JCDems Need Caucus Help

One big differences between Democratic and Republican caucuses is that when Republicans have an incumbent president, they don't conduct a presidential vote. (That's not normally significant, except maybe in 1992.)

We Democrats, on the other hand, do the full show even when we're in the White House. Old timers of course remember the epic Carter-Kennedy battle of 1980, and a few of our locals are still miffed that we swept five non-Bill Clinton delegates under the rug in 1996. (We won't let that happen again; I'm sticking with the president but uncommitteds are welcome too.)

Lots of other fun stuff on deck, too: who doesn't love a good Johnson County Dems platform fight? And odds are strong that the delegates will be getting together again after the 2012 presidential election. Mid-term county supervisor Sally Stutsman is running for the Iowa House in open, solidly Democratic House 77. If when she wins, if a special election happens the delegates chosen on caucus night nominate the Democratic candidate in a special election.

But someone needs to run the show. I'll be chairing my caucus again, in Iowa City Precinct 10. (Because the date is so insanely early, we're caucusing in the old precincts, because the new ones don't kick in till January 15. One more thing that's Florida's fault.) We need some more people to chair in some more places.

In case you've been under a rock, the date is Tuesday, January 3. Sign-in starts at 6:30 and the show begins at 7. Our 57 caucuses will be clustered into eight locations, so someone more experienced will be on site to lend you a hand. Some of the proceedings will be conducted in a larger group, before we break into individual rooms for election of delegates and officers.

Here's where we need a hand.

At West High: Iowa City Precinct 9. (East of Mormon Trek, west of Teg)

At City High: Iowa City 5 and 11 (downtown; dorms and apartments east of river), Iowa City 23 (north of Rochester and east of North Dodge)

At the North Liberty Rec Center: Madison Township (northwest of North Liberty), Jefferson East (Shueyville) and Jefferson West (Swisher).

At Solon Middle School: city of Solon, Cedar and Graham Townships (Sutliff and Morse).

At Clear Creek Amana High School in Tiffin: city of Tiffin, Clear Creek township (rural Tiffin), and Hardin Township (Cosgrove).

At Hills Elementary School: Washington Township (Frytown), Pleasant Valley township (Sand Road south of Iowa City), Lincoln and Fremont (greater metropolitan Lone Tree).

Let me know if you can do one of these (jdeethATmchsi.com). If you're not in one of these, let me know anyway, because whoever is chairing your caucus could certainly use a hand. I know I could. If you don't know where you are, you can check here (lookup) or here (map of Iowa City)or just ask me. You can also stop by our central committee meeting tomorrow night at 7, at the old school district offices. (We need to move those in the near future...)

We're having a training session this Sunday, December 4, at 1 p.m. at the headquarters. Did you know we have a headquarters? 321 E. Market, across from the Bluebird Diner.

Not Mitt Of The Month: This One May Last

Despite all the volatility, the GOP nomination race has been remarkably stable. One graph speaks volumes:



Bachmann didn't peak quite that high in July, but the dynamic is the same.

As we await the anoinments by the famIly leader and Steve King, remember this: FOr folks like BVP, winning is less important than control of the party. Witness the senate seats that were pissed away in Delaware, Nevada, and Colorado last year. As JohnKWilson puts it at Kos:

The establishment Republicans are terrified of an Obama vs. Gingrich match-up in 2012, but the Republican Party has been taken over by the far right wing of the party, and they would rather lose to Obama if they can preserve conservative purity.

My thoughts on the GOP race have evolved a lot in the last few days.

First off, I was long convinced that Romney's problem was simple religious bigotry. I still think that's a factor, but I think the larger factor is his long record of issue apostasy.

Next, and this is hardly a unique thought: This Newt spike isn't the ephemeral thing that the Trump-Bachmann-Perry-Cain spikes were. That's because the Knewt is Known, probably better known among the GOP base than any other live Republican who hasn't been on a national ticket. They're not in for a big surprise like Cain=Horndog or Perry=Dumber Than A Box Of Rocks. The big picture is Contract With America and Three Wives.

Once we get to a general election, of course, the book of Quotations From Chairman Newt will be full of surprises for weak voting independents. But the GOP base doesn't care about that, because to them it's better than Romney.

There may -- MAY -- still be time for a Santorum spike, but only if the social conservatives go there en masse in the next... week or so. It's starting to feel like this Newt thing is for real, and I for one am looking forward to it.

Gary who?

Remember Gary Johnson? He was that extra guy on stage at two debates, filling a slightly different libertarian niche than Ron Paul. Another politician who decided it was OK to come out for legalizing weed AFTER his last re-election race, in his case as governor of New Mexico.

Well Johnson, despite credentials that on paper outrank Mitt Romney's (a two term, not a one-term, ex-governor) is getting fed up with being left out, and is now openly making noise about a big-L Libertarian run.

