Lonny Pulkrabek were also with us in various places and districts.

As for the Deeth/Steele/Cox/Poisel/Leeneys - yes, five last names in my immediate family - Jimiya and Elias joined us for two parades and Elias is an expert candy thrower. Koni also joined us on her old stomping grounds in Oxford. The boys were smart and stayed in (until it cooled off enough for sparklers).



A large Obama-specific presence; as for the other team, they had their loyalists on hand but no big GOP names sighted, and you had to look fairly close to see the word Romney anywhere. Their most visible person was Steve Sherman. The star in his logo made some folks in our crew wonder if he was running for sheriff rather than state rep.

More of my pics over at this Facebook album. Tom Jacobs was also shooting pictures and even got me in a few. He's been doing this for years, way before social media, and if you see a picture with me in it at a labor event in the last 20 years he probably took it. Tom's been updating and sharing those recently and we all appreciate it. Some other folks posted photos too. This is as good a time as any to remind folks to join the JCDems Facebook group.

Lauren Reece

Sad news: Former school board member Lauren Reece passed away yesterday after a long battle with breast cancer. She was only 52.

Lauren was elected in 1999 and 2002, stepping down in 2005. She chaired the board for a few years and was one of the leaders of the successful 2003 school bond vote that built Tate High School, North Central Junior High, and Van Allen Elementary.

Reece was also active in Democratic party politics and hosted one of my all-time favorite events: a 1999 tailgater for Bill Bradley at her home near Kinnick Stadium. She was well into the planning stages of a 2004 run for the Board of Supervisors when her health took a negative turn.

Services are tentatively scheduled for Thursday at Agudas Achim Synagogue. Condolences to Lauren's husband Michael Flaum, their children, and all of Lauren's family and friends.

Dems New Weight Loss Program

Johnson County Democrats have developed a new weight loss program: three parades in 102 degree heat!

The Johnson Co. Democrats are #99 in the Coralville 4th parade. Let's have at LEAST 99 people walking. More would be better! Line up is a 9:00 GEICO/McGregor parking lot. Parade begins at 10 and will be 2 miles long. We'll have water in the parade trailer. This parade is by far the biggest parade of the year with 122 entries. It's also one of the most fun.

Oxford 4th of July Parade, Wednesday,
2:30 PM line-­‐up at Lions/Ball Park
3 PM Parade

Hills Parade Wednesday, July 4th
3:30 PM Registration
@ St. Joseph’s parking lot
5:30 PM Parade

Three parades on the Fourth is slacking for me; I made it to four the year I was a candidate. (And there's a persistent rumor I used to do parades in a donkey costume, I will neither confirm or deny.) Can't decide which candidate's shirt to wear? Bring `em all and change between parades.

Democrats Recruit House District 97 Candidate

Iowa House Democrats have just filled one of their blanks on the ballot:

Ted Whisler of LeClaire was nominated during a special convention last week to run for State Representative in District 97, which includes rural Clinton County and part of Scott County.

“My top priority will be to bring good paying jobs to our community and grow the middle class again,” said Whisler, a Democrat. “The state must help small businesses, boost Iowa’s ag economy and encourage more advanced manufacturing. If we can put politics aside and work together, I know we can move our state forward for the betterment of all Iowans.”

Currently an owner of a small vineyard, Whisler worked for ALCOA for 30 years and is a member of the United Steel Workers, Local 105. He is a strong supporter of Iowa agriculture and has helped neighboring farmers and friends. He is also a volunteer for Habitat for Humanity.

“It’s also essential that we improve education from preschool to higher education and keep it affordable for all Iowa families. We also want to keep our educational standards high to entice industry to grow here, and prepare our children for these new opportunities,” added Whisler.

Ted Whisler was born and raised in a large Iowa family. His wife, Elizabeth, hails from Northwest Iowa and they have lived in rural Scott County for 23 years.

They have 4 children and 10 grandchildren. Whisler said other priorities in the Iowa House include new opportunities for small businesses, fairness for hardworking employees, and better protection of our natural resources.

Nominated by convention candidates are often Some Dudes, and just getting a late start puts one at a disadvantage. But four Iowa House freshmen, two of each party, were nominated at conventions in 2010.

And House 97 could be a sleeper. Incumbent Steve Olson (R-DeWitt) had a relatively close 56-44 win in 2008, but went unopposed in 2010. This Clinton-Scott turf is likely to be hotly contested by both parties because of the overlapping open-seat state senate race between Democrat Rita Hart and Republican Andrew Naeve.

The turf has become more Democratic: As of March registration was R +208, which makes this a swing seat. (A full District Of The Day reboot is planned following the August 17 filing deadline; any of you readers know of any other late starters?)

In Clinton County, Olson keeps Camanche, DeWitt and everything west. On the north, Lost Nation stays in the district and Delmar is added. The changes are marginal in Scott as Olson swaps a couple Bettendorf-bordering townships. He keeps Le Claire, Princeton, and most of the Wapsi River border; Donahue and Long Grove are carved out and sent south to Ross Paustian's district.

Two Check Terry's Health Care

Some things don't change. Two decades on and Terry Branstad is still bashing unionized public employees.

Branstad made a big show at today's press conference of loudly announcing that he was paying 20% of his healthcare costs, while "encouraging" other state employees to do the same. (If the boss tells you to do it, it's not mere "encouraging.)

Last we checked, Branstad was still drawing TWO state checks: his salary as governor AND his IPERS benefits from his first Terrace Hill tenure. So I think it's just a tad easier for Terry and Chris to cough up an extra $224 a month than it is for, say, your average social worker or prison guard.

Retiring Democratic Senator Gene Fraise elaborates:

I suppose it made some sense to the Governor when he made this outrageous request, especially considering his own $130,000 salary, $50,000 state pension, free housing and transportation, and a state-funded personal chef.

But the Governor is ignoring the sacrifices that correctional officers, social workers, home health care and child care providers, mental health workers, and many other state workers have made during the national recession. Unlike the Governor, these state workers have experienced furloughs, layoffs, pay freezes, and doing more work for no additional pay.

(For the record: I'm a public employee and union member, and I pay in for my family's health care.)

Branstad's move invites the divisiveness that's plagued Wisconsin for the past year and a half. My parents have voted seven extra times in the past 18 months. You think anyone in Iowa would finish their term if we had recall?

Don't Call Me Scarface

Out of all the primary challengers to Iowa House incumbent Republicans, I had Jake Highfill labeled as one of the least serious. True, Erik Helland had gotten a lot of negative PR, but Highfill seemed Some Dude enough that I expected Helland to prevail.

Well, of course, that's what you get for counting on a Democrat to handicap a GOP primary, and Highfill was the only primary challenger to knock off an incumbent. But how many Urbandale Republicans would like that vote back? Patch:

A lawsuit filed against Iowa House District 39 Republican nominee Jake Highfill claims that he brought a shotgun to a college party, argued with his roommate during the event and smashed a glass bottle across the man's face, permanently disfiguring him...

Hard for a 22 year old candidate to pass this off as a "youthful indiscretion"...



