Heckroth on Comeback Trail

Heckroth on Comeback Trail

Call it a comeback: Former Senator Bill Heckroth, D-Waverly, is looking to return to the legislature next year, this time across the rotunda:

Long-time Waverly community leader and small business owner Bill Heckroth announced today that he will run for State Representative in the new House District 63. Heckroth already knows the people of Bremer County and northern Black Hawk County well after serving for four years in the Iowa Senate.

“A strong rural Iowa economy depends on thriving small businesses, a strong agricultural economy, and a skilled workforce ready for the jobs of the 21st Century,” said Heckroth, who owns Financial Architects in Waverly. "I will focus on those three key areas, while also keeping the state's fiscal house in order."

In addition to operating his business, Heckroth is a member of the Waverly Rotary club and the Knights of Columbus. Since moving to Waverly in 1987, he has also been active in leadership rolls with the Waverly-Shell Rock High School Booster Club, United Way of Waverly-Shell Rock, the Waverly Parks and Recreation Board, St. Mary’s Catholic Church Parish Council, and the Bartels Lutheran Retirement Community Board of Directors and Strategic Planning Committee and several other organizations.

“I have always appreciated the many opportunities I have had over the years to actively serve our community and our State. This is one more way that I can take an active leadership role to help make our state a great place to live, work, and raise a family,” said Heckroth. "I am extremely excited about this opportunity!"

Bill was raised in Dysart, a farming community just south of Waterloo and is a graduate of the University of Iowa where he earned his Financial Management degree and played baseball for the Hawkeyes. He is married to Jan Heckroth, who is a chaplain in a Waterloo hospital, and they have three grown sons.

New House 63 has no incumbent. It's Bremer County and the northern tier of Black Hawk; up to the Waterloo city limits and including Dunkerton.

New House 63 is not the best Democratic turf, with a GOP registration edge of 1170. But that's a smidge better than Heckroth's old Senate district, and he's probably the strongest candidate Democrats could hope for. The new turf was almost entirely in his old Senate seat.

Heckroth won a hard-fought 2006 race when Republican Bob Brunkhorst stepped down. But he lost a high-spending race last year to Bill Dix, himself making a comeback after four years out.

Saturday Stuff

Saturday Stuff: Legislative Forum, Hall of Fame Dems

Sorry to those who think my new All Redistricting All The Time format is, quote, "boring." So to mix it up I'p plugging a couple weekend political events.

Saturday afternoon from 1 to 3 will see the last Leauge of Women Voters forum of the legislative session (no matter how long the session actually lasts). Check your map, check your new legislators, see who's there. That's at the Iowa City library.

Saturday night the Johnson County Democrats are re-launching their annual (we've skipped a few years) Hall of Fame event. That'll be at the Coralville Marriott, Salon C. 7:00 for socializing, 7:30 for the program.

The guests of honor are Dick and Doris Myers, Ralph and Arlene Neuzil, and Jae Retz and Roberta Till-Retz. We'll take your money, sure ($25 would be nice) but we want you there.

District of the Day: Senate District 10, House District 19 and 20

District of the Day: Senate District 10, House District 19 and 20

Senate District 10

Registration: D 10,600, R 14,225, N 15,514, total 40,363, R+ 3625
No Incumbent

Dallas County was the fastest growing part of the state last decade, and they've outgrown sharing a Senate district with Boone and Republican Jerry Behn. This decade, most of Dallas anchors a new seat, adding Guthrie and Adair counties and a small chunk of Cass out of Nancy Boettger's old district. (As noted yesterday and many times before, she's committed to staying where she is.)

This turf is likely to be Ground Zero for the epic Boswell-Latham battle, so Democrats will need a serious effort even if the numbers aren't great. I'd bet on a hot, maybe multi-cornered, GOP primary, which could produce an extreme candidate and a Democratic opportunity (see that House seat in Carroll for a recent example).

UPDATE May 31: First announced candidate is Jake Chapman of Adel, businessman and president of the Dallas County Young Republicans. Also noted in the comments: Brenna Findley, the GOP's 2010 nominee for attorney general, also lives in these parts.

The two House incumbents seem a bit senior, rural and old to be looking at a move to the Senate, though one is representing a Senate-sized district already.

House District 19

Registration: D 5059, R 7324, N 7944, total 20340, R+ 2265
Incumbent: Ralph Watts, R-Adel

Watts, 66, went to the house in 2002 when old House 47 was created. He may have had the biggest population House district in the state by decade's end. He loses Waukee and the Dallas County parts of West Des Moines and Clive; together that makes up a whole new House District, the open 44.

Watts keeps Dallas Center, Adel, and Woodward, adds Dexter and Redfield, and loses a township here and there (including a couple in Boone County.) He also picks up a little corner of Polk, north of the Saylorville Reservoir and including Polk City, from Kevin Koester's overpopulated district. The end result of all this demographic and geographic change is a loss of 2000 Republicans for Watts. In the old lines he won with 60% in 2008 and 67% in 2010.

House District 20

Registration: D 5541, R 6901, N 7570, total 20023, R+ 1360
Incumbent: Clel Baudler, R-Greenfield

I'm still trying to figure out why Clel Baudler voted no on the map. He wasn't paired or obviously hurt like the other no voters. He loses about 600 Republicans from the old district, but still has a good edge. He keeps the core of his old district 58, all of Guthrie and Adair counties and a similar corner of Cass, which is pretty good considering the growth just to the east in Dallas. He was unopposed in 2006, won with 58% in 2008, and beat an independent in 2010.

Maybe he was upset about losing Audubon County to Dan Muhlbauer, or picking up Perry from the Boone-based district. Maybe he was unhappy that Nancy Boettger got burned in the Senate map.

Maybe he was smoking his duly prescribed medical marijuana. Or maybe his clerk pushed the wrong button.

Anyway, if the 72 year old Baudler, first elected in 1998, is really annoyed with the map he could just call it quits.