The small-l libertarians are in love with Ron Paul, with Rand as heir apparent. (who the hell names their kid "Rand"? That's almost as goofy as a Palin kid name. Who's his other kid, John Galt Paul?) But my expectation is that the `88 Big L nominee does like he did last time: refuses to endorse the GOP nominee and instead pick one of the third parties. Maybe Johnson would make the cut.

If the rEVOLution is transferable, that could pull a fair number of votes off the top. It would take some from Obama, true, but my bet is Libertarians cost the Republicans two votes for every one they take from the Dems.

In other presidential news, the Manchester Union Leader endorses the Newt, in what can best be seen as a Screw Romney nod. But does it help?

Looking back, the Union Leader has only supported two Republican candidates who went on to actually cement the GOP nomination: Reagan in 1980 and McCain in 2008. The Granite State publication endorsed Ronald Reagan in 1976 and 1980, Pete du Pont in 1988, Pat Buchanan in 1992 and 1996, Steve Forbes in 2000 and John McCain 2008.

And only one general election winner.

But Rick Perry is trying to capitalize on Gingrich's immigration comments in the last debate by campaigning with none other than Sheriff Joe Arpaio. However, Perry's not pure himself. I can't find the cite at the moment, but I read a post-debate poll showing the GOP primary electorate split on immigration roughly 40-30-20-10 as mass deportation-guest worker program-path to citizenship-don't know. Was there a niche in the field for a Tancredo-like Kick Them Out candidate?

And there's always room for the political journalist's fantasy: the brokered convention story.

One more term - or one Moore term?

Redistricting victim and nominee for 2010 Fluke Of The Year Brian "Some Dude" Moore, R-Zwingle, has announced for re-election (Dubuque Telegraph-Herald is pay-walled) in House District 58.

Moore, through odd circumstances, won the most Democratic seat held by a Republican, and while the turf changes a lot here the margin stays about the same at an April Democratic reg edge of 4102. In fact, the area was so Democratic that Moore started 2010 as a Dem himself, losing a Senate primary to Tod Bowman.

The GOP talked him into switching parties and getting into the house race against Tom Schueller, who had been an unopposed winner in 2008. Moore came out of nowhere to win by 138 votes. Schueller has announced a comeback bid.

Moore, who lives right on the edge of the new turf, loses the pieces of northern Clinton County and southern Dubuque where he got his winning margin (Schueller won Jackson County by about 250) and instead gets eastern Jones County. The only good thing for Moore is that he's not the guy who had to move. Moore and Monticello Republican Lee Hein got paired up, but in June Hein announced a move to House 96.

With higher presidential year turnout and a former incumbent as a candidate, I'd put this neat the tom of the Democratic target list. Brian may want one more term, but he may get just one Moore term.

Davenport Alderman to challenge Lykam

Lost amidst the turkey and shopping, Davenport alderman Bill Edmond let it be known Wednesday that he's running on the GOP side in House District 89, held for a decade by Democrat Jim Lykam.

It'll be an uphill fight in a district with a 2600 Democratic registration edge; Lykam went uncontested last cycle (lucky guy, in a good year for Republicans in Scott). Lykam won one term in 1988, got knocked off in by Steve Grubbs in `90, then came back on friendlier turf in 2002. The lines are similar, shifting a but south and west but staying in the city limits, this decade.

Trivia: Davenport was the last city in the state with a partisan city council. They voted to go non-partisan in 1995. The code section allowing partisan city councils remains on the books even though no one uses it.

Happy Thanksgiving

What does Thanksgiving mean? Well, for one thing, a giant hole where news should be (or, depending on your perspective, a break from the Republican presidential candidates, who I'm not thankful for and a lot of Republicans aren't either)

I completed my duties in this department two weeks ago, but for any self-respecting geek, Thanksgiving means fixing the parent's computer. This writer's goal for the holiday: the final death of Internet Explorer 6.

I'm thankful for the NFL schedule, because it gives me a rare chance to watch the Undefeated Super Bowl Champion Green Bay Packers.

Tomorrow marks my first Black Friday in the land of retail. My bar for busy days at work is set pretty high -- presidential election day in the auditor's office -- and it can't possibly be that intense and isn't nearly as long. I look on it as an interesting field study in sociology...

But mostly I'm thankful for a day with the people I'm most thankful for, Koni and our boys.

Rybak: Romney Focus Not Prediction

"The only person who's decided Mitt Romney is the nominee is Mitt Romney," Minneapolis mayor R.T. Rybak told a room of 50-odd Democrats in Iowa City today.

"I'm more than comfortable drawing the contrast with any of these folks," Rybak, who is also vice chair of the Democratic National Committee, said, without naming other Republicans. "The president has a great record."