This seat had a 3000 voter Republican registration edge as of March, which is strong, but not enough to make it a slam dunk for a flawed candidate. It's also unusual for a law student to have the maturity edge, but that's what Grimes Democrat Kelsey Clark has. Move this race up the charts a few notches.

Other House campaign news:

Here in Johnson County, Republican Steve Sherman is taking a blunt approach in his House 77 bid; he's got an uphill battle against Democrat Sally Stutsman in this open seat.

Democrat Bob Kressig, who always seems to prevail on swing turf, is getting to work in House District 59.

Thursday Clip Show

Don't blame the byline for the headline... but couldn't my friends at the Register have come up with a better word to describe Democratic National Committee chair Debbie Wasserman-Schultz than... "cheerleader"? Not because of the implied sexism, but because she can't possibly live up to the gold standard of yelling set by one of her recent predecessors.



What else I got here...

Says here that Joe Biden, fresh from his Iowa visit, will be with the President in the oval office awaiting the Supreme Court's health care ruling. Which clearly means the ruling will be a big deal.

They're actually polling on which candidate voters would trust more against an alien invasion. That's space aliens, the kind Steve King worries about. Obama wins two to one, but even Mitt would do a better job than Jack Nicholson:



Priceless crosstab: "If angry aliens did attack Earth, 21% would call the Hulk in to deal with it, 12% would call Batman, and 8% would call Spider-Man." As a space alien himself, Superman must have been deemed ineligible.

And on the technology front: "Orbitz Worldwide Inc. has found that people who use Apple Inc.'s Mac computers spend as much as 30% more a night on hotels, so the online travel agency is starting to show them different, and sometimes costlier, travel options than Windows visitors see." Priceless comment: "Linux users get access to a special half-price deal -- but you have to make your own bed. They supply the hammer."

Mitt Romney and the Streisand Effect

Foolishness knows no Party. Mitt Romney made a post-modern mistake this week that's named for a liberal Hollywood icon.

The Washington Post wrote a story last week about Romney's old firm Bain Capital and its track record of investing in firms that specialized in outsourcing American jobs. The article could have been defused by bit by an on the record rebuttal.

But not only did the Romney campaign refused to cooperate, after the story was published they demanded a retraction, which the paper rightly refused.

Sort of makes you want to read it now, doesn't it?

In the Internet era, this is what we call the Streisand effect: "an attempt to hide or remove a piece of information has the unintended consequence of publicizing the information more widely." The effect is, indeed, named for the one whose voice is like buttah.

In 2003, the California Coastal Records Project published 12,000 photos of the coastline as part of an erosion study. Rather than accept a relatively equal and anonymous place in an obscure website, Barbra Streidand got all verklemmpt and sued the nosy environmentalists for $50 million for "invading her privacy.".

The result?

"Before Streisand filed her lawsuit, 'Image 3850' had been downloaded from Adelman's website only six times; two of those downloads were by Streisand's attorneys. As a result of the case, public knowledge of the picture increased substantially; more than 420,000 people visited the site over the following month."

The default mindset on the Internet is "information ought to be free," which is 1) why record stores went out of business and 2) why nine years after the fact I still feel the need to post the picture of Barbra Streisand's house.

Hollywood celebrity leads to some detachment from reality, so it's not shocking that someone like Streisand may not have foreseen the outcome. But politics at the major league level has no room for such detachment. Romney's effort to kill the story is an interesting character insight into the mindset of a CEO who's used to controlling every situation, something presidents don't get to do.

Attention Liberal Billionaire Readers

OK, so I probably don't draw that many readers with ten figures of net worth. And that level of income tends to skew to the right, though there are notable "class traitor" exceptions.
But on the off chance that a Democratic tycoon is reading me: please write some SuperPAC checks, OK?

Reports last week show that liberal donors are lagging far behind conservatives in the free for all of campaign finance since the to say the least controversial Citizens United Supreme Court ruling. "Still largely missing are the liberal philanthropists and executives who showered $396 million in unrestricted contributions on 527s in the 2004 elections."

"This time around," writes Alec McGillis at the New Republic:

rather than simply rally their friends and colleagues around an inspiring cause, these donors are also being asked to cut massive checks. And because many of them share Obama’s disdain for the excesses of a broken campaign finance system, the exercise has prompted considerable squeamishness. One bundler who has raised more than $800,000 told me there was “an aversion to the super PACs, to the whole idea of them” in the bundler’s circle. “It’s left a really bad taste in people’s mouths.” “I think it’s awful,” says another bundler who has raised more than $600,000 for the campaign this year. “There’s too much money being spent on these elections to begin with. Why would anyone want to give $5 million to a super PAC to elect a president? It’s incomprehensible. There are a lot of other things you can give your money to.” Such as? Hospitals and investigative journalism, offered the bundler.

My team has an admirable tendency to play by the rules as they should be, not by the rules as they are. This unfortunate commitment to principle, unfortunately, is unilateral disarmament in a post-Citizens United world that defines money as free speech. (We all have free speech, but some of us are louder.) And the Supremes doubled down on that thinking in Monday's ruling on Montana campaign finance limits, a ruling that should ripple into Iowa soon.

UPDATE: As if on cue, Warren Buffett: "I will not be doing super PACs of any sort. I think allowing unlimited contributions to campaigns is a terrible idea and an important and unfortunate step toward a plutocracy.”


The other side has no such qualms about letting principle get in the way of fundraising. Indeed, it's one of the few areas where Mitt Romney is willing to wear his faith on his sleeve. Politically incorrect to note that Mormons are giving to Romney? People give to people like themselves, especially when that person is a barrier breaker. I remember stories about Michael Dukakis setting fundraising records with the Greek-American community. (Tangent: why is it that the evangelical champions of the last two cycles, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum, consistently lagged in fundraising even when they were winning at the polls?)

Democrats have advantages in ground game and in small dollar donors, true. And if you took a poll on campaign finance reform, you'd see an overwhelming majority for tighter restrictions. But the issue is at this point an insider issue, not a vote changing issue. And Average Voter would likely define "reform" as "get rid of the damn commercials," which would be an actual constitutional problem, not a made up one like Citizens United.

So for now, the game has to be played by the rules in place, bad as they are. Billionaire readers, are you persuaded yet? You can write your checks payable to my new Super PAC, the Joint Organization Helping National Democrats Emerge Elected Totally Honestly. That's a lot to write on the Pay To The Order Of line, so be sure to use our acronym and mail it to this address. Yes, of course I know Colbert did it firster and funnier, but I'm counting on my much smaller audience to deliver proportionate results. I thank you and the President thanks you.

Spiker strikes out on Iowa Press

Just watched the two state party chairs on "Iowa Press" and while I was of course rooting for my friend Sue Dvorsky, I've been listening to her long enough to know what to expect. Mostly, I was curious to see how new Republican chair A.J. Spiker fared.

I can see where he hasn't inspired confidence in the GOP donor class, as he ran out of ways to not say "I endorse Mitt Romney" or even imply support of the certain nominee until after the third clause of a long sentence.

But that's the other teams problem. I was cheering for Spiker to come up with some good answers for the assorted issues Iowa Republicans had with their caucuses and conventions. As Dvorsky noted, Iowa Democrats and Republicans are in the same boat when it comes to efforts to keep our first in the nation status.

