Senate District 17
Registration: D 16615, R 7302, N 10142, total 34138, D +9313
Incumbent: Jack Hatch, D-Des Moines; holdover seat
Hatch has been a non-consecutive fixture in the Legislature for 25 years. He first went to the House in 1984, then lost a 1992 state Senate primary and a 1996 Congressional primary. He landed on his feet as Tom Harkin's top state staffer, then made an unexpected comeback to the House in 2000 when Mike Cataldo's re-election race melted down. He was paired with Ed Fallon in 2002 but switched over to the Senate and has had easy races since. As he will in the future, with the third most Democratic district in the state.
Hatch's district keeps its solid Democratic margin, but instead of going north, it shifts south and east to the city limits (the west line is Fleur). In fact, it changes enough that he has two different representatives; the old seat was made up of the Ruth Ann Gaines and Ako Abdul-Samad districts, neither of whom is in this new district. Hatch was unopposed in 2010 and holds over to 2014.
Campaign finance reports: Neighbors for Hatch
House District 33
Registration: D 7962, R 3405, N 4815, total 16217, D +4557
Incumbent: Kevin McCarthy, D-Des Moines
McCarthy claimed this seat in a three-way 2002 primary and has had few difficulties since. He took over as Majority Leader, the number two leadership post behind Speaker Pat Murphy, in 2006 when the Democrats won the house. Murphy stood down after the 2010 loss and McCarthy moved into the top spot. He won his own race with 60% in 2010 against perennial candidate Jeremy Walters, who got kicked out of the Republican's fair booth for saying AIDS victims deserved to die.
The southeast corner of Des Moines still dominates McCarthy's district. It moves a bit west, shedding the city of Pleasant Hill; the west border moves from SE 14th to Union and SE 5th. The north line moves south from University to the Iowa Interstate tracks. That all makes the safe Democratic seat about 500 Democrats safer. With no Republican opponent yet, McCarthy should be able to focus his efforts on taking back the House with few worries about his own seat.
Campaign finance reports: McCarthy for State Representative-McCarthy for Iowa
House District 34
Registration: D 8653, R 3897, N 5327, total 17921, D +4756
Incumbent: Bruce Hunter, D-Des Moines
Hunter won a hurry-up January 2003 special when the just re-elected Frank Chiodo stepped down pre-session. Few problems since: an easy 2008 win, and his 2010 opponent dropped out.
Anti-abortion extremist, perennial candidate and self-proclaimed "Secretary General of the Army of God" Dave Leach made his way onto the Republican primary ballot. This is at least his seventh campaign; the most recent run was against Matt McCoy in 2010. Republicans who don't think murdering doctors is morally justified can vote for Patti Branco in the primary instead.
Hunter's south-side turf moves north and takes in the core of downtown, up to I-235, giving the district a tall, skinny look on a map. Sort of like 801 Grand only without the point on top. He cedes some turf on the east to McCarthy, and gets a nice smooth Fleur Drive line on the west. Like McCarthy, his safe seat gets just a little better.
Campaign finance reports: Committee to Elect Bruce Hunter
Original post 5/17/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
The worst.
Friday, March 16, 2012
District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 16, Iowa House District 31 & 32
Senate District 16
Registration: D 15572, R 7578, N 9711, total 32900, D +7994
Incumbent: Dick Dearden, D-Des Moines
The history of east Des Moines legislative districts is marked by multi-way primaries on the rare occasions that a district opens up, followed by years of quiet general elections as the legislators gain seniority and become legislative legends.
Most of east Des Moines stays in Dick Dearden's district. His toughest race was when he moved over from the House in 1994: a five-way primary which he won with 44%. (Second place went to Ruth Ann Gaines, who had to wait 16 years for another chance; keep reading.) Dearden was paired last map with Matt McCoy, who moved, but the shuffle wound up making Dearden take a two year term in 2002. No big; he was unopposed.
This year Dearden did draw an opponent, Republican Dave Edwards, who appears to be Some Dude.
Campaign finance reports: Dick Dearden for State Senate Committee
House District 31
Registration: D 7725, R 4720, N 5292, total 17749, D +3005
Incumbent: Rick Olson, D-Des Moines
John Connors represented east Des Moines from Before God - well, 1972 - until 2004 when he retired in his 80s. The seat was so solidly Democratic that it prompted a six-way primary, No one got the required 35%, but Rick Olson finished first with 30 and then got the nomination at a convention.
The Democratic registration edge drops by 1400 voters, but this remains a safe district. Olson sheds some territory south of the fairgrounds. His new turf includes Gray's Woods, Valley High Manor, and Capitol East, plus the city of Pleasant Hill. Olson won with 63% against a late starting Republican in 2010. No Republican filed for the primary this year.
Campaign finance reports: Committee to Elect Rick Olson To House of Representatives
House District 32
Registration: D 7847, R 2858, N 4419, total 15151, D +4989
Incumbent: Ruth Ann Gaines, D-Des Moines
Dearden and Gaines are the legislators who can go to work without leaving their district, as they represent the Capitol and surrounding area. This has long been an African-American held seat, with Tom Baker preceding Wayne Ford. Ford essentially won this seat for 14 years in a four-way 1996 primary. A couple days before the 2010 filing deadline, Ford announced his retirement and endorsed Gaines, who wound up with no primary opposition. She easily beat a Republican Some Dude in November, and this year faces another one, Ron Paul supporter Joe Corbin.
The district is still centered around the I-235 entrance to Des Moines along the northeast. It includes Fairmont Acres, Douglas Park, and the Grand View College area. On the west it ends at 2nd Avenue and the river. The changes slightly pad the safe Democratic margin.
Campaign finance reports: Ruth Ann Gaines for State Representative
Original post 5/16/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
Registration: D 15572, R 7578, N 9711, total 32900, D +7994
Incumbent: Dick Dearden, D-Des Moines
The history of east Des Moines legislative districts is marked by multi-way primaries on the rare occasions that a district opens up, followed by years of quiet general elections as the legislators gain seniority and become legislative legends.
Most of east Des Moines stays in Dick Dearden's district. His toughest race was when he moved over from the House in 1994: a five-way primary which he won with 44%. (Second place went to Ruth Ann Gaines, who had to wait 16 years for another chance; keep reading.) Dearden was paired last map with Matt McCoy, who moved, but the shuffle wound up making Dearden take a two year term in 2002. No big; he was unopposed.
This year Dearden did draw an opponent, Republican Dave Edwards, who appears to be Some Dude.
Campaign finance reports: Dick Dearden for State Senate Committee
House District 31
Registration: D 7725, R 4720, N 5292, total 17749, D +3005
Incumbent: Rick Olson, D-Des Moines
John Connors represented east Des Moines from Before God - well, 1972 - until 2004 when he retired in his 80s. The seat was so solidly Democratic that it prompted a six-way primary, No one got the required 35%, but Rick Olson finished first with 30 and then got the nomination at a convention.
The Democratic registration edge drops by 1400 voters, but this remains a safe district. Olson sheds some territory south of the fairgrounds. His new turf includes Gray's Woods, Valley High Manor, and Capitol East, plus the city of Pleasant Hill. Olson won with 63% against a late starting Republican in 2010. No Republican filed for the primary this year.
Campaign finance reports: Committee to Elect Rick Olson To House of Representatives
House District 32
Registration: D 7847, R 2858, N 4419, total 15151, D +4989
Incumbent: Ruth Ann Gaines, D-Des Moines
Dearden and Gaines are the legislators who can go to work without leaving their district, as they represent the Capitol and surrounding area. This has long been an African-American held seat, with Tom Baker preceding Wayne Ford. Ford essentially won this seat for 14 years in a four-way 1996 primary. A couple days before the 2010 filing deadline, Ford announced his retirement and endorsed Gaines, who wound up with no primary opposition. She easily beat a Republican Some Dude in November, and this year faces another one, Ron Paul supporter Joe Corbin.
The district is still centered around the I-235 entrance to Des Moines along the northeast. It includes Fairmont Acres, Douglas Park, and the Grand View College area. On the west it ends at 2nd Avenue and the river. The changes slightly pad the safe Democratic margin.
Campaign finance reports: Ruth Ann Gaines for State Representative
Original post 5/16/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 15, Iowa House District 29 & 30
Senate District 15
Registration: D 15712, R 13370, N 13494, total 42611, D +2342
Incumbent: Dennis Black, D-Grinnell; holdover seat
Dennis Black's turf has consistently shifted west along I-80 over his three decades in office. He was first elected to the House in 1982 from a district in Poweshiek and western Iowa counties. Black moved from the House to the Senate in 1994 from a Poweshiek and Jasper district. Then in the 2000s his seat, now clearly Newton-based, moved out of Poweshiek entirely and went west to Altoona and eastern Polk. At this pace, the seat should be all the way into Polk by 2030 and reach Dallas County by 2050 or 2060. By the end of the century Black will be paired up with Mike Gronstal. And I wouldn't be surprised if they're both still in the Senate.
This decade's change is less dramatic. We'll let the senator do it himself:
Black will hold over till 2014 under these lines. The small shifts barely change the party balance.
Campaign finance reports: Dennis Black for State Senate
House District 29
Registration: D 8970, R 6287, N 7327, total 22598, D +2683
Incumbent: Dan Kelley, D-Newton
Kelley stepped into the 2010 race late when incumbent Paul Bell died. Bell won his last term with 61%. Kelley beat the same opponent, Gabe Swersie, who was in the race before Bell's death, by a much closer 274 votes. Swersie is making his third try this year.
Kelley's district stays pretty much the same geographically. Instead of the southeast corner of Jasper, he'll have the southwest corner. He keeps Newton and everything north to the county line. The changes gain him 1000 more Democratic voters. That and a term under his belt should help in 2012.