Rybak said the focus on Romney on today's Iowa visit was due to Romney's first television ad, which implied that Obama was expressing his own views when he was in fact paraphrasing John McCain. The spot earned a "Pants On Fire" ranking from Politifacts "Truth-O-Meter."

Rybak did get in a couble zingers at fellow Minnesotans Michele Bachman and the late unlamented Tim Pawlenty at another point in the informal talk at the Democratic headquarters. His mission was to fire up the local troops in advance of the caucuses, which for Democrats this year are less of a contest and more of an organizing tool.

"It was Iowa where we had a really honest conversation about a different way to do this," said the early Obama backer of the 2008 caucus cycle. "And Iowa said yes. And that's what we've got to do again."

The event was billed as a student-oriented conversation and Rybak pitched the Obama administration's signature policy to the younger crowd members. "There will be 12 million students who will walk out of college and stay on their parent's insurance because President Obama stuck his neck out on health care."

"He wanted to go further (on the economic stimulus) but he wanted to hold this country together," Rybak said of criticism from the left that Obama had not been strong enough in negotiations with Republicans. "It would have been smarter politics to play to the base. But even before he was president, he had to be the grownup in the room."

It will be tough, running in this economy," said Rybak, "but the people of Iowa believe in common sense and in the future."



Congressional candidate Christie Vilsack, challenging Steve King in the 4th CD, was also on hand prior to other Johnson County events this evening.

"I'm running to beat Steve King, but I'm also running to help re-elect this president," said Vilsack.



Iowa Democratic Party chair Sue Dvorsky emphasized the importance of a strong statewide effort, even though the only statewide office on the ballot is the presidency. "We will make the congressional races, expanding the Senate majority, and taking back the House statewide races," she said. "Nothing, nothing, nothing is more important than expanding the Senate majority." That's right, three nothings, I counted.

Tweet Of The Year

...comes from Talking Points Memo:

BREAKING: Romney tried beer, a cigarette as a teenager http://t.co/BHOVm34c

Looks like Jason Sudeikis had it right last Saturday.



Naah, shouldn't pick on Mittens. New Hampshire at least is taking him seriously, according to this poll which has him way out front with 41% to Paul and Newt with 14 each. And pollster David Paleologos GETS the factor that will help Willard to a 26% win in Iowa: "Romney's best insurance policy... is Ron Paul, whose fixed support takes 14 percent off the table."

As we all know, BVP isn't taking Mitt seriously. Craig Robinson has the must read on who the famIly leader is looking at; like me his list starts with Santorum.

But the real GOP frontrunner, at least in debates? Zombie Reagan.

The Washington Post double-disses Iowa. First up, a big six 2012 endorsements list that names no Iowans. OK, so Grassley and Branstad have ruled themselves out, but you'd think Steve King would rank. Even better is a classic in over the top caucus hate from Richard Cohen. Iowa: we are the one percent.

Least. Surprising. Announcement. Ever: Yes, Mike Gronstal is running for re-election in Senate District 8 (one of my favorite District Of The Day writeups). Also announcing,on the opposite corner of the state, is fellow Dem Mary Jo Wilhelm in Senate District 26. She's paired up with Republican Merlin Bartz, who is learning the hard way that good fences do NOT make good neighbors.



And just for fun: the cats needed a bath.

Beret Bets Bob Backs...

Rick Santorum. It was always between Santorum and Bachmann, after the rollout of the flawed Purity Pledge or whatever the hell it was called.

Why Santorum instead of Bachmann (which would have made for a quintuple alliterative headline)? Because Mr. famIly leader is all about being the kingmaker. Bachmann has had her moment, and what's less important than her fade is that there are too many other people who can claim credit if she makes a comeback. Santorum is the only Iowa-contesting candidate who hasn't been a flavor of the month, so if he gets lucky at the last minute and that 99 county strategy pays off, BVP thinks he can claim it was all his doing.

As for non-Iowa contesting candidates, anyone else catch the real Jon Huntsman on SNL this weekend? He was OK on Weekend Update, but he was definitely upstaged by Kermit The Frog.

Back in Des Moines, Rahm Emanuel kept the focus on just one Republican, devoting a big chunk of his Jefferson-Jackson speech to Mitt Romney, but not mentioning. any. other. Republican. even. once. (I missed out in person, and tuned in on CSPAN just as Rahm started, so I'm sure the other speakers got in a few zingers at the rest of the field.)

A touchdown dance for Dems today: Liz Mathis officially becomes Senator Liz Mathis at a 5 p.m. swearing in at Ohnward Bank and Trust in Marion. Also in the Iowa Senate, Brad Zaun takes time away from the Bachmann campaign to announce for re-election in Iowa Senate District 20, which moves out toward the suburbs and is better GOP turf for the one-time congressional candidate.