Spiker seemed to fixate on one relatively small aspect of the problem: the fact that hei predecessor Matt Strawn "declared a winner" on caucus night, when Mitt Romney seemed to have an eight vote lead. I can understand why Spiker focused on that; it's probably what he heard from his own party activists during the GOP's review process. If I were a Rick Santorum Republican (the if's don't get any bigger than that) I'd be steamed that Strawn called Romney  a winner in the wee hours of January 4, but did not use equivalent language two weeks later when the certified results showed Santorum 34 votes ahead. Indeed, it was at that point that Strawn's support melted away, which is why Spiker is chair today.

But from the perspective of the national press, the phrase "I declare" is 1) more suited for the South Carolina primary and best done in a Scarlett O'Hara accent and 2) insignificant. If the January 4 1 AM number showed Abe Lincoln one vote ahead of Teddy Roosevelt (dead presidents are safe examples), the headlines would blare LINCOLN WINS IOWA.

No, the larger problem is that the order itself changed. And it's compounded by the fact that a third candidate won the delegates and, as Dvorsky reminded us, a fourth candidate had won the Ames Straw Poll.

Another fixation the locals have is the battle over whether state central committee members should be neutral in primaries. The national media doesn't care about that either. In fact, I think they kind of expect and like it; "State Central Committee Member Endorses Eisenhower" can fill a news hole on a slow day. And remember: no national media = no candidates coming to Iowa.

Thursday Clips

Getting back in the hang of this writing thing after my self-imposed exile, and I remember that you're supposed to plug the event BEFORE it happens. Oh well. Joe Bolkcom had a nice fundraiser last night and I'm sure he'd still take your $ for the Senate Democrats. The guest speaker was the newest Democratic senator, Linn County's Liz Mathis. Joe's colleage Bob Dvorsky was on hand, along with Chairwoman Dvorsky; they cut out early to celebrate Sue's birthday. Other politicos on hand: Mary Mascher, Janelle Rettig, and Travis Weipert.

Jon Ward has finally figured out what the Paulistinians will do with their delegates: mess with the vice presidential nomination. Old timers will remember how the `72 Democratic vice presidential vote was a disaster - even BEFORE the Eagleton nod itself blew up - as an interminable roll call pushed an excellent McGovern speech into, in the immortal phrase, "prime time in Guam." Does Romney suffer the same fate?

Getting toward the time of year when I start thinking about third parties.  The Libertarians have already picked Gary Johnson, the ex-GOP ex-governor of New Mexico, and with the Paulistinians still out in force, he could cause headaches for Mitt.

The Greens, for their part, are making a classic third party mistake: rejecting a marketable name for a loyal but unknown party activist. Their convention isn't till mid-July but two time gubernatorial asterisk Jill Stein has been beating Rosanne Barr - yes, the ex Mrs. Tom Arnold to us Iowans - in primaries.

(And the third parties may have a legit beef with the late major party national conventions; both Obama and Romney will be formally nominated AFTER the Iowa filing deadline...)

One state that won't see many if any third parties below the presidential level is California, which enacted a constitutionally dubious "top two" primary that was rolled out for the first time this year. The idea, one of AHnold's brainstorms, was to create "more competitive" races. (Their clean redistricting initiative will do more for that.) The end result is congressional and legislative ballots with zero third party candidates, And in one key district that was considered winnable for Democrats, voters will choose in the fall between... two Republicans. A crowded Democratic field splintered the vote, and the two Republicans came out on top.

And the must read, wish I'd written it story of the day is this Atlantic piece. Chris Christie loves Springsteen... but it ain't mutual.

The Risk of Letting Someone Else Do It

I absorbed the side by side party conventions Saturday 140 characters at a time, following my Twitter feed on the way back from our family vacation. The occasional GOP blogger tried to dis the Dem's light attendance, in they same way they brag about how divisive primaries have cause Republican voter registration gains.
 
But of course the big story was Republican divisiveness and disarray. I'm not convinced that who gets the privilege of going to a national convention matters much, except to the people who want to go. And unenforcable platforms matter to almost no one except the platform committee.

Dysfunction, however, is important in the big picture of who's going to win a close election. The Paul supporters are to be commended for knowing the rules and for sticking around on caucus night and at the endless follow-up meetings. But convention strategy and platform writing are very different skills than winning elections (as evidenced in Paul's failure to win a single state). The new regime at RPI seems weak on those skills.

Oh, the work will get done. Someone will step in and do it. My own local party had a cycle where an inept platform-committee type took over and spent endless energy on structure and minutia. The elected officials had to  bail him out to make sure we had the money to open an office.

When someone else takes over, you lose control. And that's the risk A.J. Spiker and company run. It's already becoming clear that the traditional Iowa Republican movers and shakers are unwilling or reluctant to donate to the Spiker-led party. There's already talk, both in Iowa and in similarly dysfunctional Nevada, that outside interest groups and/or the Romey campaign will work around the formal party structure.

The problem with relying on outsiders to do the work is that you're hostage to their agenda. I remember interviewing a Missouri Democrat who, three years later, was still mad at the John Kerry campaign for pulling the plug on his state three weeks before election day. He believed the lack of a national campaign cost Democrats the governor's race.

Resources aren't infinite, even in the post Citizens United universe. Money will be in effect unlimited, sure. But time and space and people are limited.Now it's unlikely that Iowa , even as small as we are, will fall off the radar this cycle. But there are a lot of ways to get the electoral math to add up to 270, and if one of the other routes looks more promising to Romney in mid-October, the Iowa Republicans of 2012 could be in the same boat as the Missouri Dems of 2004.

Post-Primary Linkfest

Sifting through the local coverage of assorted legislative primaries we find:

Ed Tibbetts sums up the QC area results and notes that in the two incumbent Senate 46 GOP primary, Shawn Hamerlinck's Scott County margin was about 500 votes more than Jim Hahn's lead in Muscatine. Todd Dorman looks at the big picture, and The Iowa Republican has a winners and losers list (I'm a sucker for that format)

Maison Bleam carried two counties in his unsuccessful GOP challenge to freshman Tom Shaw in House 10.

Douglas Burns notes that Carroll County supervisor overwhelmingly lost his home county to Carroll Mayor Adam Schweers in the Senate 6 GOP primary, but carried the rest of teh counties for the win. The Council Bluffs Nonpariel (my favorite Iowa newspaper name) also looks at that race along with House 22, where Republican Greg Forristall held off a challenge from Clint Fichter.

Two righty losers talking about future bids already: Jeff Mullen in Senate 22 and Matthew Ung in House 6.

Tea partyish Jane Jech swept the district in her upset (maybe?) win over Larry McKibben in Senate 36.

In Senate 42, the one Democrat NOT from Lee County, carried the bump on the bottom of the state and his own Henry County for a solid win in a three way race.

Quotes from both Dems in Clinton-based Senate 49, where Rita Hart beat Dorothy O'Brien in a close contest.


A friends and neighbors type split in House District 2: "The Iowa House District 2 Republican Primary came down to Clay County voters for candidates Megan Hess and Josh Davenport Tuesday evening. Hess earned 743 of her 1,139 votes in her home county to secure nearly 54 percent of the vote, while 515 of Davenport's 979 votes came from Clay County voters."