The Swersie Campaign Fund had $1687 on hand on January 19, all leftover from 2010. Dan Kelley for State Representative has been more active, raising $8455 during the year, spending $6325, and had $2684 on hand.
House District 30
Registration: D 6742, R 7083, N 6167, total 20013, R +341
Open Seat: Kim Pearson, R-Pleasant Hill, retiring; contested Republican primary
So long, Kim Pearson. It's been quite a term. In an epic Register profile she hinted that the compromises of legislative politics were not for her and that she might make it a short career, and in early January she made it official.
It also looks like the anti-choice iconoclast recruited her own successor. Jim Carley, founder of Save Our American Republic (SOAR) announced well before Pearson made her retirement official. He seems more worried about the socialist menace than about Pearson's pet cause, fetuses. (Pearson's greatest claim to fame, historically, will be that she scuttled House GOP efforts to restrict abortion by holding out and insisting on a Roe-Wade challenging total abortion ban.)
Carol Miller of rural Ankeny is also in on the Republican side, and possibly more moderate, as she showed up at a bipartisan training for women candidates back in January.
Joe Riding, a moderate-ish Altoona city council member, got in on the Democratic side before Pearson got out. Riding has Chamber of Commerce ties, and owns and manages a family golf course, not a bad match for this high-growth suburban area. (I have family in the district and there's not a lot of old trees out here. As Mitt would say, they're not the right height.)
Riding starts with a big financial edge; Citizens for Joe Riding had $5290 in the bank on the January 19 campaign finance report, to Carley for Iowa's $520. Miller announced later and had not yet opened a committee.
The Altoona-based seat had been held by conservaDem Geri Huser for seven terms. By 2008 she was at the point where she drew a primary challenge from labor but no Republican opponent; pretty much sums it up. In 2010 she was the token Democratic endorsement for several conservative groups, and an independent entered the race to run against, as he said, "two Republican candidates." As an unknown name on the ballot with an R after it, Pearson prevailed by 126 votes with just 48.5% of the vote.
Republican chances in this seat are probably improved by both Pearson's retirement and the changes around the edge of the district lines. The district pulls all the way into Polk County, losing its piece of Jasper. It gains some townships north of Bondurant and over to Elkhart and, to the south, picks up the Polk County part of Carlisle. This gets rid of more than 1100 Democrats, turning a Democratic leaning district into a swing seat.
Original post 5/13/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
Registration: D 15712, R 13370, N 13494, total 42611, D +2342
Incumbent: Dennis Black, D-Grinnell; holdover seat
Dennis Black's turf has consistently shifted west along I-80 over his three decades in office. He was first elected to the House in 1982 from a district in Poweshiek and western Iowa counties. Black moved from the House to the Senate in 1994 from a Poweshiek and Jasper district. Then in the 2000s his seat, now clearly Newton-based, moved out of Poweshiek entirely and went west to Altoona and eastern Polk. At this pace, the seat should be all the way into Polk by 2030 and reach Dallas County by 2050 or 2060. By the end of the century Black will be paired up with Mike Gronstal. And I wouldn't be surprised if they're both still in the Senate.
This decade's change is less dramatic. We'll let the senator do it himself:
As for (old) Senate District 21, which I now represent, it would be changed by eliminating Lynn Grove, Elk Creek and Palo Alto townships from the new District 15, and adding three rural townships north and west of Mitchellville, all in Polk County. Folks living south of the Newton city limits in Palo Alto would see a new Senate District 14 that would combine with five other counties, and stretch all the way to the Missouri border. By the way the crow flies, that district would be 125 miles long.
I live in Richland Township, north of Lynnville. Thus, I would continue to represent Newton, Baxter, Prairie City, Colfax, Lambs Grove and the eastern one-third of Polk County.Fun factoid: This is one of the two Senate districts that's split between congressional districts, because 4 congressional districts equals 25 House districts and 12 1/2 Senate seats. Dan Kelley's Jasper-based House 29 is in the 2nd CD and House 30 is in the 3rd.
Black will hold over till 2014 under these lines. The small shifts barely change the party balance.
Campaign finance reports: Dennis Black for State Senate
House District 29
Registration: D 8970, R 6287, N 7327, total 22598, D +2683
Incumbent: Dan Kelley, D-Newton
Kelley stepped into the 2010 race late when incumbent Paul Bell died. Bell won his last term with 61%. Kelley beat the same opponent, Gabe Swersie, who was in the race before Bell's death, by a much closer 274 votes. Swersie is making his third try this year.
Kelley's district stays pretty much the same geographically. Instead of the southeast corner of Jasper, he'll have the southwest corner. He keeps Newton and everything north to the county line. The changes gain him 1000 more Democratic voters. That and a term under his belt should help in 2012.
The Swersie Campaign Fund had $1687 on hand on January 19, all leftover from 2010. Dan Kelley for State Representative has been more active, raising $8455 during the year, spending $6325, and had $2684 on hand.
House District 30
Registration: D 6742, R 7083, N 6167, total 20013, R +341
Open Seat: Kim Pearson, R-Pleasant Hill, retiring; contested Republican primary
So long, Kim Pearson. It's been quite a term. In an epic Register profile she hinted that the compromises of legislative politics were not for her and that she might make it a short career, and in early January she made it official.
It also looks like the anti-choice iconoclast recruited her own successor. Jim Carley, founder of Save Our American Republic (SOAR) announced well before Pearson made her retirement official. He seems more worried about the socialist menace than about Pearson's pet cause, fetuses. (Pearson's greatest claim to fame, historically, will be that she scuttled House GOP efforts to restrict abortion by holding out and insisting on a Roe-Wade challenging total abortion ban.)
Carol Miller of rural Ankeny is also in on the Republican side, and possibly more moderate, as she showed up at a bipartisan training for women candidates back in January.
Joe Riding, a moderate-ish Altoona city council member, got in on the Democratic side before Pearson got out. Riding has Chamber of Commerce ties, and owns and manages a family golf course, not a bad match for this high-growth suburban area. (I have family in the district and there's not a lot of old trees out here. As Mitt would say, they're not the right height.)
Riding starts with a big financial edge; Citizens for Joe Riding had $5290 in the bank on the January 19 campaign finance report, to Carley for Iowa's $520. Miller announced later and had not yet opened a committee.
The Altoona-based seat had been held by conservaDem Geri Huser for seven terms. By 2008 she was at the point where she drew a primary challenge from labor but no Republican opponent; pretty much sums it up. In 2010 she was the token Democratic endorsement for several conservative groups, and an independent entered the race to run against, as he said, "two Republican candidates." As an unknown name on the ballot with an R after it, Pearson prevailed by 126 votes with just 48.5% of the vote.
Republican chances in this seat are probably improved by both Pearson's retirement and the changes around the edge of the district lines. The district pulls all the way into Polk County, losing its piece of Jasper. It gains some townships north of Bondurant and over to Elkhart and, to the south, picks up the Polk County part of Carlisle. This gets rid of more than 1100 Democrats, turning a Democratic leaning district into a swing seat.
Original post 5/13/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 14, Iowa House District 27 & 28
Senate District 14
Registration: D 12402, R 13845, N 15503, total 41776, R +1443
Open Seat; Paul McKinley, R-Chariton, retiring. Contested primaries in both parties.
Sure, the leadership challenge ahead of the anticipated loss in the Marion special senate election probably played the biggest role in Paul McKinley's retirement. But it's worth noting that on Map Day, he went from a 3844 Republican registration edge to a much more swingy 622. Caucus activity has boosted Republican rolls, but it's still potentially competitive.
The new seat includes four whole counties - Clarke, Lucas, Decatur and Wayne - plus most of Mahaska, with the exception of Pella. It also has a chunk of southern Jasper County around Monroe and adds a little more to that piece: Sully, Reasnor, Lynnville, and all the way up to the Newton city limits. Bleeding Heartland has a good look at the district.
Wayne County supervisor Amy Sinclair was first to announce on the Republican side. Wayne is the smallest county in the district, so it looks like Steven Everly of Knoxville sees an opportunity too. Everly works for a lighting company and his biggest internet footprint is a lawsuit the company filed against the Knoxville school district. Stephanie Jones of Knoxville was the third Republican to file. Some Dude Larry Steele had also announced, but moved to Des Moines and filed in House 36 instead.
Democrat Dick Schrad, the former Knoxville City Manager, has a primary with James Demichelis, who won 33% in a 2008 House race.
Only Sinclair filed a January 19 campaign finance report and she had just $630 on hand.
House District 27
Registration: D 5963, R 6687, N 7602, total 20269, R +724
Incumbent: Joel Fry, R-Osceola; primary challenge
One of 2010's upsets, Fry knocked off Democrat Mike Reasoner with a solid 57% win. Reasoner was from Creston and the old lines included most of Union County. The new district removes all of Union and keeps Decatur and Fry's home County, Clarke. It adds Wayne County and most of Lucas County including Chariton.
In addition to getting geographically bigger, Fry's seat gets a little closer partisan split. He lost about 400 Republicans with redistricting. Reasoner managed to hang on for four terms despite the GOP edge.
Primary challenger James Demichelis, Jr. of Chariton is not to be confused with the Democrat in the Senate race. Father and son Some Dudes?
Campaign finance reports: Fry for Iowa House
House District 28
Registration: D 6439, R 7158, N 7901, total 21507, R +719
Open Seat; Rich Arnold, R-Russell, retiring. Contested Republican primary
The new map changes the lines substantially. Lucas County gets split for the first time since Iowa started Clean Redistricting (TM) in 1981, and with Chariton going west to Fry's district, this seat has the smaller, eastern part. The chunk of Marion County expands, to take in Knoxville and almost the whole county (but not Pella), and adds part of southern Jasper.
Arnold was first elected in 1994 and won with 67% in both 2008 and 2010. But the changes cost the seat about 1000 Republicans and turn a good GOP district into a swing seat.