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District of the Day: Senate District 9, House District 17 and 18

District of the Day: Senate District 9, House District 17 and 18

Senate District 9

Registration: D 11268, R 14356, N 13689, total 39330, R+ 3088
Incumbents: Nancy Boettger, R-Harlan and James Seymour, R-Woodbine UPDATE January 11: Seymour retiring.

Boettger has had uneventful contests since she was first elected in 1994, with no opposition at all in 2006 and 2010 in old district 29.

Seymour has had a, well, more interesting history. His old seat, Senate 28, was empty in 2002 so it had a two year race; he won with 49 percent in a three-corner contest. Anyone know the deal there? He's been unopposed since, which was really lucky in 2008, when late in the cycle news surfaced of a 2002 arrest for soliciting prostitution. One of the reasons a party needs a candidate in every district; write-ins got 11%.

Enough of the dirt. Let's look at the lines. The new turf is mostly Seymour's: Harrison, Monona, Ida, most of Crawford, and some leftover rural bits of east Woodbury (which shift a little). It loses some bits of rural Pottawattamie and adds Boettger's home county, Shelby, and nothing else from her current district, though she had Harrison back in the 1990s. Boettger's 2000s district ran south and east into Audubon, Guthrie, Cass and Adair.

Guthrie and Adair are placed with much of Dallas County in an open, Republican friendly district 10. But Boettger lives on a family farm with a bed and breakfast, and has firmly said from Map Day on that she's not moving.

Neither Boettger or Seymour have had a contested test with the voters in ten years. Boettger's likely betting that, if it comes to it, she could take him in a primary on his turf. As for my bet, it's for a retirement, quiet or with party pressure, from Seymour. Boettger would then hold over till 2014.

The district's two House members aren't paired, and don't have to move, but both will need to get to know some new constituents.

House District 17

Registration: D 5778, R 7536, N 6958, total 20283, R+ 1758
Incumbent: Matt Windschitl, R-Missouri Valley

The Legislature's leading advocate for a gun hidden in every pocket, Windschitl won the seat by knocking off Paul Wilderdyke in a 2006 primary challenge from the right. He easily shot down (heh) a couple Democratic challenges, then went unopposed in 2010.

Windschitl gets a lot of different turf but gains a few hundred Republicans. The old seat had all of Harrison County, most of Monona, and a little of rural north Pottawattamie. This map, he loses all of PottCo and eastern Harrison, but gets all of Monona. He also picks up parts of rural Woodbury and all of Ida, and about 600 Republicans, from the guy in our next district...

House District 18

Registration: D 5490, R 6820, N 6731, total 19047, R+ 1330

Incumbent: Jason Schultz, R-Schleswig

Schultz won the seat in a contested 2008 primary, where he was seen as the more conservative candidate. (Incumbent Clarence Hoffman had been squeezed out by Iowas For Tax Relief.) Democrats have not bothered to oppose Schultz either term. The district is centered on Denison and western Crawford County. It used to go north into Ida, now it goes south and gets all of Shelby County. The line changes cost Schultz about 300 Republicans.


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District of the Day: Senate District 8, House District 15 and 16

District of the Day: Senate District 8, House District 15 and 16



Senate District 8

Registration: D 11,461, R 9,589, N 11,141, total 32,225, D + 1872
Incumbent: Mike Gronstal, D-Council Bluffs

Nobody, nobody, nobody hates this map more than the Pottawattamie County Republicans. They're drawn out of Steve King's district, the two Council Bluffs GOP House members get paired, and the empty district is solidly Democratic.

But worst of all, their nemesis, Senator Mike Gronstal, the only man standing in the way of Total Republican Trifecta Dominance in Iowa, gets the least changed district in the state. Barring some minor annexation that doesn't show at the scale of the maps, it looks to be exactly, yes, EXACTLY the same. The rules say to keep cities together when you can, and Council Bluffs plus Carter Lake just happens to be the right size and just happened to grow at the right pace.

Republicans would love to have connected Mike's house to the vast angry mobs of nearby Republicans. Gronstal lives in the new House District 16 half of his Senate turf, the generally southern part of town which has a very slim Republican registration edge.

"Even using these squeaky clean Iowa districts, it's easy to see how you could screw Gronstal," said redistricting consultant Jerry Mandering. "You just switch the House districts around."

"All I gotta do is take a little piece of Lewis Township south of Council Bluffs to use for connective tissue," said Mandering, a wicked gleam in his eye as he said "connective tissue."

"That ain't even nuthin' creative like a median strip or a piece of Nebraska. Then I connect Mikey up with House 23 into Fremont, Mills and Montgomery," said Mandering. "And bada-BING! That puts him with that new Republican gal Joni Ernst who took over for Kim Reynolds, and gives him 5224 more R's than D's. It's nuthin' personal, Mikey, it's strictly business."

"Then I take the north side of Council Bluffs and put it with House 22 in eastern Pottawattamie," said Mandering. "That only gives you 2149 more Republicans than Democrats, but ole Hubert Houser can handle that. Then I take the leftovers in House 21 and 24 and I got an empty seat with a 9000 vote Republican edge. Maybe I'd move some stuff around to make Ernst happy or make things better for Hubert, but there's nuthin' but Republicans to move around."

"But instead House 16 gets put with House 15, which has 2000 more Democrats than Republicans. Every freakin' Democrat in ten counties is in Gronstal's district. You couldn't get him better turf if you were trying."

Mandering paused, considering the implications of his words.

"Guess that makes me kind of useless, huh."

That it does, Jerry. But whatever the lines, Gronstal is GOP Target One.

UPDATE May 25: Reg reports one possible GOP candidate is retired Air Force general Al Ringgenberg, who lives “a few hundred yards” outside the district for now.

House District 15

Registration: D 6175, R 4075, N 5725, total 15991, D+ 2100
No Incumbent

House District 16

Registration: D 5286, R 5514, N 5416, total 16234, R+ 228
Incumbents: Mark Brandenburg and Mary Ann Hanusa, both R-Council Bluffs

UPDATE July 20: Hanusa staying in 16...