A twist in House 16 in Council Bluffs:  "In (the Democrat's) one primary race, Heidi Guggisberg-Coners defeated Ron Pierce for the new House District 16. Ironically, though, she dropped out shortly before the election offering her support to Pierce. Guggisberg-Coners received 168 votes to Pierce’s 159 votes." Presumably Dems will have a party convention to formally choose an opponent for GOP freshman Mary Ann Hanusa.

Friends and neighbors again in House 24: 

Facing down the political machine of one’s own party usually isn’t the way to start one’s political career, and it rarely goes well for the newcomer. But Clarinda native Jane C. Jensen found herself leading the race in House District 24 with results reported from three of the four counties represented.

 But, Rep. Cecil Dolecheck of Mount Ayr, endorsed by Iowa GOP heavy hitters and the benefactor of mailers from the Republican Party of Iowa late in the race, won overwhelming support in his home county — Ringgold County — and pulled away with a 59- to 41-percent victory.

Patch has a non-paywalled look at the lone incumbent loss, where Jake Highfill knocked off Erik Helland in House 39.

Nathan Wrage credits shoe leather for his upset win over Christina Blackcloud-Garcia in the House 72 Democratic race.

Via Facebook, David Johnson rebuts my take on his House 73 loss:

Mr. Schwab was a very strong primary candidate and did a fantastic job of getting out the JC vote, but I think in November, those that put him up to this race will understand why I was warning them. Cedar County is a different animal than Johnson County altogether. 60% of the district is Cedar County, and it's critical that Mr. Schwab receives at least 46% of it in the general election. My fear is that he can't do it. I think his poor returns in Cedar and in Muscatine does not bode well. Remember, he's not just going to be fighting for Democratic votes in the general election, he needs to get the Cedar County Independents and they like the Kaufmann name. Having the extra Dems in Johnson County is helpful, but still not enough if he can't get 46% of Cedar.

Schwab, for his part, stopped by the Cedar County Dems meeting Wendesday, where he says he got a good reception, and the Johnson County Dems meeting last night. Also on hand, some uncontested winners (Rep. Mary Mascher, Sheriff Lonny Pulkrabek, and supervisors Harney Neuzil and Sullivan) and holdover Senators Bob Dvorsky and Joe Bolkcom. But the big news came from former county chair Brian Flaherty, newly minted J.D., who's taking a job with the US Attorney's office in - dig this - the Northern Mariana Islands. Good luck buddy and don't forget that absentee ballot.

Legislative Primary Results Help Dems

The preview never did get done so let's just jump straight to the postmortem.

In general, incumbents won their seats and ideologues won the open seats. Surprised that only one of the dozen House Republicans with a primary, Erik Helland, lost. Ideology was a factor, but I think the dustup over Helland offering opponent Jake Highfill a job in exchange for dropping out was a bigger factor.

So how does all this affect Democratic chances in the fall?

Leaving aside blowouts, expected primary outcomes, races between two solid candidates, and uncontested or safe seats on both sides, here's how I see the primary results rippling into the general election.

Helps Dems

2nd Congressional District: In the days before Varnum-Brien, the typicaan judicial retention victory margin was about 80 percent to 20. 20 percent of people just automatically vote No. And that was Loebsack's margin ove Joe Seng, 81 to 19, putting to lie the imagined "weakness" of the three term congressman in his new counties. Here in his new home, the People's Republic, Loebsack won 91 to 9.

Senate District 4: Teapartyish Dennis Guth defeated former Senator Jim "Back In" Black. Bob Jennings looks like the kind of Democrat who can win on rural turf.

Senate District 6: Queer-bashing buffoon Mark Segebart beat Terry Branstad's recruit, Carroll mayor Adam Schweers. Democrat Mary Bruner is a strong candidate with family connections to Mike Gronstal.

Senate District 36: Marshalltown area Republicans chose a two-time state House loser, Jane Jech, over a former state senator who nearly got elected to Congress, Larry McKibben. Freshman Democrat Steve Sodders can breathe a little easier.

Senate District 46: Shawn Hamerlinck's defeat of co-incumbent Jim Hahn puts the friends and neighbors effect into play for November, as Scott-based Hamerlinck faces Democrat Chris Brase of Muscatine, which was Hahn's base.

House District 30: Hard-right Jim Carley beat Carol Miller in the race to replace Kim Pearson, and Democrat Joe Riding has won city-wide in Altoona. Caveat: Pearson won.

House District 73: David Johnson, frankly, was running a weak campaign before Solon school board member Dick Schwab was recruited, and this R held D leaning seat is a must win for both sides.

Johnson carried his Cedar County turf, sure. But other than a couple of die-hard Schwab haters (who are in Johnson County anyway) the support will shift.

Hurts Dems

Senate District 22: I really though Jeff Mullen was going to knock off Pat Ward. Desmund Adams is a great Democratic candidate, but this is the seventh or eighth most Republican seat in the state. For all his hard work, Adams will have a tougher time against Ward.

House District 50: Pat Grassley beats Annette Sweeney in the lone two incumbent House race. It's not about this seat, as no Democrat is running. But it would have been advantageous if Grandson Grassley's career had been derailed before he turns 30 next year and becomes eligible to run for the U.S. Senate in 2016.

House District 72: Highly touted tribal official Christina Blackcloud-Garcia was a surprise loser to Nathan Wrage in this Tama-centric district, the open Lance Horbach seat. On paper he looks like a weaker contender against Republican Dean Fisher, and I'm not sure what happened here.

House District 34: Republican Patty Branco appears sane, which is more than can be said for Dave Leach, who likes to defend doctor murderers. So she might get a couple extra points in her inevitable loss to Democrat Bruce Hunter.

A personal note on primary results

You've no doubt noticed my "writer's block" recently. Something big has been going on that I've pretended not to acknowledge in this space, and that's impaired my ability to write about other things.

It's been a very challenging three months for my co-workers and myself. Beyond that I'm still not ready to say much.

I'll figure out the other primaries in the next several hours. I'm taking a vacation with my family soon. After that I hope to get back to a more normal cycle of writing, I'll return to the public events I've been avoiding, and will support the Democratic ticket.

Thank you to the friends and family who have offered me personal support; I'm sure my co-workers would say the same.

Primary Preview: Republican Senate Races

I've been prepping for an election, a vacation, and a gardening season all at once. Something had to give, and it's been the writing. Still trying to preview a primary that's now just two days away, and only on part three of five. Today it's a look at the Republican senate races.

The mother of all primaries has been in Senate District 22 between mobile moderate incumbent Pat Ward, who has moved about a half a district west to avoid a pair-up on Democratic turf, and right wing minister Jeff Mullen. The district is half Polk, half Dallas: Clive, Waukee, Windsor Heights and parts of WDM.

Every conservative from Michelle Bachman to - get this blast from the past - Phyllis Schlafly - is weighing in for Mullen, who's been going negative. In a GOP primary electorate I always give the more conservative contender the edge. But Republicans need to think about electability, even in a strong Republican district, as Democrats have a real go-getter in attorney Desmund Adams.