Democrat Megan Suhr was first to announce. Republican Greg Heartsill, a "homeschool(er) with nine children," looks to be the Republican frontrunner. Heartsill outraised Christian bookstore owner Len Gosseling by several orders of magnitude.
Campaign finance reports: Len Gosselink for State Representative, Heartsill for Iowa
Original post 5/12/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
Registration: D 12402, R 13845, N 15503, total 41776, R +1443
Open Seat; Paul McKinley, R-Chariton, retiring. Contested primaries in both parties.
Sure, the leadership challenge ahead of the anticipated loss in the Marion special senate election probably played the biggest role in Paul McKinley's retirement. But it's worth noting that on Map Day, he went from a 3844 Republican registration edge to a much more swingy 622. Caucus activity has boosted Republican rolls, but it's still potentially competitive.
The new seat includes four whole counties - Clarke, Lucas, Decatur and Wayne - plus most of Mahaska, with the exception of Pella. It also has a chunk of southern Jasper County around Monroe and adds a little more to that piece: Sully, Reasnor, Lynnville, and all the way up to the Newton city limits. Bleeding Heartland has a good look at the district.
Wayne County supervisor Amy Sinclair was first to announce on the Republican side. Wayne is the smallest county in the district, so it looks like Steven Everly of Knoxville sees an opportunity too. Everly works for a lighting company and his biggest internet footprint is a lawsuit the company filed against the Knoxville school district. Stephanie Jones of Knoxville was the third Republican to file. Some Dude Larry Steele had also announced, but moved to Des Moines and filed in House 36 instead.
Democrat Dick Schrad, the former Knoxville City Manager, has a primary with James Demichelis, who won 33% in a 2008 House race.
Only Sinclair filed a January 19 campaign finance report and she had just $630 on hand.
House District 27
Registration: D 5963, R 6687, N 7602, total 20269, R +724
Incumbent: Joel Fry, R-Osceola; primary challenge
One of 2010's upsets, Fry knocked off Democrat Mike Reasoner with a solid 57% win. Reasoner was from Creston and the old lines included most of Union County. The new district removes all of Union and keeps Decatur and Fry's home County, Clarke. It adds Wayne County and most of Lucas County including Chariton.
In addition to getting geographically bigger, Fry's seat gets a little closer partisan split. He lost about 400 Republicans with redistricting. Reasoner managed to hang on for four terms despite the GOP edge.
Primary challenger James Demichelis, Jr. of Chariton is not to be confused with the Democrat in the Senate race. Father and son Some Dudes?
Campaign finance reports: Fry for Iowa House
House District 28
Registration: D 6439, R 7158, N 7901, total 21507, R +719
Open Seat; Rich Arnold, R-Russell, retiring. Contested Republican primary
The new map changes the lines substantially. Lucas County gets split for the first time since Iowa started Clean Redistricting (TM) in 1981, and with Chariton going west to Fry's district, this seat has the smaller, eastern part. The chunk of Marion County expands, to take in Knoxville and almost the whole county (but not Pella), and adds part of southern Jasper.
Arnold was first elected in 1994 and won with 67% in both 2008 and 2010. But the changes cost the seat about 1000 Republicans and turn a good GOP district into a swing seat.
Democrat Megan Suhr was first to announce. Republican Greg Heartsill, a "homeschool(er) with nine children," looks to be the Republican frontrunner. Heartsill outraised Christian bookstore owner Len Gosseling by several orders of magnitude.
Campaign finance reports: Len Gosselink for State Representative, Heartsill for Iowa
Original post 5/12/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 13, Iowa House District 25 & 26
Senate District 13
Registration: D 13570, R 14964, N 15293, total 43860, R +1394
Incumbent: Kent Sorenson, R-Indianola; holdover seat
It's been quite a ride for Kent: knocked off an incumbent in 2008, knocked off another incumbent in 2010, and national attention in the closing hours of 2011. So what are the back home electoral consequences of that last-second Dolchstoß of Michele Bachman? We won't know till 2014, as Sorenson holds over.
The district is remarkably unchanged from old Senate 37. It sheds a small bit of Dallas County and the city of Cumming in Warren (thus sparing Tom Harkin the indignity of being in Sorenson's district) and keeps all the rest of Warren and all of Madison County. This swingy south suburban turf has been a revolving door for legislators for over a decade, and is certain to be closely fought in the battle of Boswell-Latham, in the two House races, and in two years when Sorenson is up.
Campaign finance reports: Sorenson for Statehouse
House District 25
Registration: D 6482, R 7966, N 7877, total 22340, R +1484
Incumbent: Julian Garrett, R-Indianola; primary challenge/rematch
Garrett's first run was a Senate bid in 2006, which he lost to Democrat Staci Appel (she in turn lost to Sorenson in 2010). When Jodi Tymeson Retired from the House in 2010, Garrett won a three-way primary with 44%, winning his Warren County part of the district and the Dallas part that's now gone, but losing Madison. Garrett then beat a late-starting Democrat with 64%.
That friends and neighbors primary split is relevant again. Former Madison County supervisor Joan Acela, who finished third overall in the 2010 primary but won Madison County, is running again. Tymeson was Madison County based; are there still hard feelings that Warren now has two reps but Madison has none? The new seat is about half Madison and half Warren; with the Dallas part gone the Warren parts grow. There are two separate chunks of Warren County: a chunk south of Indianola where Garrett lives, and a northern piece that includes Norwalk.
Norwalk is home for Democratic teacher Katie Routh, whose big claim to fame is her son, actor Brandon Routh. But will Superman's Mom be able to leap a Republican registration edge in a single bound?
Campaign finance reports: Garrett for Statehouse Committee (Both Acela and Routh announced after the January 19 report)
House District 26
Registration: D 7088, R 6998, N 7416, total 21520, D +90
Open seat; Glen Massie, R-Des Moines retiring. Contested Republican primary.
Even during his first session, there were rumors that Massie was looking at not running. And without any sort of visible announcement that I could find, he just sort of didn't show up to file for re-election.
It wasn't a complete surprise because two Republicans had already filed: Carlisle mayor Ruth Randleman and Warren County GOP "co-chair" (sic) Steve McCoy. I have never yet been able to figure out why Iowa Republicans call their number two officer "co-chair."
Whichever one wins the primary faces Democrat Scott Ourth, who lost 53-47 to Massie but probably would have won in any year other than 2010. Scott Ourth for State Representative broke all sorts of fundraising records for a first time candidate, never really stopped running, and had $29,039 cash on hand on this year's January 19 report.
The new lines and the presidential cycle make this a little friendlier district for Ourth than old district 74. It sheds Norwalk to the west into Garrett's district, and gains east and south Warren territory in return.
Original post 5/11/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
Registration: D 13570, R 14964, N 15293, total 43860, R +1394
Incumbent: Kent Sorenson, R-Indianola; holdover seat
It's been quite a ride for Kent: knocked off an incumbent in 2008, knocked off another incumbent in 2010, and national attention in the closing hours of 2011. So what are the back home electoral consequences of that last-second Dolchstoß of Michele Bachman? We won't know till 2014, as Sorenson holds over.
The district is remarkably unchanged from old Senate 37. It sheds a small bit of Dallas County and the city of Cumming in Warren (thus sparing Tom Harkin the indignity of being in Sorenson's district) and keeps all the rest of Warren and all of Madison County. This swingy south suburban turf has been a revolving door for legislators for over a decade, and is certain to be closely fought in the battle of Boswell-Latham, in the two House races, and in two years when Sorenson is up.
Campaign finance reports: Sorenson for Statehouse
House District 25
Registration: D 6482, R 7966, N 7877, total 22340, R +1484
Incumbent: Julian Garrett, R-Indianola; primary challenge/rematch
Garrett's first run was a Senate bid in 2006, which he lost to Democrat Staci Appel (she in turn lost to Sorenson in 2010). When Jodi Tymeson Retired from the House in 2010, Garrett won a three-way primary with 44%, winning his Warren County part of the district and the Dallas part that's now gone, but losing Madison. Garrett then beat a late-starting Democrat with 64%.
That friends and neighbors primary split is relevant again. Former Madison County supervisor Joan Acela, who finished third overall in the 2010 primary but won Madison County, is running again. Tymeson was Madison County based; are there still hard feelings that Warren now has two reps but Madison has none? The new seat is about half Madison and half Warren; with the Dallas part gone the Warren parts grow. There are two separate chunks of Warren County: a chunk south of Indianola where Garrett lives, and a northern piece that includes Norwalk.
Norwalk is home for Democratic teacher Katie Routh, whose big claim to fame is her son, actor Brandon Routh. But will Superman's Mom be able to leap a Republican registration edge in a single bound?
Campaign finance reports: Garrett for Statehouse Committee (Both Acela and Routh announced after the January 19 report)
House District 26
Registration: D 7088, R 6998, N 7416, total 21520, D +90
Open seat; Glen Massie, R-Des Moines retiring. Contested Republican primary.
Even during his first session, there were rumors that Massie was looking at not running. And without any sort of visible announcement that I could find, he just sort of didn't show up to file for re-election.
It wasn't a complete surprise because two Republicans had already filed: Carlisle mayor Ruth Randleman and Warren County GOP "co-chair" (sic) Steve McCoy. I have never yet been able to figure out why Iowa Republicans call their number two officer "co-chair."
Whichever one wins the primary faces Democrat Scott Ourth, who lost 53-47 to Massie but probably would have won in any year other than 2010. Scott Ourth for State Representative broke all sorts of fundraising records for a first time candidate, never really stopped running, and had $29,039 cash on hand on this year's January 19 report.
The new lines and the presidential cycle make this a little friendlier district for Ourth than old district 74. It sheds Norwalk to the west into Garrett's district, and gains east and south Warren territory in return.