UPDATE February 2: Brandenburg moving to 15.

As in Sioux City, we have two freshmen in one district and one district empty. The difference is here, both are Republicans. Hanusa, the last second replacement nominee for secretary of state in 2006, beat Democrat Kurt Hubler in old House 99 to hold a relatively even open seat for the Republicans. (Her predecessor, Doug Struyk, is infamous for his party change from D to R right at the 2004 filing deadline; he's now in the Matt Schultz administration.) Brandenburg, a former school board member coming off a 58-42 loss to Gronstal in 2008, knocked off Democrat Paul Shomshor in Democratic leaning old 100. He's had health problems his first session.

Hanusa and Brandenburg were both unhappy enough to vote no on the map, though they said it was because of the congressional lines.

The new line across Council Bluffs puts all of the city's best Democratic precincts into 15, on the northern and western part of town and including that wonderful geographic quirk Carter Lake. New 16 leans slightly Republican, and sees higher turnout in the GOP precincts, but is definitely winnable in the right year. (That task is harder as Pottawattamie is historically one of the lowest percentage turnout parts of the state.) The logical move here would be for someone to take on Gronstal. But Pottawattamie Republicans would probably like to run a strong candidate like an incumbent in the tougher district.


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District of the Day: Senate District 7, House District 13 and 14

District of the Day: Senate District 7, House District 13 and 14

Senate District 7

Registration: D 11452, R 8628, N 9970, total 30094, D+ 2824
Incumbent: Rick Bertrand, R-Sioux City

It's an all-freshman delegation in the core Sioux City districts, where five legislators retired last year. Not much change in the lines, but what change there is pairs two legislators and could prompt some counter-intuitive moving.

Republican Rick Bertrand lost a close `08 House race to Democrat Roger Wendt. He switched to the Senate race when Democrat Steve Warnstadt retired in 2010, and beat Democratic activist Rick Mullin by just 222 votes.

The new district changes little: a slight line shift on the south, picking up two precincts and a rural township added on the east, but the party balance stays almost identical.

Bertrand's fate may depend on the cycle, but with an odd numbered seat he gets the lower turnout gubernatorial year, and Woodbury is historically a low turnout county.

House District 13

Registration: D 5494, R 4646, N 5097, total 15260, D+ 848

Incumbents: Chris Hall, D-Sioux City; Jeremy Taylor, R-Sioux City

UPDATE December 1: The two incumbents will face off.

House District 14

Registration: D 5958, R 3982, N 4873, total 14834, D+ 1976
No Incumbent

The new map splits Sioux City into roughly the same three districts - east, west, and south - as 2001, with the line between east and west shifting. But the shifts place Republican Jeremy Taylor, who had been west of the line, east of the line and paired with Democrat Chris Hall. Both new seats lean Democratic, the west side's 14 more so, and both legislators won by similar, 600ish vote margins in 2010.

Taylor looked like a winner for a few hours on Election Night 2008, until absentees put him 280 votes short of Wes Whitead in old House District 2. He came back to take the seat in 2010. That district had a Democratic registration edge of 1664.

Hall took over when Wendt retired in ill health (he passed away in late March this year). Hall beat Republican Cate Bryan, who had won a high-spending, recount-close primary.

So who goes where? Basically, Republican Taylor has been drawn into Democrat Hall's district. Only one precinct moved, and it was Taylor's. But the empty district, with more of Taylor's old turf, has more Democrats. If 14 stays empty, a couple of 2010 candidates could try again: David Dawson, Taylor's opponent, or Rick Mullin, who started `10 in a house race until Steve Warnstadt announced his retirement.

UPDATE November 18: Dawson is in.

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District of the Day: Senate District 6, House District 11 and 12

District of the Day: Senate District 6, House District 11 and 12

Senate District 6

Registration: D 11,206, R 13,393, N 16,263, total 40,887, R+ 2187
Incumbent: Steve Kettering, R-Lake View

Kettering got screwed last redistricting, yet ended up getting a promotion. He was in the House, got paired up with Rod Roberts, and drew the short straw, not running in 2002. But serendipitously for him, mid-term state senator Steve King emerged as the congressional nominee in that year's epic four-way primary and convention battle. Kettering won the January 2003 special for King's seat and barely missed a day of session. Elections have been uneventful since.

Redistricting is much kinder to Kettering this time, as he may have the least-changed rural district in the state. Kettering keeps almost all his old territory. Buena Vista, Sac, and Carroll counties stay intact and stay in the district, and he also has pretty much the same chunk of eastern Crawford. He adds tiny Audubon County and keeps a pretty similar solid GOP registration edge.

The House lines change a bit within the Senate district, to the benefit of the two opposite-party incumbents.

House District 11

Registration: D 4650, R 7332, N 7700, total 19,690, R+ 2682
Incumbent: Gary Worthan, R-Storm Lake

Worthan was another special election winner, but the most interesting part of that was the reason. Mary Lou Freeman, who was running for re-election unopposed, died after the withdrawal deadline. (Technically she was not re-elected posthumously; the contest was simply not counted.) Worthan won the special, just a month after the 2006 general election. He won with 66% in 2008 and 74% last year. In the new map he gains a chunk of Sac and about 500 Republicans, to give him some of the cleanest House lines in the state: exactly Sac and Buena Vista counties, no more, no less.

House District 12

Registration: D 6556, R 6061, N 8563, total 21197, D+ 495
Incumbent: Dan Muhlbauer, D-Manning

One of the very few bright spots for Democrats in 2010. Rod Roberts gave up the Carroll-based seat to run for governor, and Republicans nominated their own Sharron Angle, Daniel Dirkx (dubbed "the worst candidate ever" by desmoinesdem). This was too much even for the tea party mood of the cycle. Leading Republicans in Carroll endorsed the late starting Democrat, Dan Muhlbauer (the original nominee dropped out), who won a solid 1900 vote win for the only Democratic gain of the cycle. Muhlbauer, a former county supervisor whose father preceded him in the legislature, has carved a cautious course, defecting from the party on a few hign profile votes like nuclear power and marriage equality.