Ward,  who in January trailed both Adams and Mullen in fundraising, now has the lead, raising $49,246 as of Friday and spending $34,779. Mullen has raised $14,671 and spent $11,827. Ward's got the business PACs, Mullen has the ideology groups.

Ideology also shows up in the Senate District 36 primary in Marshalltown. Two time House loser Jane Jech got in early and has the Bob Vander Plaats nod; former Senator Larry McKibben was recruited back into the ball game by Branstad. He has the money edge with $18,539 raised and $10,591 spent. Jech has raised $5289 and spet $4411. The Marshalltown Times-Republican has a good overview. Winner faces freshman Democrat Steve Sodders in what should be a top tier swing seat race.

It's a pragmatist vs. purist faceoff in open Senate District 4 between former Senator Jim "Back In" Black and tea partyish Dennis Guth, as the Mason City Globe-Gazette reports.

Republican Steve Kettering is retiring in Senate District 6. Carroll mayor Adam Schweers has the backing of popular former state representative Rod Roberts, while county supervisor Mark Segebart is running to the anti-gay right. Sac County sheriff's deputy Matthew Biede appears to be an afterthought.

Wayne County supervisor Amy Sinclair looks like a favorite in open Senate District 14 where deposed (call it what it is) Senate minority leader Paul McKinley is retiring. The new seat includes four whole counties - Clarke, Lucas, Decatur and Wayne - plus most of Mahaska, with the exception of Pella. It also has a chunk of southern Jasper County and is more competitive than the old seat.

Despite hailing from the district's smallest county, Sinclair has a big money lead with over 14k raised and big name donors including Lt. Gov. Kim Reynolds (who represented some of this turf), Senator Chickenman Chelgren, and Rep. Joel Fry. Steven Everly of Knoxville had just $535, and Stephanie Jones of Knoxville as distinguished herself mostly by getting in trouble with the law.

The only two incumbent Senate primary is in Senate District 46 between veteran legislator Jim Hahn of Muscatine and freshman Shawn Hamerlinck of various Scott County addresses. The district is exactly half Muscatine, half Scott, meaning the friends and neighbors dynamic may be decisive.. Ed Tibbets has a good overview. The winner faces Democrat Chris Brase, a firefighter from Muscatine, on turf that leans very slightly Democratic.

The other contests are low key. In new no incumbent Senate District 10 in Dallas County and points west, Jake Chapman is an overwhelming favorite over Matthew Mardesen, who started late and has some personal issues. Dems have no candidate. I can't top the Iowa Republican overview.

In no-incumbent Senate District 48 in Delaware, Jones, and rural Linn counties, Dan Zumbach has spent almost none of a $20k warchest against Some Dude Brian Cook. Winner faces Democratic Rep. Nate Willems of Lisbon in a very competitive seat.

Lee County supervisor Larry Kruse is a favorite over one-time congressional candidate Lee Harder in open Senate District 42, where Democrat Gene Fraise is retiring. The winner of a Democratic primary should be favored, but Fraise was held to 53% in 2004.

And in Dubuque's Senate District 50, perennial candidate John Hulsizer Jr., a landslide loser in the general four years ago, faces Paulite ex-congressional candidate Will Johnson for the right to lose to Democrat Pam Jochum in the fall.

Last Day of Roosevelt: A Student Speaks

Today is the last day for our school, Roosevelt Elementary. We had sixth grade graduation yesterday and our son Hayden was chosen to speak. He's writing better than I am these days so I'm turning the space over to him today.

Throughout my years at Roosevelt, I've had a lot of fun. Fun traditions filled our school. As this is the last year, I am honored to write one of the last graduation speeches for Roosevelt.

I have some advice for 5th graders, for both next year and the year after that, practice the locker combination. Also, for School Of The Wild wear jeans to avoid getting moss and other living things on you.

Now on to the 6th graders. We have one day left in elementary school, use it wisely; make sure it is well spent because after this no more recess.

Try your best next year and it will pay off. Next year is a whole lot more confusing for both 5th and 6th; we only have 2-3 years left until high school, which is even more complicated. Use your last minutes of childhood wisely or else you'll want to relive it over and it will haunt you forever.

As I'm graduating I soon hope to become a scholar. I then want to then learn different languages such as Spanish, German, French, Korean, and maybe even Japanese. I also then hope to learn Latin, which is one of the many languages that helped invent English.

We are the last graduating class of Roosevelt. We shall embrace it, because in the five years I've been here it's been far better than my old school in Missouri.

From the Apple Orchard, to the Wax Museum, this school has been a lot of fun. All paid for by our PTO which is so kind and generous. We all need to make Roosevelt proud by trying out best to succeed. We are the Road Runners.

Primary Preview: Democratic House Races

In stark contrast to the House GOP, no incumbent House Democrats face primary challenges, not even of the Some Dude variety. The contested races are all open seats or challenges to Republican incumbents. And even in those few races, events have been low-key and news is hard to find.

To tell ya the truth, only two of these races are even very interesting, and donning the Beret of Objectivity the most interesting one is in my backyard.

House District 73 is Cedar County based. District line changes expanded the Johnson County part to include the greater Solon area and contracted the Muscatine County part to just the city limits of Wilton.

For months, this looked like a straight matchup between Republican incumbent Jeff Kaufmann, in a significantly weakened district, and Democrat David Johnson, who was on the West Branch city council when he announced soon after Map Day (he did not seek re-election last year).

But privately, many leading local Democrats were grumbling that Johnson was a weak candidate for a must-win district, and recruiting efforts continued. It's Johnson's third run for the House; in 1992 he ran as an independent against Bob Dvorsky, and in 1994 he challenged Dick Myers in a primary, losing 80-20. Meanwhile, rumors of a Kaufmann retirement or even immediate resignation were flying.

Both stories broke in the last  weeks before the filing deadline. In late February, Solon school board member and former NCS executive Dick Schwab jumped in. Schwab has a high philanthropy profile in Johnson County and was the Press-Citizen's Person Of The Year in 2001.Then just a week before filing deadline and the night before county conventions, Kaufmann announced he was retiring and running for the Board of Supervisors instead. The next day, son Bobby Kaufmann rolled out his campaign.

The Democratic primary battle has gotten nasty enough that the Johnson County Democrats banned primary discussion in their Facebook group. This brief write-up can scarcely scratch the surfaces of the local nuances, but if you're in Johnson County you'd be interested in a look at the donor lists for Johnson and Schwab. It's all individuals; labor and other groups stayed out.

To grossly oversimplify for outsiders: Schwab has been at the center of a local zoning and road fight over his "Celebration Barn," where he hosts weddings and other events. The same approximate cluster of issues along Newport Road north of Iowa City led to a primary defeat for an incumbent county supervisor in 2006, and by coincidence zoning and conditional use hearings over Schwab's property have cropped up during the primary period.

Johnson, for his part, is arguing that a Cedar County candidate would be stronger in the general election.He has raised $6,461.81 and spent $5,894.62. Schwab, with a later start, leads with  $11,196.00 raised and $8,628.04 spent.