Original post 5/11/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 12, Iowa House District 23 & 24
Senate District 12
Registration: D 8794, R 19068, N 14892, total 42782, R +10274
Incumbent: Joni Ernst, R-Red Oak
Ernst, who took over in the January 2011 special election, to replace Lt. Gov. Kim Reynolds, still has a very Republican district made of whole small counties. A lot of those counties change, but luckily for Ernst the new counties are all solidly Republican. She trades with Hubert Houser, getting Mills, Fremont and Page in exchange for Adams, Union and a first round draft choice. Ernst keeps Taylor, Ringgold, and her home base of Montgomery. Clarke and Decatur move east. So Ernst has six counties instead of seven.
The district's shift west (out of the base of Reynolds' predecessor Jeff Angelo) nets Ernst an extra 5000 Republicans, making this the second most Republican in the state behind Randy Feenstra and moving it into don't even bother territory. Democrats didn't file in this race or either of the House seats.
Campaign finance reports: Ernst for State Senate
House District 23
Registration: D 4556, R 10150, N 7534, total 22254, R +5594
No incumbent
If you look at the map, this district essentially flips old District 97 upside down, losing Page County and adding most of Montgomery including Red Oak. It keeps all of Fremont and expands to take in all of Mills (the old lines only had most of Mills). But if you look at the population figures, it essentially turns the Page County seat into the Mills County seat, reflecting exurban growth in Mills. That's the only part of this corner of Iowa that's growing at all; Page lost 1000 people last census. The flip puts the retiring Richard Anderson outside the new lines. It also makes it even more Republican.
Raymond Chase of Glenwood will face off with Imogene farmer Mark Costello in a probably decisive GOP primary.
House District 24
Registration: D 4238, R 8918, N 7358, total 20528, R +4680
Incumbent: Cecil Dolecheck, R-Mt. Ayr (Richard Anderson, R-Clarinda, retiring) Primary challenge
We thought the excitement here was over with Anderson's retirement, but Dolecheck drew a primary challenge from restaurant owner Jane Jensen of Clarinda. This district is more compact than Dolecheck's old one. He was first elected in 1996 out of a Ringgold-Decatur-Union district. In the 2000s he had what looks like the largest geographic old House district, four whole counties: Montgomery, Taylor, Adams, and Ringgold, plus a corner of Union. He won with 60% in 2008 and was unopposed in 2010. The seat should be safe in the fall for either Republican.
Campaign finance reports: Dolecheck for Representative
Original post 5/10/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
Registration: D 8794, R 19068, N 14892, total 42782, R +10274
Incumbent: Joni Ernst, R-Red Oak
Ernst, who took over in the January 2011 special election, to replace Lt. Gov. Kim Reynolds, still has a very Republican district made of whole small counties. A lot of those counties change, but luckily for Ernst the new counties are all solidly Republican. She trades with Hubert Houser, getting Mills, Fremont and Page in exchange for Adams, Union and a first round draft choice. Ernst keeps Taylor, Ringgold, and her home base of Montgomery. Clarke and Decatur move east. So Ernst has six counties instead of seven.
The district's shift west (out of the base of Reynolds' predecessor Jeff Angelo) nets Ernst an extra 5000 Republicans, making this the second most Republican in the state behind Randy Feenstra and moving it into don't even bother territory. Democrats didn't file in this race or either of the House seats.
Campaign finance reports: Ernst for State Senate
House District 23
Registration: D 4556, R 10150, N 7534, total 22254, R +5594
No incumbent
If you look at the map, this district essentially flips old District 97 upside down, losing Page County and adding most of Montgomery including Red Oak. It keeps all of Fremont and expands to take in all of Mills (the old lines only had most of Mills). But if you look at the population figures, it essentially turns the Page County seat into the Mills County seat, reflecting exurban growth in Mills. That's the only part of this corner of Iowa that's growing at all; Page lost 1000 people last census. The flip puts the retiring Richard Anderson outside the new lines. It also makes it even more Republican.
Raymond Chase of Glenwood will face off with Imogene farmer Mark Costello in a probably decisive GOP primary.
House District 24
Registration: D 4238, R 8918, N 7358, total 20528, R +4680
Incumbent: Cecil Dolecheck, R-Mt. Ayr (Richard Anderson, R-Clarinda, retiring) Primary challenge
We thought the excitement here was over with Anderson's retirement, but Dolecheck drew a primary challenge from restaurant owner Jane Jensen of Clarinda. This district is more compact than Dolecheck's old one. He was first elected in 1996 out of a Ringgold-Decatur-Union district. In the 2000s he had what looks like the largest geographic old House district, four whole counties: Montgomery, Taylor, Adams, and Ringgold, plus a corner of Union. He won with 60% in 2008 and was unopposed in 2010. The seat should be safe in the fall for either Republican.
Campaign finance reports: Dolecheck for Representative
Original post 5/10/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 11, Iowa House District 21 & 22
Senate District 11
Registration: D 10085, R 19420, N 15325, total 44850, R +9335
Incumbent: Hubert Houser, R-Carson; holdover seat
Houser lost 1000 Republicans with this map, yet still has the third most Republican seat in the state. In an alternate universe without Iowa Clean Redistricting, those excess Republicans could have been gerrymandered into Council Bluffs to make Mike Gronstal's life hell.
The district keeps Houser's home turf, rural eastern Pottawattamie. In fact, he gains townships there, and now has all of PottCo outside the Council Bluffs city limits. But he loses all his counties to the south - Mills, Fremont and Page - to Joni Ernst. Instead he goes east. He inherits most of Cass, including Atlantic, from Nancy Boettger, and all of tiny Adams and Union from Ernst.
Houser moved over from the House without breaking a sweat in a 2001 special. He was unopposed in 2006 and overwhelmed a Some Dude Democrat with 74% in 2010. With an odd number district, he holds over till 2014.
Campaign finance reports: People for Houser
House District 21
Registration: D 4616, R 9358, N 7952, total 21933, R +4742
Incumbent: Jack Drake, R-Griswold
Drake, 76, has been in the House since 1992, and Cass County has been the core of the district the whole time.. He was unopposed in 2006 and 2010, and won with 59% in 2008. Drake drew a Democratic challenger this time: Retired football coach John Rose of Creston.
The new district keeps similar chunks of western Cass, including Atlantic, and eastern Pottawattamie. But instead of going north into Shelby County, the new district picks up Adams and Union. The line changes make the new district a bit more Republican.
Campaign finance reports: Jack Drake for State Representative
House District 22
Registration: D 5469, R 10062, N 7373, total 22917, R +4593
Incumbent: Greg Forristall, R-Macedonia; primary challenge
Forristall won an easy primary and a 61% general to win an open seat in 2006, and has been unopposed since. The revised lines pull the district all the way into Pottawattamie, adding a chunk north of Council Bluffs. Old District 98 dipped down to pick up part of Mills County, including Glenwood. The changes cost Forristall about 1100 Republicans, but leave him safe in a general election. No Democrat has filed.
But his primary challenger, Avoca city manager Clint Fitcher, seems a lot less Some Dude than most of the other late-emerging intra-party rivals.
Campaign finance reports: Committee to Elect Greg Forristall
Original post 5/09/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
Registration: D 10085, R 19420, N 15325, total 44850, R +9335
Incumbent: Hubert Houser, R-Carson; holdover seat
Houser lost 1000 Republicans with this map, yet still has the third most Republican seat in the state. In an alternate universe without Iowa Clean Redistricting, those excess Republicans could have been gerrymandered into Council Bluffs to make Mike Gronstal's life hell.
The district keeps Houser's home turf, rural eastern Pottawattamie. In fact, he gains townships there, and now has all of PottCo outside the Council Bluffs city limits. But he loses all his counties to the south - Mills, Fremont and Page - to Joni Ernst. Instead he goes east. He inherits most of Cass, including Atlantic, from Nancy Boettger, and all of tiny Adams and Union from Ernst.
Houser moved over from the House without breaking a sweat in a 2001 special. He was unopposed in 2006 and overwhelmed a Some Dude Democrat with 74% in 2010. With an odd number district, he holds over till 2014.
Campaign finance reports: People for Houser
House District 21
Registration: D 4616, R 9358, N 7952, total 21933, R +4742
Incumbent: Jack Drake, R-Griswold
Drake, 76, has been in the House since 1992, and Cass County has been the core of the district the whole time.. He was unopposed in 2006 and 2010, and won with 59% in 2008. Drake drew a Democratic challenger this time: Retired football coach John Rose of Creston.
The new district keeps similar chunks of western Cass, including Atlantic, and eastern Pottawattamie. But instead of going north into Shelby County, the new district picks up Adams and Union. The line changes make the new district a bit more Republican.
Campaign finance reports: Jack Drake for State Representative
House District 22
Registration: D 5469, R 10062, N 7373, total 22917, R +4593
Incumbent: Greg Forristall, R-Macedonia; primary challenge
Forristall won an easy primary and a 61% general to win an open seat in 2006, and has been unopposed since. The revised lines pull the district all the way into Pottawattamie, adding a chunk north of Council Bluffs. Old District 98 dipped down to pick up part of Mills County, including Glenwood. The changes cost Forristall about 1100 Republicans, but leave him safe in a general election. No Democrat has filed.
But his primary challenger, Avoca city manager Clint Fitcher, seems a lot less Some Dude than most of the other late-emerging intra-party rivals.
Campaign finance reports: Committee to Elect Greg Forristall
Original post 5/09/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 10, Iowa House District 19 & 20
Senate District 10
Registration: D 10963, R 15545, N 17249, total 43782, R +4582
No Incumbent; contested Republican primary
Dallas County was the fastest growing part of the state last decade, and they've outgrown sharing a Senate district with Boone and Republican Jerry Behn. This decade, most of Dallas anchors a new seat, adding Guthrie and Adair counties and a small chunk of Cass out of Nancy Boettger's old district.