The line changes turn a 195 Republican registration edge into a 495 voter advantage to the Democrats. Still swingy, but better. Carroll County still dominates the district. Muhlbauer also keeps a more or less the same chunk of a few townships in western Crawford, up to but not including Denison. He drops the small piece of Sac (which he lost to Dirkx) to Worthan and instead gets all of Audubon County.


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Dis-Unity on Linux Monday

Dis-Unity on Linux Monday

We just finished April, and that means a new release for #1 Linux distribution Ubuntu. Big changes mean some controversy with the new version, 11.04 or "Natty Narwhal."

The Ubuntu team has moved away from its longtime desktop interface, GNOME, and gone to the more netbooky "Unity" interface. Some users are finding, on install or upgrade, that Unity is too resource demanding and are advised to use GNOME (called "Ubuntu Classic" in the interface). But that's only a temporary fix since Ubuntu's planning on moving completely out of GNOME in the October upgrade ("Oneiric Ocelot") Another workaround is to disable some video effects and use Unity.

GNOME, meanwhile, is moving into a new 3.0 version, with the assorted growing pains of any launch but some early praise.

As for me, multiple choice is one of the great things about Linux. You're not locked into one desktop interface like you are in Windows with Explorer (that thing that you sometimes disable in Task Manager when IE locks up, and then you wonder why you have nothing on your screen but your wallpaper). There are literally dozens of choices for GUI desktops. (Of course, the purists scoff and use the command line.)

In anticipation of the GNOME vs. Unity battle, I declared a pox on both houses and switched over to low-resource desktop Fluxbox before the launch of the Narwhal. I don't care about eye candy and now that I've learned to edit the menus, all is well. I played with Unity for a few minutes to see what all the fuss was about, then uninstalled it. No need to learn a THIRD desktop.

My own actual upgrade had a bump in the road with the video driver that required a boot from a CD and a little Googling for a driver. I really haven't seen much change... but then, I'm not really using the stuff that changed.

bin Laden Dead

bin Laden Dead

Now bring the troops home.

Joe Judge Announces in House 80

Joe Judge Announces in House 80

The first family of Monroe County Democratic politics may be sending its third member to the legislature. Former county chair Joe Judge has announced in open House District 80.

Judge, a 33 year old teacher, is the son of former Lt. Gov. Patty Judge and former Sen. John Judge (who succeeded Patty in the Senate when she became Secretary of Agriculture). He announced his candidacy Sunday on line (hat tip to Newton Rep. Dan Kelley) and at a party fundraiser in Centerville.

"I am very excited to begin this campaign and talk about the issues that affect Appanoose, Monroe, Wapello, and Mahaska counties," said Judge on Facebook. "I will need a lot of help so if you are willing to join our campaign, please let me know."

The district includes all of Appanoose and Monroe Counties, western Wapello and eastern Mahaska; it comes up to the city limits of Ottumwa and Oskalooosa but includes neither. The seat has a near even party split, with Democrats holding a registration edge of 97 voters. It lies next to three districts with paired-up representatives: Republicans Jarad Klein and Betty DeBoef in 78, and Republicans Jim Van Engelenhoeven and Guy Vander Linden in 79. So if someone moves in, Judge may find himself faced with an incumbent, but none of the possible moves seem like quite the right fit. (The third pair has been resolved: Bloomfield Democrat Kurt Swaim is not running in 82 and Curt Hanson, D-Fairfield, is.) In the old map, Appanoose was in Swaim's district, while Monroe went west into Republican Rich Arnold's turf.

Stutsman Announces in House 77

Stutsman Announces in House 77

It was hinted last week, now official:

Johnson County Supervisor Sally Stutsman has announced plans to run for the Iowa House in an open district in the western part of the county.

The 2011 redistricting process created a new district, House 77, that includes the area where Stutsman has lived since 1969.

As strong a candidate as Democrats could hope for, in a district with a 2500 voter Democratic registration edge.

The district is entirely in Johnson, our fourth complete district. It's anchored by North Liberty and Tiffin, which grew so big they had to be pulled out of Dave Jacoby's Coralville district. It's also got Swisher, Shueyville, Oxford, Tiffin, Frytown, and Lone Tree, but wraps around the city of Hills. Most of those were pulled out of Nate Willems and Jarad Klein's seats, that used to go into Johnson but no longer do. One township comes out of Jeff Kaufmann's district.

Last year Stutsman was the first supervisor to be elected to a fifth term since terms went to four years in the 1970s. She tried for the House once before, in a much tougher district that went into Louisa and Muscatine, in 2000. (She did way better than the Some Dude who ran four years earlier.)

District of the Day: Senate District 5, House District 9 and 10

District of the Day: Senate District 5, House District 9 and 10



Senate District 5

Registration: D 12,744, R 12,705, N 15,365, total 40,846, D+ 39
Incumbent: Daryl Beall, D-Ft. Dodge

Beall won a third term last year in old district 25 with 54%. Beall loses about 900 Democrats and gets a dead-even district that votes on the lower turnout gubernatorial cycle. The new seat keeps Ft. Dodge and Calhoun County but loses Greene County to the south and instead goes go north into Pocahontas and Humboldt. Beall has till 2014 to get to know those new constituents.

The Senate district is polarized between a Democratic half and an equally GOP part.

House District 9

Registration: D 7625, R 5253, N 6484, total 19378, D+ 2372
Incumbent: Helen Miller, D-Ft. Dodge

Update September 11: Alcazar running again.

Very little change for Miller in the district she's held since 2002. She keeps her entire old district and adds three townships to maintain roughly the same Democratic edge. This is one of those ones where the district lines practically draw themselves. An ideal House district size is 30,538, and the Ft. Dodge census population is 25,206.