The other hot Democratic primary is in House District 36 in the northwest corner of Des Moines, bounded roughly by 30th Street and University Avenue. This primary deserves the designation Democratic primaries used to get in the old South: "tantamount to election." This solid Democratic seat opened up right after Map Day when incumbent Janet Petersen opted for the just as good Senate seat.

Marti Anderson is former director of the Crime Victim Assistance Division of the Attorney General’s Office in the Iowa Department of Justice, and is married to Bob Brammer, longtime spokesperson at AG's office. Not surprisingly, she's got Tom Miller's support. Cara Kennedy-Ode and William Rock both announced early.

The differences in this race appear to be mostly demographic; a recent debate showed few issue differences. The donor lists for Anderson and Kennedy-Ode read like a who's who of Democratic politicos in Iowa.

Someone from Polk County will have to dig through to see a meaningful pattern; all I could detect was a slight generational skew of Kennedy-Odes folks being generally younger than Anderson's. Kennedy-Ode had a slight edge with $37,805.27 raised and $11,904.90 spent. Anderson raised $29,515.31 and spent $13,177.74. Again, all of this is individual donors with no labor or other interest group money.

Without a time-consuming cross-check, it looks like no one was backing both sides (in the Johnson-Schwab race a few local pols carefully gave identical checks to both). The two most meaningful non-Miller names to out-staters - Roxanne Conlin and Sen. Jack Hatch - are with Anderson. Janet Petersen stayed out of it.

It's orthodoxy among Iowa Democrats that more women need to be elected. Rock, running for a female-held safe seat against two strong female candidates, frankly looks like an afterthought, a good guy in the wrong place at the wrong time. He raised $2,559.13 and spent  $1,792.48. But he does have the best committee name: "Citizens for Rock," which unfortunately Tenacious D did not release on their new album. (Unfortunately for William, JB and KG assess his primary chances: "Rock Is Dead.")

So those are the good ones. Let's look at the rest, since no one else is.

House District 16 is the more Republican of the two Council Bluffs seats, but still winnable in a good Democratic year, and since this is half of Mike Gronstal's Senate seat expect a big get out the vote effort.. The Democrats did win this seat's predecessor... until Doug Struyk switched parties. This was a pair-up of two GOP freshmen; Mary Ann Hanusa, who replaced Struyk, stayed put while Mark Brandenburg moved across town.

Two Democrats are challenging Hanusa in House 16. Ron Pierce is director of the Fuller Foundation of Pottawattamie County; to make the long story short Fuller Foundation branched off from Habitat for Humanity but is in pretty much the same line of work. Heidi Guggisberg-Coners is a youth motivational speaker.

No news coverage of any kind that I can find since the perfunctory mentions during filing week, most of which were by me. Pierce has raised $3,095.00 and spent $2,190.60; Guggisberg-Coners did not file a May 19 campaign finance report, meaning she's likely below the $750 that triggers reporting requirements.

House District 18 is an odd place to have a contested Democratic primary, as two-term Republican Jason Schultz went unopposed in both the  2008 and 2010 general elections. The district is centered on Denison and western Crawford County and includes all of Shelby County. It's a good Republican district but not beyond hope.

Democrat Kasey Friedrichsen offers a symbolically powerful argument against Team Branstad 5.0: She worked at the Denison unemployment office until Branstad's budget cutting closed the doors. With that in mind, she's drawing significant labor support. Friedrichsen raised $9,919, with nearly half - $5,000 - from AFSCME. If nothing else, a strong fall effort by a candidate of this background helps the president and Christie Vilsack.

The other Democrat, Dunlap Mayor Bernard Murphy, raised $2028 and has spent it all.

House District 49 is another weird spot for a primary, as GOP incumbent Dave Deyoe has a fairly solid seat in Nevada and outlying Story County. It may have just been a matter of oops; in the lone story about the race, nurse Garland Bridges of Eldora said that when he announced he was unaware that said he was unaware fellow Democrat Kevin Ericson of Maxwell was running for the seat when Bridges made his decision. So obviously neither of them was really getting the word around.

Ericson has the money lead with $1,652.00 raised and $810.18 spent. Bridges has gotten one $50 check and spent $820.57 out of pocket.

House District 72 is an open Tama County based seat, where Republican Lance Horbach announced his retirement before The Map was even released.

The line changes shifts the district into the swing seat zone. Democrats look to be making a serious effort with Sac and Fox tribal executive Christina Blackcloud-Garcia. She got the whole House Democrats rollout press release treatment... and then she got a primary opponent. Nathan Wrage of Gladbrook is a school custodian and county conservation board member.

Surprisingly, Wrage has the money lead, raising $2,983.00 -- $2500 of that from family members -- with $289.35 spent. Blackcloud-Garcia has raised just $1,830.00, with $1000 of that from one Michael Smith, a lobbyist for DC firm Cornerstone Government Affairs. Another $650 came from DC-area addresses, leaving just $180 in unitemized, local hat-pass type donations. She spent just $109.27.

Stay tuned for Part 3: Republican Senate races.

Primary Preview: Contested Democratic Senate Races

With my self-declared semi-hiatus, the beret is getting a little dusty. Time to shake off some cobwebs.

Most of the excitement this primary season is on the right hand side of the ballot, with two contested Republican congressional primaries and a rash of primary challenges and open-seat fights. There's much less action on the Democratic side - two weeks out, and huh? congressional challenger Joe Seng is invisible, perhaps hoping to be the Keith Judd of Iowa and attract votes simply by getting his name - barely - on the ballot.

But there are still some interesting legislative primaries, and since a May 19 campaign finance filing deadline is a big chunk to chew on all at once, I'll ease in with those races before working my appetite up for the Republican primary challengers.

Senate District 14

This is the open seat of former Senate GOP leader Paul McKinley, and the new turf is much friendlier for a Democrat. The new seat includes four whole counties - Clarke, Lucas, Decatur and Wayne - plus most of Mahaska, with the exception of Pella. It also has a chunk of southern Jasper County.

Democrat Dick Schrad, the former Knoxville City Manager, is the clear favorite here for the Democratic nomination. His opponent, James Demichelis Sr., won 33% in a 2008 House race.

Schrad had raised or loaned himself $4,339.20 and spent $3,567.18 by May 15. Demichelis did not file a report, indicating he likely was below the $750 reporting threshold. In fact, the most noteworthy thing about Demichelis is that James Demichelis Jr. is running in a House primary in an overlapping seat -- as a Republican, forcing family members to choose which party's primary they want to vote in. And the immediate family vote may well be a significant share of his support.

Senate District 38

Democrats see enough opportunity here that they're having a three-way primary. GOP freshman Tim Kapucian is drawn into a dead even seat with lots of new territory. The lines are simple: Benton, Iowa, Poweshiek. Three whole counties.

Rural Grinnell "activist" LaForest Sherman was first to announce for the Democrats, followed by Shelley Parbs of Urbana and banker Nick Volk of Walford. Watch that friends and neighbors dynamic.

Parbs had raised a respectable $7,410, largely from labor and also from some Linn County donors including former Cedar Rapids mayor Kay Halloran. Parbs had spent $3,364.65 by May 15. Volk raised $3,590, mostly from family, and spent $2,883.79. Sherman did not file a report.