More thoughs on the death of Iowa Independent (as of this morning: 404) from Bleeding Heartland and me at the Register.

Paul Krugman on why the failure of the supercommittee is good: "You see, admitting that one side is willing to make concessions, while the other isn’t, would tarnish one’s centrist credentials. And the result is that the G.O.P. pays no price for refusing to give an inch. "

404 for Iowa Independent

In traditional print journalism, the end of the story is - 30 - . On line, it's 404 Not Found. Either way, that's the story this week for Iowa Independent, which has folded after four and a half years.

In an "open letter to readers" which as of Monday morning appears to be off line along with the rest of the site (UPDATE: It was back up by 10 AM), editor Lynda Waddington said that a business "shift in strategy" had led to the closing of two other state sites that were part of the American Independent network. As for Iowa: "The decision, as it was explained to me, is not one of will I stay or will I go, but is centered on the timing of my departure."

It was a blogging supergroup, the original Iowa Independent of 2007 and 2008. The recruiters brought in the core of the Iowa liberal blogosphere that had emerged in 2006. A few names came and went, but the core stayed together. Doug Burns. Tom Lindsay. Chase Martyn. Lynda Waddington. Dien Judge. And me.

It was a model for journalism of the future, which I believe will be funded by political interests rather than advertisers, with the burden of "objectivity" placed on the reader. Yes, we leaned a bit left in our outlook, but we played our journalism straight and fair. We had this state blanket covered through the epic 2008 caucus cycle. We knew the lay of the land better than the national press did because we were here on the ground all the time. (I still don't think anyone in the national media really understands Democratic caucus apportionment and viability.)

But the business side of things broke up the band immediately after the 2008 general election, and I was one of the casualties. Lynda Waddington and the skeleton crew that survived continued excellent work, with occasional help from stringers. But without the resources to keep eight or nine half to full time people on the ground, the site was never quite the same.

The state's conservatives have figured it out: TheIowaRepublican is not even close to what the original IowaIndy was, but it's a great one-stop shop for GOP news, clearly conservative but not necessarily party line. And there's clearly some money coming from somewhere. The Democrats know this but haven't followed up.

I started blogging nine years ago, just as a hobby, with no intention of turning it into a side job. There's a little money involved in the Register column, not nearly as much as there was with Iowa Independent. But that's not really why I do it. One of the best things I've read recently on writing came from, of all places, humor site Cracked:

If you're making money online, it's because you kept at it for zero reward until that happened. Some people want to quit their jobs because they hate them and go write instead, which is the exact wrong attitude for a writer. You write because you love it. You write on top of your regular work, because words might be the true expression of your soul, but your unique spirit doesn't pay the rent.

Some people get hired straight into writing because they were smart enough to do the "find out what you really want to do and work at it utterly" thing in college, which is what college is for. The rest of us simply work two jobs, where the second is unpaid for a long time.

This means that you're pouring all your free time into writing, work that matters to you, instead of spending it in an endless parade of distractions to forget the next day's early start. You keep doing this until you're earning as much from the writing as you were from your old job, then you reward yourself by taking a 50 percent pay cut by going full time and betting "I can work twice as hard as I have been doing just to earn as much as I was."

I missed the Jefferson-Jackson dinner and the Republican events over the weekend because I was working at my second job. It's not a writing job; I use some of my tech skills at a major retailer. The money's not great but the work is OK and they're good about scheduling around my first job. The point is: When my second job was with Iowa Independent, I would have been at those events. But it's a lot harder for a writer to justify time off paid work and a tank of gas when it's a hobby and not a job.

I wish Lynda and the rest all the best; any news organization in the state would be smart to sign her up ASAP.

Dumb Mistake, Dumber Law

Occupy is by design a leaderless movement, but in Des Moines, David Goodner had emerged as a major de facto leader. I'd feuded with David and others, most significantly in August, about the role of civility in political discourse. I threw the phrase "getting their kicks out of getting arrested" around a lot. I like David and I think we're basically on the same side of things. But I think his personal commitment to confrontationalism has colored the direction of the whole Des Moines group from early on.

Goodner was arrested again on Friday as a part of an Occupy march, but unfortunately a drug charge was thrown in. He sent a very sincere letter of apology to movement members and says he's going to step back for a while.

It must be a very painful time to take a semi-voluntary break when so much excitement is happening. Occupy's enemies will no doubt use this to try to discredit a whole movement. But it's really just one very smart, very sincere, very passionate young man working things out.

Goodner talks of possible drug rehab in his letter. I don't know his situation, but it's not necessarily substance abuse just because the substance is illegal. Putting yourself in a risk of arrest situation while you're holding is just a dumb mistake, one that a veteran protester like David should never have made. You know what's even dumber? Marijuana being illegal in the first place. "Rehab" may be less necessary than just some time for Goodner to think about his priorities and approach. I wish him well and hope we can be on the same side more often than not.