Miller won with a surprisingly close 52% last time against Matt Alcazar, a tea partier opponent who had started out running as an independent. Speaking of tea partiers who started out running as independents...

House District 10

Registration: D 5119, R 7452, N 8881, total 21468, R+ 2333
Incumbents: Tom Shaw, R-Laurens, and Dave Tjepkes, R-Gowrie January 10: Tjepkes retires.

Tom Shaw, who first announced his 2010 run as an independent, won an epic primary and then took over with ease in the general as conservaDem Dolores Mertz retired. Shaw, age 49, has taken the hard-right approach along with fellow freshmen Glen Massie and Kim Pearson: uber-purist on abortion, joining the late session Supreme Court impeachment effort. He keeps his native Pocahontas County and Humboldt, but loses the city of Algona and southern Kossuth.

Tjepkes, age 67, hails from Gowrie in rural Webster County. He first won old district 50 in the last year lines were redone, 2002. He keeps Calhoun County but loses all of Greene County, which instead goes with Boone County into freshman Republican Chip Baltimore's seat. Tjepkes was was a 64% winner in 2008 and unopposed in 2010.

Tjepkes took the opposite approach to Shaw on marriage equality, as one of four House Republicans who did not co-sponsor the constitutional amendment (though he, along with all Republicans and sadly three Democrats, ended up voting for it). This had some folks talking primary challenge even before the map came out.

The two paired incumbents are from opposite corners of the district. The new seat is more Republican than either of the old seats. With the Senate seat on the odd cycle, a run at Beall is only an option if one of the two House members stands down for two years. Tjepkes could go east into new 48, where technically Democrat Lisa Heddens lives (but she's expected to go with most of her voters in the open 46 in Ames), but there's very little overlap with the old Tjepkes turf and it's a swing seat.

Shaw could go north a couple miles into the open district 2, but there's no overlap at all with his old turf and, while it's a good GOP district, the new one he's in is better. Shaw didn't back down from a contested primary last time, and the tea party favorite beat Stephen Richards, the main-chance doctor who had fallen only 42 votes short of Mertz in 2008.

On Map Day, Tjepkes said he was inclined to run, while Shaw declined comment. desmoinesdem bets on party establishment support leading to a Tjepkes primary win, but in a GOP primary my money is always on the crazy.

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District of the Day: Senate District 4, House District 7 and 8

District of the Day: Senate District 4, House District 7 and 8



Senate District 4

Registration: D 11,890, R 14,602, N 15,880, total 42,381, R+ 2712
No Incumbent

Five whole counties- Emmett, Kossuth, Winnebago, Hancock and Wright-with no senators. This turf was split between Jack Kibbie, Merlin Bartz, and Rob Bacon in the old map. No one county dominates geographically as all are of similar size, between 10,000 and 16,000 population in a 61,000 body district. That's a lot of parades.

Last year Bacon knocked off Democrat Rich Olive, who won in 2006 when Stew Iverson quit his re-elect race after being deposed as Senate Republican leader. Iverson, of course, made a comeback last year when he defeated Six Pack Democrat McKinley Bailey in a Wright-Hamilton district.

Iverson is part of the triple-up in House 8 (see below) which is partially resolved by his likely run in this seat. There's not a lot of overlap between new senate 4 and the old Senate 5 that he held. Wright is the south end of the new seat that borders Minnesota. The old one went south from Wright instead, through Hamilton, wrapped around Ames to take in most of geographic Story, and ended way down at the Polk County line. The old seat was a few hundred voters more Republican, but Olive still managed to squeak through by 61 votes in a Democratic landslide year.

House District 7

Registration: D 6526, R 6405, N 8514, total 21,450, D+ 121
Incumbent: John Wittneben, D-Estherville

Day Four and finally our first House Democrat. Wittneben was one of the D's few bright spots in 2010, holding an open lean-Democratic district by just 32 votes when Marcy Frevert retired. But the new district loses 1200 Democrats to become a swing seat. Wittneben loses the Frevert base of Palo Alto but keeps his own Emmet County base and rural north Kossuth. But significantly, he adds the city of Algona.

House District 8

Registration: D 5364, R 8197, N 7366, total 20931, R+ 2833

Incumbents: Linda Upmeyer, R-Garner, Stew Iverson, R-Clarion, and Henry Rayhons, R-Garner

UPDATE July 14: Upmeyer officially announces move to House 54.

UPDATE August 10: Rayhons staying and running.

For a few hours on March 31, it looked like this was the seat that could have scuttled the whole plan. With Upmeyer and Rayhons both carrying Garner addresses, it would have been hard for the map geeks to keep them apart; Iverson was just one more wrench in the works.

Early reports were that Upmeyer would be the one who stayed, but now it seems she's looking at open House 54 to the north. Rayhons is 75 and was pegged as a retirement, but if Upmeyer does move he could stick around. Iowa Politics offered a good summary on April 20:

Upmeyer has said she might move from her longtime farm in Garner to a condominium in the Clear Lake area. But if she doesn’t, Rayhons said he’ll retire instead of running against his fellow Republican.

“It’s going to all depend on what Representative Upmeyer does,” Rayhons told IowaPolitics.com. “I would guess that I would probably run for that House seat if Representative Upmeyer decides to move. However, I will not interject if Representative Upmeyer stays where she is and wants the seat. I would quit the Legislature, probably.”

As for Iverson, speculation is that he might run for a state Senate seat that’s vacant due to redistricting. Iverson is a former Senate majority leader. However, he said Tuesday that he hadn’t made up his mind on his political future.

“I have absolutely made no decisions yet,” Iverson said. “The House district looks pretty good. The Senate district looks pretty good. There happens to be three Republicans in the House district. Representative Upmeyer, Representative Rayhons and I have not sat down. We have not talked about anything. I have to tell you, I’ve made no decisions yet whatsoever, and I probably won’t make a decision until next fall.”

However, Iverson is sure about one thing.

“I am not moving,” he said.