Senate District 42

Democrat Gene Fraise, who has held some variation of this seat since 1986, is stepping down as he turns 80, prompting primaries in both parties. Lee County makes up 59% of the district, with Henry making up 33% and the rest bits of Washington and Jefferson.

The early favorite was Fort Madison mayor Steve Ireland, but he dropped out shortly before losing his battle with cancer in March. Donna Amandus, also of Fort Madison, was chairing Ireland's campaign, and is now running herself. She faces another Fort Madison candidate, electrician and party activist Bob Morawitz, and Mount Pleasant's Rich Taylor, a recently retired corrections officer.

Taylor has a big money lead with $17,544 raised -- $11,000 of that from his own union, AFSCME. (Other unions or groups don't look to be involved in this race.) He's spent $7,846.27 of that. Morawitz raised $8,021.30 and spent $1,532.42, just behind Amandus who has $8,673.91 raised and $5,148.24 spent.

Senate District 49

This Clinton-based seat is the only two year Senate term on the ballot. The Democratic race was in limbo for quite a while after Map Day due to a pair-up one seat to the north. But Tod Bowman stayed with Jackson County and this seat went open. Clinton County is whole and makes up about 3/4 of the seat, with the rest in and northern Scott County.

Two Democratic women are running: Rita Hart of Wheatland, a community volunteer and retired teacher, and Clinton attorney Dorothy O'Brien.

O'Brien has the money lead with $11,536.12 raised and $7,866.88 spent. Her donors included former legislators Art Ollie, Polly Bukta and Tom Schueller (who's attempting a comeback after losing a 2010 upset). Hart raised an also solid $9,073.00, with $6,922.75 spent. Hart donors included former auditor Charlie Sheridan. Clinton's current state representative, Mary Wolfe, donated to both candidates.

Whichever Democrat wins should be favored in November, but Republicans have a strong candidate. Andrew Naeve lost to Bowman by just 70 votes two years ago, in a more Democratic version of this seat.

Part two, when I get around to it next couple-a days, is the Democratic House primaries. Then I'll be back in shape enough to tackle the Republican races.

famIly leader Endorses

Your District of the Day obsessive is still out here, quietly monitoring the action in all those GOP legislative primary challenges and ignoring little stuff like Mitt Romney in Des Moines and Obama backing marriage equality.

The whole season got delayed by the elongated legislative session, but the release of a list by the famI leader himself, BVP, is as good an excuse as any to round up the random stuff.

Let's start with BVP's endorsements. Only one of these, Steve Sodder's Senate 36, is Democratic-held.

Dennis Guth of Klemme, Senate District 4: Guth is clearly the righty against Branstad-recruited, one-year ex-senator Jim "Back In" Black.

Jeff Mullen of Clive, Senate District 22: No surprise at all here, as BVP picks the social conservative minister over semi-incumbent Pat Ward. Liberty Iowa PAC also backed Mullen last week. West Des Moines Patch had a good look at the race recently.

Jane Jech of Marshalltown, Senate District 36: VERY interesting that famIly leader emphasizes this race, pitting two-time House loser Jech against the man who held this seat four years ago, Larry McKibben (who Branstad endorsed yesterday). Tells me that this is a direction of the party thing as much as anything.

Over on the House side:

Rep. Tom Shaw of Laurens, House District 10. Here's one where the incumbent is on the right. Shaw has a from the center challenge from recent UI grad Maison Bleam. Liberty Iowa Pac weighed in for Shaw, too, and Iowa Gun Owners PAC called Bleam a "socialist sounding former staff member of the British Parliament."

 Rep. Cecil Dolecheck of Mount Ayr, House District 24. Primary challenger Jane Jensen doesn't have a high profile. Favorite quote from this KMA piece: " Jensen tells KMA News she's running for the legislature because she's angry with the federal government."

Joan Acela of Winterset, House District 25: The then-Madison County supervisor came in second to Julian Garrett of Indianola when the seat was open last cycle, in a race that split on county lines.

Rep. Joel Fry of Osceola, House District 27 (Challenger James Demichelis Jr., of Chariton) and Rep. Kevin Koester of Ankeny, House District 38 (Challenger is Brett Nelson of Saylor Township) Odd choices as both challengers have Some Dude profiles.

Rep. Jarad Klein of Keota, House District 78: BVP backs freshman Klein, a Sandy Greiner protege, over tea-partyish Priscilla Marlar of Wayland.

Other observations over the week:

Other than Dogs Against Annette Sweeney, her debate last night with Grandson Grassley offered few differences. I live in House District 50, I want to stay in the Legislature, I don't want to move.

Iowa Gun Owners PAC is targeting freshman Republican Jeff Smith in House District 1, saying Smith "BROKE HIS PLEDGE to support Constitutional Carry and voted with anti-gun Democrats to KILL the bill." Challenger Kevin Wolfswinkel "WILL be a vote we can count on in the General Assembly." Wolfswinkel is hosting a Friday event with Sen. Kent Sorenson, Rep. Kim the one term wonder Pearson and Shaw, who must not be too worried about his own primary if he has time for this. All Wolfswinkel needs is Glen Massie to complete the set.

Ruh-roh: Mark Segebart, a Crawford County supervisor, is hatin' Teh Gay in Senate 6, under a classic Doug Burns headline "Scooby-Doo can turn your kid gay."

Bret Hayworth looks at dueling endorsements in Sioux City based House District 13. This was the old Chris Rants seat, and Rants weighed in for his successor, Ron Jorgensen. Politically active minister Cary Gordon is backing the challenger, Matthew Ung. Gordon even manages to work in a dig at Thaddeus McCotter (Rants was the only visible McCotter supporter in the state). Surprised not to see this race on the famIly leader list.

In the House 81 GOP primary in Ottumwa for the right to lose to Democrat Mary Gaskill, Rick McClure dissed opponent Blake Smith at a Tea Party forum over his age: “Frankly – no offense to my opponent — but I won’t ever give the keys to my hot rod to a 22-year-old.” No offense indeed, Rick; maybe you should run for the Iowa City council.

A Republican is making a write in effort in Lee County's solidly blue House 83, held by Democrat Jerry Kearns. Why Jim Steffen is trying a write-in, rather than the much easier approach of a party convention, is unclear.

Best wishes to Democrat Mike McRae, who ended his campaign in House 42 after injuries in an accident. While he recovers, Democrats will need a new challenger for West Des Moines Republican Peter Cownie.

And other than another fundraising letter last week from Dave Loebsack emphasizing Joe Seng's anti-choice record, I've seen no evidence at all of a Seng campaign. 20 days out, and not even a campaign website. I've got my Loebsack yard sign up anyway.

The Liberty List

The newly formed "Liberty Iowa PAC" put out an endorsement list of "Constitutional conservatives" for the June 5 Republican primary, which is the first scorecard-type item I've seen yet for these races. Let's walk through it District of the Day style.

David Scott Edwards – Senate District 16: Uncontested primary. Some Dude challenging longtime incumbent Dick Dearden in heavily Democratic Des Moines seat.

Jeff Mullen – Senate District 22: Not a shocker here that they're backing conservative minister Mullen over the relative moderate Pat Ward. A good GOP seat but Democrats have a strong candidate in attornet Desmund Adams.