For months it looked like Jake Chapman of Adel, a businessman and president of the Dallas County Young Republicans, had cleared the Republican primary field. He announced way back in May 2011. But on filing deadline day, Matthew Mardesen of Dallas Center made the ballot. He lost a race for Boone County sheriff in 2010. Democrats haven't got a candidate yet.
Campaign finance reports: Chapman for Senate
House District 19
Registration: D 5361, R 8381, N 8951, total 22706, R +3020
Incumbent: Ralph Watts, R-Adel
Watts went to the house in 2002 when old House 47 was created. He may have had the biggest population House district in the state by decade's end; indeed, it had grown to Senate seat size. He loses Waukee and the Dallas County parts of West Des Moines and Clive; together that makes up a whole new House District, the open 44.
Watts keeps Dallas Center, Adel, and Woodward, adds Dexter and Redfield, and loses a township here and there (including a couple in Boone County.) He also picks up a little corner of Polk, north of the Saylorville Reservoir and including Polk City, from Kevin Koester's overpopulated district. The end result of all this demographic and geographic change is a loss of 2000 Republicans for Watts, though he still has a good district. In the old lines he won with 60% in 2008 and 67% in 2010.
Democrats have a credible contender in Ken Herring of Adel, retired chief of the wildlife division of the DNR.
Campaign finance reports: Watts for House
House District 20
Registration: D 5602, R 7164, N 8298, total 21076, R +1562
Incumbent: Clel Baudler, R-Greenfield
With the record number of primary challenges to Republican incumbents, I'm amazed that someone didn't challenge Clel Baudler. He got on the wrong side of the gun lobby, because when it came to the "constitutional carry" and "stand your ground" stuff that Windschitl and company want, ole Clel is a retired cop first.
Baudler at least has a Democratic opponent this time, Democrat Greg Nepstad of Panora.
Baudler loses about 600 Republicans from the old district, but still has a good edge. He keeps the core of his old district 58, all of Guthrie and Adair counties and a similar corner of Cass, which is pretty good considering the growth just to the east in Dallas. He sheds Audubon County. Baudler was unopposed in 2006, won with 58% in 2008, and beat an independent in 2010.
Campaign finance reports: Baudler for State Representative
Original post 5/06/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
Registration: D 10963, R 15545, N 17249, total 43782, R +4582
No Incumbent; contested Republican primary
Dallas County was the fastest growing part of the state last decade, and they've outgrown sharing a Senate district with Boone and Republican Jerry Behn. This decade, most of Dallas anchors a new seat, adding Guthrie and Adair counties and a small chunk of Cass out of Nancy Boettger's old district.
For months it looked like Jake Chapman of Adel, a businessman and president of the Dallas County Young Republicans, had cleared the Republican primary field. He announced way back in May 2011. But on filing deadline day, Matthew Mardesen of Dallas Center made the ballot. He lost a race for Boone County sheriff in 2010. Democrats haven't got a candidate yet.
Campaign finance reports: Chapman for Senate
House District 19
Registration: D 5361, R 8381, N 8951, total 22706, R +3020
Incumbent: Ralph Watts, R-Adel
Watts went to the house in 2002 when old House 47 was created. He may have had the biggest population House district in the state by decade's end; indeed, it had grown to Senate seat size. He loses Waukee and the Dallas County parts of West Des Moines and Clive; together that makes up a whole new House District, the open 44.
Watts keeps Dallas Center, Adel, and Woodward, adds Dexter and Redfield, and loses a township here and there (including a couple in Boone County.) He also picks up a little corner of Polk, north of the Saylorville Reservoir and including Polk City, from Kevin Koester's overpopulated district. The end result of all this demographic and geographic change is a loss of 2000 Republicans for Watts, though he still has a good district. In the old lines he won with 60% in 2008 and 67% in 2010.
Democrats have a credible contender in Ken Herring of Adel, retired chief of the wildlife division of the DNR.
Campaign finance reports: Watts for House
House District 20
Registration: D 5602, R 7164, N 8298, total 21076, R +1562
Incumbent: Clel Baudler, R-Greenfield
With the record number of primary challenges to Republican incumbents, I'm amazed that someone didn't challenge Clel Baudler. He got on the wrong side of the gun lobby, because when it came to the "constitutional carry" and "stand your ground" stuff that Windschitl and company want, ole Clel is a retired cop first.
Baudler at least has a Democratic opponent this time, Democrat Greg Nepstad of Panora.
Baudler loses about 600 Republicans from the old district, but still has a good edge. He keeps the core of his old district 58, all of Guthrie and Adair counties and a similar corner of Cass, which is pretty good considering the growth just to the east in Dallas. He sheds Audubon County. Baudler was unopposed in 2006, won with 58% in 2008, and beat an independent in 2010.
Campaign finance reports: Baudler for State Representative
Original post 5/06/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 9, Iowa House District 17 & 18
Senate District 9
Registration: D 11168, R 14770, N 14433, total 40393, R +3602
Incumbent: Nancy Boettger, R-Harlan (James Seymour, R-Woodbine, retiring)
Any excitement we might have seen here ended with Seymour's retirement, and Boettger holds over till `14. She owns a family farm based bed and breakfast and immediately after Map Day said she wasn't moving, even though the new district is more Seymour's than hers. She keeps only her home county, Shelby, and pick up Harrison, Monona, Ida, and most of Crawford from Seymour plus some leftover rural bits of east Woodbury. Harrison County was in Boettger's first district when she was elected in 1994. She last saw an opponent in 2002.
Campaign finance report: Nancy Boettger for State Senate Committee
The district's two House members aren't paired, and don't have to move, but both will need to get to know some new constituents.
House District 17
Registration: D 5722, R 7797, N 7353, total 20885, R +2075
Incumbent: Matt Windschitl, R-Missouri Valley
The Legislature's leading Gun Guy won the seat by knocking off Paul Wilderdyke in a 2006 primary challenge from the right. He easily shot down (heh) a couple Democratic challenges, then went unopposed in 2010. So far he's unopposed this year as well.
Windschitl gets a lot of different turf but gains a few hundred Republicans. The old seat had all of Harrison County, most of Monona, and a little of rural north Pottawattamie. This map, he loses all of PottCo and eastern Harrison, but gets all of Monona and Ida, along with bits of rural Woodbury. The net effect is a gain of maybe 600 Republicans.
Campaign finance reports: Win with Windschitl
House District 18
Registration: D 5446, R 6973, N 7080, total 19508, R +1527
Incumbent: Jason Schultz, R-Schleswig; contested Democratic primary
Call this one a sleeper race: Democrats gave Schultz a bye in 2008 and 2010,so there's no general election track record. But this cycle two Democrats have jumped in, so this will be his first general election test.
Schultz won the seat in a contested 2008 primary, where he was seen as the more conservative candidate. (Incumbent Clarence Hoffman had been squeezed out by Iowans For Tax Relief.) The district is centered on Denison and western Crawford County. It used to go north into Ida, now it goes south and gets all of Shelby County. The line changes cost Schultz about 300 Republicans.
Democrat Kasey Friedrichsen offers a symbolically powerful argument against Team Branstad 5.0:
Campaign finance reports: Friends of Jason Schultz, Friedrichsen for State Representative
Original post 5/05/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
Registration: D 11168, R 14770, N 14433, total 40393, R +3602
Incumbent: Nancy Boettger, R-Harlan (James Seymour, R-Woodbine, retiring)
Any excitement we might have seen here ended with Seymour's retirement, and Boettger holds over till `14. She owns a family farm based bed and breakfast and immediately after Map Day said she wasn't moving, even though the new district is more Seymour's than hers. She keeps only her home county, Shelby, and pick up Harrison, Monona, Ida, and most of Crawford from Seymour plus some leftover rural bits of east Woodbury. Harrison County was in Boettger's first district when she was elected in 1994. She last saw an opponent in 2002.
Campaign finance report: Nancy Boettger for State Senate Committee
The district's two House members aren't paired, and don't have to move, but both will need to get to know some new constituents.
House District 17
Registration: D 5722, R 7797, N 7353, total 20885, R +2075
Incumbent: Matt Windschitl, R-Missouri Valley
The Legislature's leading Gun Guy won the seat by knocking off Paul Wilderdyke in a 2006 primary challenge from the right. He easily shot down (heh) a couple Democratic challenges, then went unopposed in 2010. So far he's unopposed this year as well.
Windschitl gets a lot of different turf but gains a few hundred Republicans. The old seat had all of Harrison County, most of Monona, and a little of rural north Pottawattamie. This map, he loses all of PottCo and eastern Harrison, but gets all of Monona and Ida, along with bits of rural Woodbury. The net effect is a gain of maybe 600 Republicans.
Campaign finance reports: Win with Windschitl
House District 18
Registration: D 5446, R 6973, N 7080, total 19508, R +1527
Incumbent: Jason Schultz, R-Schleswig; contested Democratic primary
Call this one a sleeper race: Democrats gave Schultz a bye in 2008 and 2010,so there's no general election track record. But this cycle two Democrats have jumped in, so this will be his first general election test.
Schultz won the seat in a contested 2008 primary, where he was seen as the more conservative candidate. (Incumbent Clarence Hoffman had been squeezed out by Iowans For Tax Relief.) The district is centered on Denison and western Crawford County. It used to go north into Ida, now it goes south and gets all of Shelby County. The line changes cost Schultz about 300 Republicans.
Democrat Kasey Friedrichsen offers a symbolically powerful argument against Team Branstad 5.0:
Friedrichsen, 24, worked at an the Denison unemployment office until the office was one of 36 that closed after Gov. Terry Branstad vetoed a legislative allocation to keep the offices open. Schultz, R-Schleswig, voted for a budget to keep the unemployment office but later declined to challenge the governor’s veto.Friedrichsen also has a background dating back to high-school on anti-smoking issues (frankly, not my favorite "progressive" cause). The other Democrat, Dunlap Mayor Bernard Murphy, joined the race in December.