If Upmeyer stays she gets a slightly more Republican district. She'd lose Winnebago and Worth to the north and east. This seat instead goes south to Iverson's Wright County base and gets southern and western Kossuth, but not the city of Algona.

Rayhon's old turf went to the east in Franklin and picked up the Clear Lake part of Cerro Gordo, which is specifically where Upmeyer is taking about moving. Open House 54 could also have been the escape route for Annette Sweeney, who drew the short straw in the pair with Pat Grassley. But it's starting to look like she drew the short straw here, too.

New Map | New Map (Insets) | Old Map

Democrat Johnson announces in House 73

Democrat Johnson announces in House 73

Other names are in the rumor mill, but the first Democratic candidate has officially announced in House District 73.

The West Branch Times reports that West Branch city council member David Johnson is seeking the Democratic nomination to face Rep. Jeff Kaufmann, R-Wilton.

Johnson said he plans to run on “a conglomeration of issues ranging from the lack of funding for our institutions of higher education as well as K-12 and preschool, the need for tax increment finance reform, reform in the regulation of our utilities, corporate income tax reform as well as eliminating corporate welfare at all levels.”

The Cedar County based House District 73 (numbered 79 in the old map) changes significantly. It loses most of northern Muscatine County, except for the city of Wilton. It also takes in a much larger part of eastern Johnson County, including the city of Solon.

The changes give the new district a Democratic voter registration edge of 800. Kaufmann's old district was almost exactly evenly split between the parties. Johnson toldthe West Branch paper:

“Jeff will be a formidable candidate, even with the redistricting,” Johnson said. “But I believe that by starting my ground campaign this summer, I will be able to have sufficient one-on-one contact with my constituents to give the voters a sense of who I am, and what I intend to do. Constituents need to have a real connection and accessibility to their representatives. I intend to give them that. There is no doubt that a lot of voters see Jeff as having a pleasant personality, so the task for me will be to run against his record.”

If he's elected it could be confusing: there's already a David Johnson in the Legislature, Senator David Johnson of Ocheyedan (who was featured in our first District Of The Day).

Update: Blog for Iowa's Paul Deaton (who lives in the district) notes: "Two others are mulling a run in HD73. Informal Meetup of HD 73 Dems Thursday April 28 7PM Agave Restaurant West Branch all Democrats welcome."

Florida: "We Want To Be Fifth"

Florida: "We Want To Be Fifth"

Officially, the 2012 Iowa caucuses are still scheduled for Monday. February 6.

Unofficially, no one actually believes this, as the quadrennial game of date leapfrog is well underway, with Florida Republicans leading the charge.

In a rare bit of bipartisanship, Democrats and Republicans are in agreement on the nomination calendar. Both parties have the same four early states: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carlina and Nevada. Both parties have the same calendar: early states in February. other states starting in March. That said, Florida Republicans are making a stand:

Though the national party is pressuring Florida to delay its primary until next April, Republican Party of Florida chairman Dave Bitner made it clear Florida has no intention of moving back to the pack and sharing its primary date with other states again.

For decades, Florida voted in mid-March or April, long after the GOP nominees had been decided in smaller states' primaries. Now, Bitner said Florida deserves a bigger role because of its status as a key swing state in the general election.

"We want to go fifth," Bitner told more than 100 Republicans at a fundraiser Thursday night. "We don't care about being first, second, third or fourth. Let those other states that have had that have it. We just want to be fifth."

Whole article a must read for any caucus junkie.

In order to facilitate We Want To Go Fifth, "the Florida House passed an elections reform package that includes a 10-member commission that would wait until Oct. 1 to select a primary date for Florida between the first Tuesday in January and the first Tuesday in March." That would probably set up a ripple effect, pushing South Carolina and Nevada earlier, and thus pushing New Hampshire and Iowa earlier.

Republicans control both legislative houses and the governorship in Florida, so Democrats will get dragged along. But Florida Republicans need to be careful - they've already been given the plum of the GOP national convention, in Tampa. Party chair Reince Priebus says the convention won't be moved, but my guess is there will be some serious negotiating going on.

Anyone ready to caucus January 9? How about January 2?

District of the Day: Senate District 3, House District 5 and 6

District of the Day: Senate District 3, House District 5 and 6



The last time a Democrat was seen in Le Mars: Senator Obama gets some Blue Bunny.

Senate District 3

Registration: D 9848, R 15,607, N 13,790, total 39,274, R+ 5759
Incumbent: Bill Anderson, R-Pierson

It's a common theme in legislative politics: people who lose leadership fights tend to retire soon after. Sioux City Republican Ron Weick was Senate minority leader for one session in 2008, but got overthrown soon after the election by Paul McKinley.

Adding to the indignity, when Weick retired in 2010, his chosen successor was pushed out of the race by ex-King/Grassley staffer Bill Anderson, who went on to a relatively easy general election win in old district 27.

The old seat included the southern end of Sioux City and Sergeant Bluff as half the district, then went northeast to Cherokee County (the old Dan Huseman house seat). Anderson's new seat keeps south Sioux City, but then wraps around the rest of the city to pick up most of Plymouth County. As a result the seat gets a little more Republican. Anderson holds over till 2014.



House District 5

Registration: D 4426, R 8975, N 7421, total 20837, R+ 4549
Incumbent: Chuck Soderberg, R-Le Mars

Soderberg, 53, first went to the house in 2004 from old district 3 when Ralph Klemme retired, with a solid primary win and no general election opponent. Soderberg got a 2008 challenge by self-starter Democrat T.J. Templeton, who wasted a little on-line money and lost by more than three to one. No one bothered in 2010.

Soderberg (seen yesterday floor-managing the nuclear power plant bill) loses southern Sioux County, and Orange City, to Dwayne Alons, and instead gets rural parts of north and west Woodbury. He loses more than 2000 Republicans as a result, but the seat is still solid red.