Randi Shannon – Senate District 34: An odd choice to emphasize; Shannon fits the group's profile, but not the district's, and Liz Mathis proved herself an incredibly strong candidate in the Battle Of Marion last year. Shannon is uncontested in the primary.

Will Johnson – Senate District 50: The former congressional candidate and newly minted national delegate has a primary contest with relatively weak John Hulshizer Jr., and no chance whatsoever against Pam Jochum in this heavily Democratic seat.  (If you were running for a legislative seat, why would you want to be a national delegate? The slim chance at a moment on TV isn't worth giving up a solid week of coffees and doorknocking.)

Kevin Wolfswinkel –  House District 1: NOW it gets interesting. A clear challenge from the right, and from the new part of the district, to Okoboji freshman Jeff Smith.

Josh Davenport – House District 2: Minister Davenport joined the race in March; young attorney Megan Hess had announced early. Open seat with good GOP numbers, but not impossible for Democrat Steve Bomgaars.

Tom Shaw – House District 10: Role reversal here as the "constitutional conservative" is incumbent Shaw. He's being challenged from the relative center by former UI student government president Maison Bleam.

Jason Schultz – House District 18: Odd choice as two-term Schultz has no primary opposition. Two Democrats are facing off in June.

Steve McCoy – House District 26: The open Glen Massie seat. McCoy, Warren County GOP "co-chair" (sic), has a primary with Carlisle mayor Ruth Randleman. The winner faces strong Democratic contender Scott Ourth, who lost a 2010 upset to Massie, in a dead-even district.

Joe Corbin – House District 32: Why? No primary opponent, no chance against Democrat Ruth Anne Gaines in a deep blue seat.

Tony Seliquini – House District 36 Same deal here in the open Janet Peterson house seat, except at least Seliquini has a primary against two other Some Dudes for the right to lose in November.

Matt DeVries – House District 37: Any signals are valuable in the six-way GOP primary in This Is Where Your District Went. Look for Paul backer DeVries to win this if it goes to a convention.

Jake Highfill – House District 39: This one's a big deal with Highfill the challenger to incumbent Erik Helland, and with the charges that Helland tried to ease Highfill out of the race with a job offer.

And that's the end of the list, which in numerical order looks oddly truncated at 39.

Joe The Plumber to Coralville

I knew Ohio's 9th Congressional District was gerrymandered something awful but who'd'a thought it stretched all the way from Toledo to Coralville?

Joe the Plumber will be appearing at a town hall meeting Monday at the Coralville Holiday Inn and Conference Center.

Joe, whose real name is Samuel Joseph Wurzelbacher, shot to stardom during the 2008 presidential campaign when he asked then Sen. Barack Obama at an Ohio campaign appearance about Obama's plan for taxing small businesses. Wurzelbacher said he was about to purchase a company that makes just over $250,000 in revenue, and was concerned that Obama's tax policy would hurt his future business.

The John McCain campaign quickly dubbed Wurzelbacher, a plumber, as "Joe the Plumber" and held him up as an example of hard-working Americans who would be hurt by what Wurzelbacher called "socialist" policies.

Wurzelbacher has parlayed his fame into a political career. On March 6, he won the Republican primary for the House seat in the 9th Congressional District of Ohio.

"This thing is beautiful," says my pal redistricting consultant Jerry Mandering. "Up by Sandusky it doesn't connect by land at all, they used a freakin' BRIDGE.."

 "This is what we in the business call a Democratic vote sink," said Mandering. "You take all your best Democratic turf and cram it into one seat, to get those voters out of the next districts over where you want Republicans to win. There's no way Joe The Plumber can win this thing, and that's on purpose. That's why he's out in Iowa shilling for a superPAC instead of campaigning in Cleveland. Ohio lost two seats, the Republicans controlled the whole shebang, somebody had to get screwed, and that somebody was Dennis Kucinich. I'd feel sorry for him but now he gets to stay home with his wife. And the least famous person in this race, Marcy Kaptur, is the one who's gonna win."

So how did they extend the district all the way out to Coralville, Jerry? "Well, Coralville and Toledo is both on I-80, and I hear Coralville likes to use I-80 to connect districts."

Third Parties Goode News For Obama

Well, the "last true conservative in the race," Newt Gingrich, dropped out yesterday, well after it really mattered. Sure, Ron Paul is still fighting his rear guard effort, and finding more success at taking over party committees than at winning actual votes, but he won't be on the ballot either.

So what's an uncompromising Constitutional Conservative - like, say, Jamie Johnson of Iowa's Republican State Central Committee, who vows “My conscience will not let me help” Mitt Romney -- supposed to do?

Well, by coincidence, today is the start of the Libertarian National Convention, held appropriately enough in the do what thou wilt capital of America, Vegas, baby. The frontrunner for the nomination is the Libertarian's first bona fide elected official to seek the nomination since, well, Ron Paul in 1988. Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson ran briefly for the Republican nomination this year on the Peter Tosh platform; elected officials only seem to get vocal about drug legalization once they LEAVE office. Johnson could have some appeal to Occupy types, but my pet theory is that Libertarians take two to three votes from Republicans for every one they take from Democrats.

Perhaps more of a threat to Mitt Romney is former congressman Virgil Goode of the Constitution Party. They're more of a strict social conservative outfit than the Libertarians, but that's the ticket Paul endorsed late in the 2008 cycle. Goode's got zero appeal to lefties but could draw decisive support in one state: his own Virginia. Public Policy Polling:

Another interesting angle in Virginia is the candidacy of former Congressman Virgil Goode as the Constitution Party candidate for President. We find him polling at 5% in a three way contest with Obama's lead over Romney expanding to 12 points at 50-38. It seems unlikely Goode would ultimately get 5% but anything he gets could help flip the state to Obama given how small Romney's margin for error there is. Goode gets 10% from those describing themselves as 'very conservative,' suggesting that Romney does still have some work to do with the far right.

Romney already has a very narrow path to 270 electoral votes. Obama was the first Democrat to carry Virginia since LBJ in 1964, and Romney absolutely need to flip it back.

While Romney has some problems on the right from third parties, Obama has few worries on the left. The Greens seem to be rejecting the traditional fast track for a third party, the candidate with independent fame and name ID, in favor of the route to obscurity, the loyal party activist. Rosanne Barr of TV fame is running but is trailing Some Dude Jill Stein. In the DC Green primary, Barr tied for second with... Barack Obama write-ins.

The chattering class keeps trying to prop up the efforts of their Objective Journalism Dream Fantasy, a viable centrist independent presidential candidate. The much-ballyhooed Americans Elect project is having a lot of luck with ballot access, but much less luck getting a name candidate. They seem to be settling on "austere technocrat" David Walker, former U.S. comptroller general. But an election is not a New York Times op-ed, and without a Perot-like celebrity Americans Elect will be hard-pressed to get attention. And by its very nature a centrist party would tend to be a wash in terms of the Democrat vs. Republican dynamic.

So on balance, the one or two percent third party factor helps Obama and hurts Romney in what's likely to be a very close race. You might even say that for Obama, this is a Goode thing.

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