Campaign finance reports: Friends of Jason Schultz, Friedrichsen for State Representative
Original post 5/05/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 8, Iowa House District 15 & 16
Senate District 8
Registration: D 12804, R 10766, N 13437, total 37045, D +2038
Incumbent: Mike Gronstal, D-Council Bluffs
Will this be the Million Dollar Race? If it is, Republican Al Ringgenberg needs to step up his fundraising. The January 19 campaign finance report for Patriots for Col Al Ringgenberg showed just $499 cash on hand. Compare that to the Citizens for Gronstal bank statement of $434,000.
Obviously, Mike's raised that over many years to help other Democratic Senate candidates in tough races. But this cycle he's the guy at the top of the target list, and Omaha TV is expensive. It's not that Gronstal has a bad district -- indeed, it looks to be the least changed seat in the state, identical to his previous turf unless there's some annexation that's smaller than map scale. It's District Draws Itself math: Council Bluffs plus Carter Lake just happens to be the right size and just happened to grow at the right pace. And even with the tactics of my friend redistricting consultant Jerry Mandering, it would be difficult to draw a better Democratic seat in this neighborhood.
So it's not the turf. But as the commander of the only leg of government still in Democratic hands, Governor Gronstal's the GOP's favorite boogeyman. That means one way or another Ringgenberg will get all the money he needs. Still, it's a little odd that he didn't raise more than $5745. You'd think all he'd have to do is say "Hi, I'm Al, I'm running against Mike Gronstal," and the checks would fly in.
House District 15
Registration: D 6826, R 4576, N 6722, total 18147, D +2250
Incumbent: Mark Brandenburg, R-Council Bluffs
House District 16
Registration: D 5978, R 6190, N 6715, total 18898, R +212
Incumbent: Mary Ann Hanusa, R-Council Bluffs; contested Democratic primary
As in Sioux City, we started with two freshmen in one district and one district empty. The difference is here, both are Republicans and one is moving.
Former Bush 43 White House aide Hanusa, last second replacement nominee for Secretary of State in 2006, beat Kurt Hubler in 2010 to hold old House 99, a relatively even open seat, for the Republicans. Brandenburg, a former school board member coming off a 58-42 loss to Gronstal in 2008, knocked off Paul Shomshor in Democratic leaning old 100.
Hanusa and Brandenburg were both unhappy enough to vote no on the map, though they said it was because of the congressional lines that took PottCo out of Steve King's district and placed it in what became the Boswell-Latham mashup. Hanusa announced last July she was staying put and running in 16. Brandenburg, who had some health issues his first session, hinted at retiring, but finally said on February 2 that he was taking the short straw and moving. That made him the last paired-up legislator to announce his plans.
The new line across Council Bluffs puts all of the city's best Democratic precincts into 15, on the northern and western part of town and including that wonderful geographic quirk Carter Lake. Democrat George Yaple will face Brandenburg. I can't find much about Yaple, but the numbers have this seat looking winnable.
New 16 leans slightly Republican, and sees higher turnout in the GOP precincts, but is definitely winnable in the right year. That task is harder as Pottawattamie is historically one of the lowest percentage turnout parts of the state, but with the congressional and state senate race as high priorities for both parties, there could be a ripple effect into the House races.
Two Democrats are challenging Hanusa in House 16. Ron Pierce is director of the Fuller Foundation of Pottawattamie County; to make the long story short Fuller Foundation branched off from Habitat for Humanity but is in pretty much the same line of work. Heidi Guggisberg-Coners is a youth motivational speaker.
Finance reports: Brandenburg for Iowa House, Iowans for Mary Ann Hanusa
Original post 5/04/201111 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
Registration: D 12804, R 10766, N 13437, total 37045, D +2038
Incumbent: Mike Gronstal, D-Council Bluffs
Will this be the Million Dollar Race? If it is, Republican Al Ringgenberg needs to step up his fundraising. The January 19 campaign finance report for Patriots for Col Al Ringgenberg showed just $499 cash on hand. Compare that to the Citizens for Gronstal bank statement of $434,000.
Obviously, Mike's raised that over many years to help other Democratic Senate candidates in tough races. But this cycle he's the guy at the top of the target list, and Omaha TV is expensive. It's not that Gronstal has a bad district -- indeed, it looks to be the least changed seat in the state, identical to his previous turf unless there's some annexation that's smaller than map scale. It's District Draws Itself math: Council Bluffs plus Carter Lake just happens to be the right size and just happened to grow at the right pace. And even with the tactics of my friend redistricting consultant Jerry Mandering, it would be difficult to draw a better Democratic seat in this neighborhood.
So it's not the turf. But as the commander of the only leg of government still in Democratic hands, Governor Gronstal's the GOP's favorite boogeyman. That means one way or another Ringgenberg will get all the money he needs. Still, it's a little odd that he didn't raise more than $5745. You'd think all he'd have to do is say "Hi, I'm Al, I'm running against Mike Gronstal," and the checks would fly in.
House District 15
Registration: D 6826, R 4576, N 6722, total 18147, D +2250
Incumbent: Mark Brandenburg, R-Council Bluffs
House District 16
Registration: D 5978, R 6190, N 6715, total 18898, R +212
Incumbent: Mary Ann Hanusa, R-Council Bluffs; contested Democratic primary
As in Sioux City, we started with two freshmen in one district and one district empty. The difference is here, both are Republicans and one is moving.
Former Bush 43 White House aide Hanusa, last second replacement nominee for Secretary of State in 2006, beat Kurt Hubler in 2010 to hold old House 99, a relatively even open seat, for the Republicans. Brandenburg, a former school board member coming off a 58-42 loss to Gronstal in 2008, knocked off Paul Shomshor in Democratic leaning old 100.
Hanusa and Brandenburg were both unhappy enough to vote no on the map, though they said it was because of the congressional lines that took PottCo out of Steve King's district and placed it in what became the Boswell-Latham mashup. Hanusa announced last July she was staying put and running in 16. Brandenburg, who had some health issues his first session, hinted at retiring, but finally said on February 2 that he was taking the short straw and moving. That made him the last paired-up legislator to announce his plans.
The new line across Council Bluffs puts all of the city's best Democratic precincts into 15, on the northern and western part of town and including that wonderful geographic quirk Carter Lake. Democrat George Yaple will face Brandenburg. I can't find much about Yaple, but the numbers have this seat looking winnable.
New 16 leans slightly Republican, and sees higher turnout in the GOP precincts, but is definitely winnable in the right year. That task is harder as Pottawattamie is historically one of the lowest percentage turnout parts of the state, but with the congressional and state senate race as high priorities for both parties, there could be a ripple effect into the House races.
Two Democrats are challenging Hanusa in House 16. Ron Pierce is director of the Fuller Foundation of Pottawattamie County; to make the long story short Fuller Foundation branched off from Habitat for Humanity but is in pretty much the same line of work. Heidi Guggisberg-Coners is a youth motivational speaker.
Finance reports: Brandenburg for Iowa House, Iowans for Mary Ann Hanusa
Original post 5/04/201111 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 7, Iowa House District 13 & 14
Senate District 7
Registration: D 13202, R 9887, N 12311, total 35446, D +3315
Incumbent: Rick Bertrand, R-Sioux City; holdover seat
It's an all-freshman delegation in the core Sioux City districts, where five legislators retired in 2010.
Republican Rick Bertrand lost a close `08 House race to Democrat Roger Wendt. He switched to the Senate race when Democrat Steve Warnstadt retired in 2010, and beat Democratic activist Rick Mullin by just 222 votes.
The new district changes little: a slight line shift on the south, picking up two precincts and a rural township added on the east, but the party balance stays almost identical.
Bertrand's fate may depend on the cycle, but with an odd numbered seat he holds over till 2014 and gets the lower turnout gubernatorial year, and Woodbury is historically a low turnout county.
Campaign finance report: Team Bertrand
House District 13
Registration: D 6366, R 5324, N 6313, total 18030, D +1042
Incumbents: Chris Hall, D-Sioux City; Jeremy Taylor, R-Sioux City.
The new map splits Sioux City into roughly the same three districts -- east, west, and south -- as 2001, with the line between east and west shifting. Only one precinct moved, and it was Taylor's, drawing him into Hall's district. So it was a My District Just Not My House thing, but the open House 14 is the more Democratic seat. Taylor must figure the numbers favor him in 13; Hall must figure the turf favors him. The result: House 13 will be the only two-incumbent general election House matchup in the state.
Both legislators won by similar, 600ish vote margins in 2010. Taylor also looked like a winner for a few hours on Election Night 2008, until absentees put him 280 votes short of Wes Whitead in old House District 2. He came back to take the seat in 2010 when Whitead retired.
Hall beat Republican Cate Bryan when Democrat Roger Wendt retired in ill health (he passed away soon after).
Taylor for Iowa House showed $22,743 in the bank on January 19; Hall for Iowa reported $23,841. So, evenly matched on seniority, evenly matched on victory margin, and evenly matched on money. Turf and party give the edge to Hall, but both teams will throw a lot at this race.
House District 14
Registration: D 6836, R 4563, N 5998, total 17416, D +2273
No Incumbent
In the open seat, Democrat David Dawson, Taylor's 2010 opponent, announced early. Dawson for Iowa House had $4575 left in the tank after that run and has increased it to $10,682. In February banker Greg Grupp announced for the Republicans. Dawson has the party edge and residual name ID in a district that hasn't changed much, except of course for losing its incumbent.
Original post 5/03/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
Registration: D 13202, R 9887, N 12311, total 35446, D +3315
Incumbent: Rick Bertrand, R-Sioux City; holdover seat
It's an all-freshman delegation in the core Sioux City districts, where five legislators retired in 2010.