Dems have Senate 46 Candidate

The Republicans have two incumbent senators in Senate District 46, and now Democrats have a candidate:

Muscatine firefighter and paramedic Chris Brase, 49, will seek the Democratic nomination for Senate District 46 next spring.

If he wins the primary on June 5 Brase will face one of two incumbent Republican senators, Jim Hahn of Muscatine or Shawn Hamerlinck of Dixon. Both GOP senators reside within the boundaries of the newly redrawn district.

Brase said he’s received encouragement to run from other Democrats, including Sen. Tom Courtney, D-Burlington. He also has the support of many of his fellow firefighters.

Courtney's from the safe adjacent district to the south so he's likely to help out a lot.

The district is exactly half Muscatine County, half Scott. It pairs long time legislator Jim Hahn of Muscatine and freshman Shawn Hamerlinck, who was on the Davenport city council when elected in 2008, but has moved to Dixon. The general Map Day assumption was that Hahn, who'll be 76 on Election Day 2012, would retire. But he's announced. The rumor mill is now saying that Hamerlinck, who's had a job transition, may just go home.

Whoever Brase faces, it'll be in a swing seat (D + 461 registration in April). Muscatine had been trending Democratic in the 2000s decate, but the house seat flipped back to the GOP last year.

Dawson Tries Again In House 14

We may have another Iowa House rematch, but a redistricting pairup makes it a bit uncertain.

Democrat Dave Dawson has announced a second try in House District 14, in west Sioux City. He lost a similar district by about 600 votes to Jeremy Taylor in 2010; the seat had been held by Democrat Wesley Whitead before that.

But the minimal line changes shifted Taylor into the east side House District 13, held by freshman Democrat Chris Hall. Hall, one of a very few Democratic freshmen, took over from fellow Democrat Roger Wendt, who retired in ill health and passed away earlier this year.

14 is slightly more Democratic (D + 1976 registration in April, vs. D + 848 for District 13). The registration margins overstate Democratic strength since Woodbury County is historically among the lowest turnout parts of the state. With Dawson running in 14 we can infer that Hall is staying in 13. Taylor has a tough battle either way: move to 14 and get a rematch, or stay in 13 for a two incumbent race.

Friday clip show

THIS didn't take long post-election:

The City Council on Monday will discuss changes to the 21-only bar ordinance that would place more rules on establishments like restaurants that want to be exempt from the law.

The proposal comes from the Partnership for Alcohol Safety (sic), which is a group of city leaders, University of Iowa officials and students, business owners and community leaders.

The group wants to stop what it sees as establishments taking advantage of exemptions to the law, which bans people younger than 21 from being in places with liquor licenses after 10 p.m.

Doc Dobyns is jumping up and down in anticipation.

From the Deeth Blog's Department of Shameless Self-Promotion, here's the Talking With Yale Cohn city election post-mortem I did with Garry Klein and Adam Sullivan.



Branstad is fined for spreading BS, only it's the wrong Branstad. And it's not metaphorical rhetorical BS, it's actual BS.

A handy checklist here for caucus-watchers that lists staffing and endorsements in Iowa.

Iowa legislative stuff; Bleeding Heartland has a good overview of the Senate 26 pairup of Dem Mary Jo Wilhelm and Republican Merlin Bartz, who has a tin ear about his fence line. And a routine re-elect announcement from Sharon Steckman (D-Mason City) that emphasizes the small changes in a District Draws Itself seat (Mason City proper is something like 90% of ideal district size).

---

Sad news in the Iowa journalism world. An open letter from Iowa Independent editor Lynda Waddington indicates that the site is likely in its final days.

It was a blogging supergroup, the original Iowa Independent of 2007 and 2008. A few names came and went, but the core stayed together. Doug Burns. Tom Lindsay. Chase Martyn. Lynda Waddington. Dien Judge. And me.

One of the best things I've read recently on writing came from, of all places, Cracked:

if you're making money online, it's because you kept at it for zero reward until that happened. Some people want to quit their jobs because they hate them and go write instead, which is the exact wrong attitude for a writer. You write because you love it. You write on top of your regular work, because words might be the true expression of your soul, but your unique spirit doesn't pay the rent.

Some people get hired straight into writing because they were smart enough to do the "find out what you really want to do and work at it utterly" thing in college, which is what college is for. The rest of us simply work two jobs, where the second is unpaid for a long time.

This means that you're pouring all your free time into writing, work that matters to you, instead of spending it in an endless parade of distractions to forget the next day's early start. You keep doing this until you're earning as much from the writing as you were from your old job, then you reward yourself by taking a 50 percent pay cut by going full time and betting "I can work twice as hard as I have been doing just to earn as much as I was."

Good luck to Lynda and everyone else associated with the site.