House District 6

Registration: D 5422, R 6632, N 6369, total 18437, R+ 1210
Incumbent: Ron Jorgensen, R-Sioux City

What was I saying about overthrown legislative leaders stepping down? After Kraig Paulsen ousted Christopher Rants as Republican House leader, Rants left, with a brief stab at a run for governor on the way out.

Our first district that's basically urban, this was the Rants seat till last year when Jorgensen took over old district 54, defeating `08 Rants opponent Carlos Venable-Ridley with relative ease. Jorgensen, 53, keeps roughly the same south chunk of Sioux City (the line moves a few blocks south in places) and gains a few rural townships and along with them a few hundred Republicans.


New Map | New Map (Insets) | Old Map

District of the Day: Senate District 2, House District 3 and 4

District of the Day: Senate District 2, House District 3 and 4



Sioux County is so Republican that, had it been annexed to South Dakota in 2004, John Kerry would have won a 98 county Iowa. The only threat to Republicans up here is a primary or redistricting, and indeed the GOP has a problem with a pair in this neighborhood.

Senate District 2

Registration: D 5419, R 23,119, N 9904, total 38,450, R+ 17,700 (!)
Incumbent: Randy Feenstra, R-Hull

Sioux County dominates new District 2, the most Republican seat in the state, much as it dominated old 2. Unbelievably, old 2 was even MORE Republican. The district loses Lyon to the north and most of Plymouth (the LeMars part) to the south, and instead gets O'Brien and Cherokee to the east, plus the eastern part of Plymouth (which it didn't have before).

Old Senate District 2 was the scene of an epic primary in 2004 as relative moderate Dave Mulder knocked off the state's leading queer-baiter of the era, Ken Veenstra. Mulder stepped down after one term, semi-voluntarily (another epic primary was likely), and Feenstra moved from the county courthouse to the Senate in 2008 with no opponent in the primary OR the general.

House District 3

Registration: D 3890, R 10,102, N 6837, total 20,833, R+ 6212
Incumbents: Royd Chambers, R-Sheldon and Dan Huseman, R-Aurelia

New House 3 is basically Chambers' O'Brien County (population 14,398) and Huseman's Cherokee (12,072), with a few townships in eastern Sioux and Plymouth thrown in.

Chambers' old district 5 went north to Osceola County, picked up western Sioux, and included most of the land of Clay County (wrapping around to exclude the city of Spencer). He went unopposed the last two cycles and was one of the seven no votes on the map.

Huseman's old district 53 went south and east to the Sioux City limits and included southern and eastern Plymouth. He was held to 58% by a Democrat in 2008, but went unopposed last cycle.

This reminds me a lot of the Rick Larkin-Phil Wise pair of 2002: Two incumbents with relatively equal geographic bases, in a corner of the state which leaves little room to move, and on safe turf for the party. Both members are relatively young (Chambers 49, Huseman 58) but Huseman had a heart attack April 9 and has been away from the Capitol since.

Chambers discussed the pairing with KTIV-TV:

Representatives Royd Chambers and Dan Huseman, not only share a house in Des Moines, soon they'll also share the same district.

"It is kind of awkward being roommates and getting thrown in together, but again we wouldn't be roommate if we didn't get along with each other," said joked.

He says the topic's come up, and that neither's made a definite decision on their political future.

This won't get figured out until Huseman has recovered his health. Here's hoping that recovery will be swift and full.

House District 4

Registration: D 1529, R 13017, N 3067, total 17617, R+ 11488, which makes this the number one Republican House seat in the state.
Incumbent: Dwayne Alons, R-Hull

Alons, 64, who once argued that global warming wasn't a problem because we have air conditioning, has been focused on guns and gays this session, joining last week's last-ditch attempt at impeaching the Supreme Court, an effort immediately shot down by House GOP leadership. Yesterday, Bleeding Heartland noted:

Two experienced House Republicans joined (three freshmen) in filing the articles of impeachment: Betty De Boef (district 76) and Dwayne Alons (district 4). To some extent they are outsiders in their own caucus, among very few veteran legislators passed over for committee chairmanships when Republicans took back the Iowa House majority...

I don't see what unhappy party leaders can do to Alons. As I mentioned above, he doesn't hold a committee chairmanship leaders could take away. He isn't the brightest bulb, but he does have the guts to back hopeless causes. For example, he nominated Bob Vander Plaats for lieutenant governor at last summer's state GOP convention. Earlier this session, Alons proposed other legislation backed by only a small minority in his own caucus: he sought to reduce Iowa Supreme Court justices' pay and change the state's judicial selection process.

They like it back home: Alons won with 82% in 2008, probably the state’s biggest Democrat vs. Republican margin, and that earned him a walkover in 2010.

Old District 4 covered the northern two-thirds of Sioux and went north into Lyon County. The new seat is entirely in Sioux and adds Orange City, which used to be in Chuck Soderberg's old district 3. The exclusion of Lyon makes this seat a teeny bit less red.


New Map | New Map (Insets) | Old Map

Barbour Out

Barbour Not Running

Cross one name off the very, very long list of Republican candidates, as Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, in a bit of a surprise, announces that he is NOT running.

Barbour had made several Iowa stump stops, including a Johnson County GOP spaghetti dinner that I attended. Mybe he wasn't seeing the commitments on the ground, or maybe his statement can be taken at face value:

"A candidate for president today is embracing a ten-year commitment to an all-consuming effort, to the virtual exclusion of all else," he said. "His (or her) supporters expect and deserve no less than absolute fire in the belly from their candidate. I cannot offer that with certainty, and total certainty is required."

In a parliamentary system, Barbour would be the kind of guy who'd be a prime minister: long service to the party in a variety of roles, from a safe bastion of the party.

I was impressed with Barbour, or at least as much as I can be with a conservative Republican. His speech focused entirely on the economy, and while I didn't agree with his assessment I noticed the lack of tangents into divisive social issues or oppositional defiance on foreign policy.

Barbour also looked like a quintessential retail politician, ready to win the caucuses one handshake and backslap at a time. I liked the guy, in the same folksy way I like Mike Huckabee more than, say, Romney or Pawlenty.