Republican Rick Bertrand lost a close `08 House race to Democrat Roger Wendt. He switched to the Senate race when Democrat Steve Warnstadt retired in 2010, and beat Democratic activist Rick Mullin by just 222 votes.
The new district changes little: a slight line shift on the south, picking up two precincts and a rural township added on the east, but the party balance stays almost identical.
Bertrand's fate may depend on the cycle, but with an odd numbered seat he holds over till 2014 and gets the lower turnout gubernatorial year, and Woodbury is historically a low turnout county.
Campaign finance report: Team Bertrand
House District 13
Registration: D 6366, R 5324, N 6313, total 18030, D +1042
Incumbents: Chris Hall, D-Sioux City; Jeremy Taylor, R-Sioux City.
The new map splits Sioux City into roughly the same three districts -- east, west, and south -- as 2001, with the line between east and west shifting. Only one precinct moved, and it was Taylor's, drawing him into Hall's district. So it was a My District Just Not My House thing, but the open House 14 is the more Democratic seat. Taylor must figure the numbers favor him in 13; Hall must figure the turf favors him. The result: House 13 will be the only two-incumbent general election House matchup in the state.
Both legislators won by similar, 600ish vote margins in 2010. Taylor also looked like a winner for a few hours on Election Night 2008, until absentees put him 280 votes short of Wes Whitead in old House District 2. He came back to take the seat in 2010 when Whitead retired.
Hall beat Republican Cate Bryan when Democrat Roger Wendt retired in ill health (he passed away soon after).
Taylor for Iowa House showed $22,743 in the bank on January 19; Hall for Iowa reported $23,841. So, evenly matched on seniority, evenly matched on victory margin, and evenly matched on money. Turf and party give the edge to Hall, but both teams will throw a lot at this race.
House District 14
Registration: D 6836, R 4563, N 5998, total 17416, D +2273
No Incumbent
In the open seat, Democrat David Dawson, Taylor's 2010 opponent, announced early. Dawson for Iowa House had $4575 left in the tank after that run and has increased it to $10,682. In February banker Greg Grupp announced for the Republicans. Dawson has the party edge and residual name ID in a district that hasn't changed much, except of course for losing its incumbent.
Original post 5/03/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 6, Iowa House District 11 & 12
Senate District 6
Registration: D 11228, R 13883, N 17216, total 42354, R +2655
Open Seat (Steve Kettering, R-Lake View, retiring) Contested Republican primary
I was a little surprised by Kettering's retirement, in part because the 2.5 term incumbent probably got the least changed rural district in the state. The seat keeps Buena Vista, Sac, and Carroll counties intact and also has pretty much the same chunk of eastern Crawford. Tiny Audubon County is added.
Democrat Mary Bruner of Carroll got in early and drew positive press. The combination of a solid candidate and family ties -- Mike Gronstal is a cousin -- puts this seemingly unlikely western Iowa turf on the possible pickup list.
Republicans reportedly struggled for a candidate in the wake of Kettering's retirement. Now they have three: Carroll's newly elected mayor, Adam Schweers, Crawford County supervisor Mark Segebart, and Sac County sheriff's deputy Matthew Biede (he has the relatively high-profile job of K9 officer). If friends and neighbors becomes a factor, Carroll County is about twice the population of Sac. But the two together are only half the district.
The House lines change a bit within the Senate district, to the mutual benefit of the two opposite-party incumbents.
House District 11
Registration: D 4643, R 7477, N 7924, total 20049, R +2834
Incumbent: Gary Worthan, R-Storm Lake
Worthan has been comfortable since winning a December 2006 special, pulling 66% in 2008 and 74% in 2010 year. In the new map he gains a chunk of Sac and about 500 Republicans, to give him some of the cleanest House lines in the state: exactly Sac and Buena Vista counties, no more, no less. No Democratic names yet.
Gary Worthan for Iowa House finance reports
House District 12
Registration: D 6585, R 6406, N 9292, total 22305, D +179
Incumbent: Dan Muhlbauer, D-Manning
How does a late-starting replacement candidate score the only Democratic gain of the horrible, horrible 2010 cycle?
First, your five term nice guy Republican incumbent, Rod Roberts, runs a long-shot race for governor. Then Republicans nominate "the worst candidate ever," Daniel Dirkx, who clearly has absolutely no idea what the job entails. Then the Democratic nominee steps down for some reason, and you're there: a county supervisor whose dad served in the legislature before you. It's such a good thing that even leading Republicans in Carroll endorse you and you win by a whopping 1900 votes.
This is how Dan Muhlbauer arrived in the legislature. He's carved a cautious course, defecting from the party on a few high profile votes. He voted with the GOP on marriage equality and nuclear power votes, and was the only Democrat to support Kim Pearson's total abortion ban bill that even most Republicans opposed.
Daniel Muhlbauer for State Representative has $10,265 of mostly PAC money in the bank. His opponent, Carroll Republican Barney Bornhoft, joined the race right at the filing deadline. Carroll County ambulance director and tea partier Bill Fish discussed running but didn't follow through.
The line changes turn a slim Republican registration edge into a slim Democratic edge. Still swingy, but better. Carroll County still dominates the district. Muhlbauer also keeps a more or less the same chunk of a few townships in western Crawford, up to but not including Denison. He drops the small piece of Sac (which he lost to Dirkx) to Worthan and instead gets all of Audubon County. The changes turn a 195 Republican Registration edge into an equally slim Democratic edge.
Original post 5/02/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
Registration: D 11228, R 13883, N 17216, total 42354, R +2655
Open Seat (Steve Kettering, R-Lake View, retiring) Contested Republican primary
I was a little surprised by Kettering's retirement, in part because the 2.5 term incumbent probably got the least changed rural district in the state. The seat keeps Buena Vista, Sac, and Carroll counties intact and also has pretty much the same chunk of eastern Crawford. Tiny Audubon County is added.
Democrat Mary Bruner of Carroll got in early and drew positive press. The combination of a solid candidate and family ties -- Mike Gronstal is a cousin -- puts this seemingly unlikely western Iowa turf on the possible pickup list.
Republicans reportedly struggled for a candidate in the wake of Kettering's retirement. Now they have three: Carroll's newly elected mayor, Adam Schweers, Crawford County supervisor Mark Segebart, and Sac County sheriff's deputy Matthew Biede (he has the relatively high-profile job of K9 officer). If friends and neighbors becomes a factor, Carroll County is about twice the population of Sac. But the two together are only half the district.
The House lines change a bit within the Senate district, to the mutual benefit of the two opposite-party incumbents.
House District 11
Registration: D 4643, R 7477, N 7924, total 20049, R +2834
Incumbent: Gary Worthan, R-Storm Lake
Worthan has been comfortable since winning a December 2006 special, pulling 66% in 2008 and 74% in 2010 year. In the new map he gains a chunk of Sac and about 500 Republicans, to give him some of the cleanest House lines in the state: exactly Sac and Buena Vista counties, no more, no less. No Democratic names yet.
Gary Worthan for Iowa House finance reports
House District 12
Registration: D 6585, R 6406, N 9292, total 22305, D +179
Incumbent: Dan Muhlbauer, D-Manning
How does a late-starting replacement candidate score the only Democratic gain of the horrible, horrible 2010 cycle?
First, your five term nice guy Republican incumbent, Rod Roberts, runs a long-shot race for governor. Then Republicans nominate "the worst candidate ever," Daniel Dirkx, who clearly has absolutely no idea what the job entails. Then the Democratic nominee steps down for some reason, and you're there: a county supervisor whose dad served in the legislature before you. It's such a good thing that even leading Republicans in Carroll endorse you and you win by a whopping 1900 votes.
This is how Dan Muhlbauer arrived in the legislature. He's carved a cautious course, defecting from the party on a few high profile votes. He voted with the GOP on marriage equality and nuclear power votes, and was the only Democrat to support Kim Pearson's total abortion ban bill that even most Republicans opposed.
Daniel Muhlbauer for State Representative has $10,265 of mostly PAC money in the bank. His opponent, Carroll Republican Barney Bornhoft, joined the race right at the filing deadline. Carroll County ambulance director and tea partier Bill Fish discussed running but didn't follow through.
The line changes turn a slim Republican registration edge into a slim Democratic edge. Still swingy, but better. Carroll County still dominates the district. Muhlbauer also keeps a more or less the same chunk of a few townships in western Crawford, up to but not including Denison. He drops the small piece of Sac (which he lost to Dirkx) to Worthan and instead gets all of Audubon County. The changes turn a 195 Republican Registration edge into an equally slim Democratic edge.
Original post 5/02/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 5, Iowa House District 9 & 10
Senate District 5
Registration: D 12757, R 13356, N 16515, total 42659, R +599
Incumbent: Daryl Beall, D-Ft. Dodge; holdover seat
Beall won a third term in 2010 in old district 25 with 54%. Beall loses about 900 Democrats and gets a slightly Republican district that votes on the lower turnout gubernatorial cycle. The new seat keeps Ft. Dodge and Calhoun County but loses Greene County to the south and instead goes north into Pocahontas and Humboldt. Beall has till 2014 to get to know
those new constituents.
People for Beall finance reports
The Senate district is polarized between a Democratic half and an equally GOP part.
House District 9
Registration: D 7645, R 5535, N 7081, total 20278, D +2110
Incumbent: Helen Miller, D-Ft. Dodge; rematch of 2010 race
This is what I call The District Draws Itself: Iowa law requires that cities and counties be kept whole whenever possible. An ideal House District size is 30,538, and when you have a city or county just short of that size, it dominates whatever else is combined with it. The Ft. Dodge census population is 25,206, so that pretty much settles things. Miller keeps her entire old district, which she's held since 2002, and adds three townships to balance the population and maintain roughly the same Democratic edge.