Four Way Stop

Polling doesn't get much wackier than this: I know I'm a little late to the party but I have to note the Bloomberg survey released late Monday that shows a four way dead heat in Iowa.

Cain 20
Paul 19
Romney 18
Gingrich 17
Perry 7
Bachmann 5
Santorum 3
Huntsman 1

It reminds us caucus vets of the four way Kerry-Edwards-Dean-Gephardt tie on caucus eve 2004.

But my gut check is this one's a fluke. It catches the flavor of the month transition of the Not Mitt role from Cain to Gingrich. The more I think about it, the more I buy Rachel Maddow's theory that the Cain campaign is in fact a performance art project.

I can't see Newt lasting long in this role either; his personal failings are too much for the Vander Plaats constituency to accept. Speaking of the famIly leader (remember, the upper case I is for Bob's self-importance), he's saving his venom this week for Romney. Miffed that Mitt is the only major candidate to skip the royal command performance this weekend, he calls Romney "not smart enough to be president.” Strong statement when the options are Herman Cain and Perry the Platypus.

I think the Ron Paul spike here is a statistical fluke. Paul has a rock solid 12 to 15 percent that won't get much bigger or much smaller; he's not going to climb to, say, 30. He could take second if the rest of the field splinters enough. And statistically, a strong Paul performance helps Mitt. By soaking up an indigestible X percent, Paul lowers the share of the remaining 85 percent or so that Romney will need to place first. Everything is still pointing to a Dole-like 26 percent win.

Michele Bachmann, meanwhile, has a new web ad that slams Mitt, Cain, Newt, Paul and Perry, multiple times each, with their own words, for deviations from conservative orthodoxy.



"Don't Settle," it pleads. But notice who she didn't bash? Rick Santorum. It may be because she's ahead of him, or it may be because those litmus test failures can't be found. (She may have been scared of Googling him...)

In any case, Santorum has not yet had his turn as flavor of the month. Who knows: he could get lucky and be the latest Not Mitt at just the right moment. I may check him out tomorrow; 7:30 AM, Hamburg Inn.

Our Demands: Putting Cliches First

Register today:

Protesters occupied Herman Cain’s presidential campaign headquarters and the business office of Mitt Romney’s Iowa campaign leader Tuesday morning in protest of the candidates’ plans to reduce government...

In an e-mail release sent today to the Register, CCI leaders said they delivered letters to the Cain office and the office of Romney’s consultant.

The letter demands that the candidates put people first...

Register Friday:

Occupy Des Moines protesters showed up at Iowa’s largest health-insurance company today to demand relief from rate increases.

About a dozen protesters delivered a letter addressed to John Forsyth, chairman of Wellmark Blue Cross/Blue Shield. The letter demands that the insurer drop its premiums. “Enough is enough. It’s time to put people before profits. It’s time to put patients first. Consider yourselves on notice.”

Enough is enough: where have I heard that before?



So we've doubled down on DEMANDS and (with minor variation) PUTTING PEOPLE FIRST. A couple months back I argued that one of the C's in CCI was for "Counterproductive." It seems the other one is for "Cliche." (Which I honor by reviving the five year old Snakes On A Plane meme.)



This is what democracy looks like.

Priceless Register line: "The letter doesn’t specify what will happen to the insurer if it ignores the notice." Some variation on Hey Hey Ho Ho, I would guess.

Just to make sure the humor impaired get it: by and large I think the goals here are good, but the tactics and ESPECIALLY the rhetorical style are nails on chalkboard to me. What do I want? New Slogans! When do I want them? Now!

Dad's Independent Wisdom

“When I was a boy of fourteen, my father was so ignorant I could hardly stand to have the old man around. But when I got to be twenty-one, I was astonished by how much he'd learned in seven years.” - Mark Twain

I found a coffee mug with this quote a while back on one of my weekend crawls around resale stores, and knew I had to get it for my dad. (Since my sons are tweens, maybe I should have kept it.)

I spent the long weekend at my parents' home in Wisconsin for an early Thanksgiving. Trips home are my escape from the political bubble of the People's Republic of Johnson County, my semi-annual reality check. Mom and Dad are my barometer of pure independents. And not apathetic independents, either. They're the journalist's idealized independents who "study the candidates" and often vote split tickets. And they're a shrinking part of the electorate.

A generation ago, maybe a quarter of the electorate was made up of swing voters. I'm basing that on low water marks for the major parties: Goldwater `64 and McGovern `72. Now that swing vote is probably 10 percent or less, so an LBJ or Reagan size landslide is no longer possible. Obama and his GOP opponent will each start next fall with about 45 percent of the national popular vote locked in.