To the extent that Barbour's asterisk of support goes to anyone, it helps the other "grownups" in the race: Romney, Pawlenty, and if he runs Daniels. It's just one less way to divide that traditional Main Street Republican vote, which no longer makes up a majority in a nominating contest.

So a guy like Haley Barbour can't get any traction, but Donald Trump gets taken seriously. Does that say more about the Republican Party of 2011 or about the process in general?

Update: Todd Versteegh comments to note: "Last week Barbour underwent what was termed a 'minor' back surgery for an 'ongoing medical issue'. The timing of that surgery occuring last week and today's announcement certainly is no coincidence."

District of the Day: Senate District 1, House District 1 and 2

District of the Day: Senate District 1, House District 1 and 2



Senate District 1

Registration: D 9761, R 18,483, N 14,968, total 43,229, R + 8722
Incumbents: Jack Kibbie, D-Emmetsburg and David Johnson, R-Ocheyedan

UPDATE April 25: First day, first district, first update. Alert reader Beth Schopis notes that Kibbie told a local forum on April 13: "I'm not going to run in 2012. Remember, you heard it here first." Thanks for the many years of service, Jack. This means no race in Senate 1 next year as Johnson will hold over.

We start with a big one: two senators of opposite parties paired. District 1 is five whole counties in the state's northwest corner: Dickinson and Clay, Lyon, Palo Alto and Osceola, in order of population. (Census trivia: Dickinson and Clay recorded EXACTLY the same population: 16,667.)

Senate President Kibbie keeps only Palo Alto from his 2000s district; he had Dickinson and Clay in the 90s. He loses Emmet and Kossuth, which go east into open District 4, and Pocahontas, Humboldt, and a sliver of Webster, which go south to Ft. Dodge's Daryl Beall.

Johnson keeps Dickinson, his home county Osceola and most of Clay (including the city of Spencer). He loses O'Brien and a sliver of Sioux to Randy Feenstra, and instead gets blood-red Lyon County, which he had in his 1990s House district.

Kibbie, at 81 the oldest legislator, has served consecutively in the Senate since 1988, and also served eight years in the House and Senate in the 1960s. He was re-elected with 71% in 2008 in old district 4 against a "Grassroots For Life Party" candidate ("Tea Party" didn't enter the nomenclature till 2009). Johnson, 60, moved over from the House in 2002 and was comfortable in old Senate District 3; 59% in 2006 and unopposed in 2010.

KICD radio offered a story with a lot of regional roundup the day the Legislature approved the map:

Kibbie (noted) "it's impossible I think for any Democrat to win that district. It is a big plus for the Republicans." He noted his pleasure with the current map and the previous one but says "I'm not satisfied whatsoever with the way the map is. It is always hard to elect a Democrat in Northwest Iowa but this makes it worse."

Senator Johnson tells KICD News "personally I don't have a problem with the plan to reconfigure the district I currently represent." He did express disappointment with O'Brien County not being included in the proposal.

The even-odd factor comes into play here. (Even-number Senate districts normally go on the ballot in presidential years; odd numbers are on the governor cycle.) Kibbie is at the end of a four year term. If he stays and runs, it would force Johnson to run two years early for a two year term. But with Kibbie himself saying it's "impossible" to win this district, that's a big ask to make of a guy who'll be 84 by Election Day 2012. Kibbie says he'll announce his plans post-session, word is he's expected to retire. That would let Johnson hold over till 2014.

House District 1

Registration: D 3936, R 11,506, N 6802, total 22,251, R+ 7570
Incumbent: Jeff Smith, R-Okoboji

Smith, 43, won an easy primary and had no opposition in the 2010 general to take over old district 6 from fellow Republican Mike May. KICD:

Smith would be included in House District 1 which would be comprised of the upper two thirds of Dickinson County, as well as Osceola County which is currently represented by Republican Royd Chambers and Lyon County which is represented by Republican Dwayne Alons.

Smith's old district 6 was basically Spirit Lake, Okoboji and Spencer. In the new map he keeps almost all of the Iowa Great Lakes population core of Dickinson and heads west to Osceola and Lyon. His old very Republican district becomes a very, VERY Republican district.

House District 2

Registration: D 5825, R 6977, N 8166, total 20,978, R+ 1152
No incumbent

This empty seat is all of Clay and Palo Alto, with the southern third of Dickinson thrown in. Much of this was Smith's. Palo Alto was in Democrat John Wittneben's old district 7.

This could be an escape route for Royd Chambers, who is paired with fellow Republican Dan Huseman in new District 3. But his no vote on the map makes me think he quits or dukes it out in a primary instead. It's an opportunity for a Spencer or Emmetsburg Republican such as 2010 candidate Lannie Miller, who lost to Wittneben on turf that leaned Democratic. And Democrats like Kibbie have won in this general area in living memory. (Indeed, if Kibbie were younger this might be a place for one of those Senate to House moves we sometimes see in map years.) Longtime rep Marcy Frevert voluntarily retired last year and saw Wittneben hang on to the seat.

Links: New Map | New Map (Insets) | Old Map

District of the Day

"District of the Day" Series on Deeth Blog

If you can't find the story you want to read, write it yourself, I always say, and my obsessive compulsive coverage of Iowa redistricting has nonetheless left me unsatisfied. There's lots of congressional district analysis, and the occasional piece on an individual legislator, but there's no seat by seat look at the state legislative seats.

So I guess I have to write it. Tomorrow I launch the biggest, nerdiest series in the long history of the Deeth Blog: the District Of The Day.

Every weekday I'll look at one district - a Senate district, to be exact, and its two House districts, in district number order. You'll see the names, the moves, the histories, the partisan tilt, and the changes of the lines. I'll also, after each district's day in the sun, keep the pages updated till we get into filing time next March and I start obsessing about every race in that context instead.

It's a tall order but the first three weeks are in the can. Stay tuned to this Bat channel.