Now, fair disclosure: my parents are retired teachers. Retired Wisconsin teachers. Gov. Scott Walker's anti-government employee agenda has steered Mom and Dad toward Democrats in general. They live in one of the two Senate districts that changed hands in the August recall elections. Before that, their vacant state House seat also flipped from R to D in a special election brought about when the incumbent resigned to take a key job in the Walker administration. (A dude I went to high school with, who is as annoying now as he was then.)

I warned my folks to expect nonstop phone calls stating today as the recall effort against Walker begins collecting signatures. But -- this is where exposition ends and substance finally begins -- they may not sign.

Dad argues: Democrats haven't got a candidate who can beat Walker and is willing to run. (Their first choice is former senator Russ Feingold, who they always supported.) "If they're not going to win anyway," says Dad, "why spend all that time and money?"

After watching the Badgers clobber the Gophers, we stumbled onto the first part of the Republican debate, which prompted another significant look at the independent mindset. It's the flipside of the Walker recall: lack of a candidate.

Dad: If the Republicans don't even like their own candidates and can't decide which one to pick, how do they expect to persuade someone like me?

Me: OK, Dad, let me ask you this. Last time, when the Democrats took forever to decide between Barack and Hillary, what did you think?

Dad: I think you liked both of them, and I think this year the Republicans don't like any of them.

So take heed, Republicans. Your lack of enthusiasm is being noticed and isn't playing well. My survey is highly unscientific and probably biased, but it's a different set of biases than my own, and the older I get, the smarter my parents seem.

Monday Catch-Up

I was mostly off the grid this weekend celebrating an early Thanksgiving in my native Wisconsin. A few items of note:

The yard signs appear to be down in Senate 18 but on the drive home we saw a large Cindy Golding billboard. Golding is still talking about a run next year in new Senate 48, but the other two contenders aren't stepping aside.

Craig Robinson looks at the post-Battle of Marion Senate GOP leadership fight. In my opinion Bill DIx emerges as a bigger loser than even McKinley, and Dix-faction senators are openly calling Jerry Behn's election more of the same. Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.

Also noted in Robinson's piece:

Republicans also elected a new minority whip. Senator Brad Zaun was selected to replace Senator Steve Kettering, who, like McKinley, stepped down and is also not seeking re-election in 2012.

First I'd heard of that. Kettering was fairly lucky in redistricting; Senate District 6 keeps four whole counties in a five-plus county seat. Buena Vista, Sac, and Carroll counties stay intact, and the eastern Crawford shunk is similar. The district adds tiny Audubon County and keeps a pretty similar solid GOP registration edge (2187 in April).

Also at TheIowaRepublican, Kevin Hall chides Gingrich:

Newt plans on opening offices in Des Moines and Iowa City (???) soon … A GOP campaign office in Iowa City makes about as much sense as Christie Vilsack opening a headquarters in Sioux Center. Or thinking she can beat Steve King.

Au contraire, my conservative colleague. The mistake with an Iowa City HQ isn't Iowa City per se. Johnson is one of the top 10 GOP counties in the state based on sheer number of registrations and voters, which is how Republicans count their caucus votes. (Democratic caucus results end up weighting the counties by size and party strength based on general election results.) Johnson is lousy for the GOP in terms of percentage, but even 20% of registration in a big metro county is quite a few.

But the mistake in an Iowa City effort is the timing. A January 3 date in a campus county is deadly. I'd have put the eastern Iowa office in the QC or Cedar Rapids. But then, it's not my job to give Newt advice.

Number Crunching University Heights

Someone needs to write a book, or at least a good long journal article, about the Battle Of University Heights. Development battles are always the nastiest fights in local politics, and in the surrounded west side enclave, an entire generation of Zoning War has been distilled into one lot. The Build It or Don't feud between neighbors was battled to a stalemate Tuesday, with a margin of two votes for the last seat.

Both sides in the fight over redevelopment of the St. Andrew Church property - in a supreme irony, the church is the city's polling place - had tightly organized, clear slates of candidates. The WeR4UH side opposes the One University Place plan; the U H Moving Forward side supports it.

Even though all five seats were up (UH is now the last city in the county with two year terms) both sides deliberately ran slates of just four candidates. The Votes Per Voter number - in a vote for more than one race, add up all votes then divide by number of voters - was 4.08, meaning (approximately) 92 percent of voters left a spot blank. The trend was even more pronounced for early voters; an amazing 96 percent only voted for four.

(The Votes Per Voter number is imprecise and just an estimate. Doesn't mean EXACTLY 8 percent voted for five, because some folks could have voted for three, two, even none. Donald Baxter proudly threw the stats off by 0.2% by declaring a pox on both houses, leaving the council race blank, and just voting for the library levy.)

All other things being equal, WeR4UH seems to have a 20 to 30 person edge in a maximized electorate - 60 percent turnout, just short of gubernatorial levels, for a third straight record breaking turnout. But all other things are not equal and the WeR4UH margin is less than the individual strengths and weaknesses of candidates. It was the tiny handful of ticket splitters, five vote voters, inadvertent mistakes, and other miscellany that decided the election - or, rather, produced an improbable split decision despite the polarization.

I call the sides "party" below but there was no simple way to vote a straight ticket. You had to know it to get it right, but a quick drive (or, for Donald, a bike ride) through town would make the task easy.

Candidate	"Party"	Polls	Absentee	Total
McGrath (I)	WeR4UH	141	145	286
Hopson (I)	WeR4UH	139	145	284
Leff (ex-ICCSD)	WeR4UH	135	141	276
Haverkamp (I)	U H Moving Forward	179	95	274
Lane (ex-appointee)	U H Moving Forward	171	98	269
Stewart	WeR4UH	128	139	267
Yeggy (I)	U H Moving Forward	161	89	250
Whitmer	U H Moving Forward	156	90	246

WeR4UH won the early vote (236) roughly 60-40, while U H Moving Forward carried the slightly larger election day vote (298) by a less precise margin.

The WeR4UH vote was slightly more solid, with a 19 vote gap between first place Brennan McGrath and sixth place Rachel Stewart. On the U H Moving Forward side there were 28 votes separating fourth place Mike Haverkamp from last place Amanda Whitmer. The absentees - more decisive, ready to vote NOW - were more solid for both sides than the election day voters.

On both sides, first time candidates ran the weakest. WeR4UH elected 2009 winner McGrath, January special election winner Rosanne Hopson, and Jan Leff, a well-known former school board member. (Her husband Al, who was also on the school board, narrowly lost the 2009 mayor's race.) The low vote getter for WeR4UH was newcomer Rachel Stewart.

U H Moving Forward re-elected Haverkamp and elected Jim Lane, who had briefly served on the council as an appointee before losing the special election to Hopson. (I spotted a handful of houses with Lane signs next to the WeR4UH sign, and just one or two of those was enough to make the difference.) Incumbent Pat Yeggy lost, and first time candidate Whitmer finished last - but with 46% and just 40 votes behind frontrunner McGrath.

Despite the division, UH residents agreed on one thing: the library levy was renewed with 79%.

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Two other cities set turnout records: Shueyville, with multiple write-in candidacies and a one vote margin, and Tiffin, where banker Steve Berner defeated incumbent mayor Royce Phillips.

I haven't had the heart to seriously number-crunch the Iowa City contests, though a short version of my wee hours of Wednesday post is in today's print Press-Citizen. One factoid: 28% of voters either skipped the Rick Dobyns-Steve Soboroff District A race or cast a write in. 43 percent did the same in District C, but that's not unusual in an uncontested race.

And little Aredale in Butler County, population 74, has shown up Iowa City by electing an 18 year old mayor.

Schueller To Try Comeback

Democrat Tom Schueller, one of 2010's unlikeliest victims, is on the comeback trail, seeking to regain the House District 58 legislative seat he lost last year to Brian Moore.

Schueller was unopposed in 2008, and looked to be unopposed again in 2010. But after losing a Democratic Senate primary to Tod Bowman, Moore switched parties, filed against Schueller, and rode the wave for a 138 vote shock win.

This was a pair-up on Map Day, but Republican freshman Lee Hein is moving to House 95 in a My District Just Not My Farm situation.

The old district was the most Democratic seat held by a Republican, with about the same 4000ish Democratic registration margin. But Moore, who lives right on the edge of the new turf, loses the pieces of northern Clinton County and southern Dubuque where he got his winning margin (Schueller won Jackson County by about 250) and instead gets eastern Jones County. It's a must-win for Democrats, and a tough hold for the GOP.

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Bleeding Heartland is looking to steal my District Of The Day crown and has a good look at open House District 28. Republican Rich Arnold is retiring and desmoinesdem, who earlier caught the candidacy of Democrat Megan Day Suhr, also sees that Republican Greg Heartsill, a "homeschool(er) with nine children," is in.

desmoinesdem notes:

Iowa House Democrats did not appear to be represented at the (Suhr kickoff) event, nor did I receive a press release about Suhr from the House Democrats. In contrast, the House Democrats publicized campaign announcements by Joe Riding in district 30, Rich Olive in district 48, Bill Heckroth in district 63, Art Staed in district 66, Daniel Lundby in district 68, Rachel Bly in district 76, Joe Judge in district 80, Sara Sedlacek in district 88, and Frank Wood in district 92.

And, as I write, the Schueller release from the House Dems hits my inbox. Suhr seems serious, but lists her profession as "doula," which loosely translates as midwife. My guess is that "doula" sounds kind of, how do I say this, Fairfield in Knoxville. Home birth vs. home school: House 28 sounds like quite the culture clash.