Miller won with a surprisingly close 52% last time in one of those Some Dude near-miss races that was on nobody's radar. Miller had won easily since her first win in 2002, with a typical 60% in 2008. Yet Matt Alcazar, a tea partier who had started out running as an independent before switching to the GOP line, almost pulled it off in the zeitgeist that was 2010.
With a more than 2000 registration edge for the Democrats, this isn't completely out of reach but Alcazar's 2010 performance is probably close to the high water mark.
House District 10
Registration: D 5112, R 7821, N 9434, total 22381, R +2709
Incumbents: Tom Shaw, R-Laurens (Dave Tjepkes, R-Gowrie, retiring); Primary challenge
Tea partier Tom Shaw, who first announced his 2010 run as an independent, won an epic primary and beat Stephen Richards, the main-chance doctor who had fallen only 42 votes short of conservaDem Dolores Mertz in 2008. Shaw then took over with ease in the general as Mertz retired.
Shaw got paired up with five-term leadership favorite Dave Tjepkes, who didn't announce his retirement till January 10. Shaw had a reputation for working across party lines that may have actually disadvantaged him; there were rumors of a primary challenge even before Map Day.
So he's gone, but there's still going to be a primary here. Former University of Iowa student government president Maison Bleam announced his candidacy as "a different style of principled constitutional conservative." That's a polite way of saying that Shaw's taken the hard-right approach along with fellow freshmen Glen Massie and Kim Pearson.
Bleam is also playing the age card; it's interesting to me that conservatives, at this level of office, have generally been more willing to vote for young people and that they generally do a far better job of subsidizing their young ones -- check those resume bullet points on Bleam -- than my team. Still, this race seems like a heavy lift against an incumbent who won two hard-fought 2010 races and held off Tjepkes.
Shaw keeps his native Pocahontas County and Humboldt, but loses the city of Algona and southern Kossuth. He picks up Calhoun and part of rural Webster from Tjepkes.
No Democratic names here yet; their best shot was probably with the open seat last cycle.
Campaign finance report: Committee to Elect Tom Shaw
Original post 4/29/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
Registration: D 12757, R 13356, N 16515, total 42659, R +599
Incumbent: Daryl Beall, D-Ft. Dodge; holdover seat
Beall won a third term in 2010 in old district 25 with 54%. Beall loses about 900 Democrats and gets a slightly Republican district that votes on the lower turnout gubernatorial cycle. The new seat keeps Ft. Dodge and Calhoun County but loses Greene County to the south and instead goes north into Pocahontas and Humboldt. Beall has till 2014 to get to know
those new constituents.
People for Beall finance reports
The Senate district is polarized between a Democratic half and an equally GOP part.
House District 9
Registration: D 7645, R 5535, N 7081, total 20278, D +2110
Incumbent: Helen Miller, D-Ft. Dodge; rematch of 2010 race
This is what I call The District Draws Itself: Iowa law requires that cities and counties be kept whole whenever possible. An ideal House District size is 30,538, and when you have a city or county just short of that size, it dominates whatever else is combined with it. The Ft. Dodge census population is 25,206, so that pretty much settles things. Miller keeps her entire old district, which she's held since 2002, and adds three townships to balance the population and maintain roughly the same Democratic edge.
Miller won with a surprisingly close 52% last time in one of those Some Dude near-miss races that was on nobody's radar. Miller had won easily since her first win in 2002, with a typical 60% in 2008. Yet Matt Alcazar, a tea partier who had started out running as an independent before switching to the GOP line, almost pulled it off in the zeitgeist that was 2010.
With a more than 2000 registration edge for the Democrats, this isn't completely out of reach but Alcazar's 2010 performance is probably close to the high water mark.
House District 10
Registration: D 5112, R 7821, N 9434, total 22381, R +2709
Incumbents: Tom Shaw, R-Laurens (Dave Tjepkes, R-Gowrie, retiring); Primary challenge
Tea partier Tom Shaw, who first announced his 2010 run as an independent, won an epic primary and beat Stephen Richards, the main-chance doctor who had fallen only 42 votes short of conservaDem Dolores Mertz in 2008. Shaw then took over with ease in the general as Mertz retired.
Shaw got paired up with five-term leadership favorite Dave Tjepkes, who didn't announce his retirement till January 10. Shaw had a reputation for working across party lines that may have actually disadvantaged him; there were rumors of a primary challenge even before Map Day.
So he's gone, but there's still going to be a primary here. Former University of Iowa student government president Maison Bleam announced his candidacy as "a different style of principled constitutional conservative." That's a polite way of saying that Shaw's taken the hard-right approach along with fellow freshmen Glen Massie and Kim Pearson.
Bleam is also playing the age card; it's interesting to me that conservatives, at this level of office, have generally been more willing to vote for young people and that they generally do a far better job of subsidizing their young ones -- check those resume bullet points on Bleam -- than my team. Still, this race seems like a heavy lift against an incumbent who won two hard-fought 2010 races and held off Tjepkes.
Shaw keeps his native Pocahontas County and Humboldt, but loses the city of Algona and southern Kossuth. He picks up Calhoun and part of rural Webster from Tjepkes.
No Democratic names here yet; their best shot was probably with the open seat last cycle.
Campaign finance report: Committee to Elect Tom Shaw
Original post 4/29/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
District Of The Day Reboot: Iowa Senate District 4, Iowa House District 7 & 8
Senate District 4
Registration: D 12120, R 15462, N 17680, total 45274, R +3342
No Incumbent; contested Republican primary
Well, this one hasn't turned out at all like I thought. We've got a former Senator making a comeback, sure--but not the one we expected.
Everyone assumed from Map Day forward that this was Stew Iverson's path back to the Senate. Instead, we have an unlikely comeback from Jim Black, who served just one session, 1997, before abruptly resigning "citing family troubles." Recently Black said that the resignation was part of a court agreement in his divorce, in order to keep custody of his children. Iverson is Black's campaign chair.
The turf is actually quite similar to Black's old seat. It covers five whole counties, and four are the same: Kossuth, Winnebago, Hancock and Wright. Emmett replaces Humboldt. No one these counties dominates the district.
Black faces a primary against Tea partier Dennis Guth, who has a distinctive rhetorical flair but, surprisingly, has outraised Black. Dennis Guth for Senate reported $7435 cash on hand on January 19, while Jim Black for Iowa Senate Committee had just $3908, and more than half of that is from the candidate. (Thurman Gaskill, who took over for Black in the 1997 Senate special and served through 2008, chipped in $100 for Black.)
By the numbers, the edge goes to the GOP. Yet Democrats have a solid recruit in Bob Jennings of Algona, information director for Algona Municipal Utilities, ex-Chamber of Commerce chair, and a former news director for KLGA radio in Algona. But Jennings' committee had just $275 in the bank on the January 19 report date.
House District 7
Registration: D 6632, R 6799, N 9443, total 22882, R +167
Incumbent: John Wittneben, D-Estherville; contested Republican primary
Wittneben was one of the Dem's few bright spots in 2010, holding an open lean-Democratic district by just 32 votes when Marcy Frevert retired. (It helped that Republicans scuttled their own candidate, Lannie Miller.) But the new district loses 1200 Democrats to become a swing seat. Wittneben loses the Frevert base of Palo Alto but keeps his own Emmet County base and rural north Kossuth. But significantly, he adds the city of Algona.
At least two Republicans see an opportunity here. Tedd Gassman has been Winnebago County GOP chair and a school board member. Mark Frakes of Forest City is a West Point grad and former Army helicopter pilot. The Committee to Elect Mark Frakes has $2008 in the bank; Gassman got a later start and had just opened an account with $25 at the January 19 report deadline. Wittneben for State Representative had $2526 on hand, but incumbent protection is always the highest priority for a party, so he'll get help from Des Moines when the time comes.
House District 8
Registration: D 5488, R 8663, N 8237, total 22392, R +3175
Incumbents: Henry Rayhons, R-Garner (Linda Upmeyer, R-Garner moving, Stew Iverson, R-Clarion, retiring) - primary challenge
Who would have thought that, when he got drawn together with the House majority leader and the former Senate GOP leader in the state's only redistricting triple-up, that 75 year old Henry Rayhons would be the one left standing in this district? Or that the seat might end up in the hands of a primary challenger?
This seat is centered on Hancock County, mutual home base for both Rayhons and Upmeyer. Rayhons' old turf went to the east in Franklin and picked up the Clear Lake part of Cerro Gordo, which is where Upmeyer is moving to run in open House 54. Rayhons' new seat instead goes south to Iverson's Wright County base and gets southern and western Kossuth, but not the city of Algona.
But Rayhons isn't home free. No Democrats yet, but he's got a primary challenger, Rev. Bob Dishman.
Fundraising has started slow but Dishman for State House has more cash on hand, $744, than Rayhons for Representative's $348; Rayhons has raised more and spent more.
Original post 4/28/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
Registration: D 12120, R 15462, N 17680, total 45274, R +3342
No Incumbent; contested Republican primary
Well, this one hasn't turned out at all like I thought. We've got a former Senator making a comeback, sure--but not the one we expected.
Everyone assumed from Map Day forward that this was Stew Iverson's path back to the Senate. Instead, we have an unlikely comeback from Jim Black, who served just one session, 1997, before abruptly resigning "citing family troubles." Recently Black said that the resignation was part of a court agreement in his divorce, in order to keep custody of his children. Iverson is Black's campaign chair.
The turf is actually quite similar to Black's old seat. It covers five whole counties, and four are the same: Kossuth, Winnebago, Hancock and Wright. Emmett replaces Humboldt. No one these counties dominates the district.
Black faces a primary against Tea partier Dennis Guth, who has a distinctive rhetorical flair but, surprisingly, has outraised Black. Dennis Guth for Senate reported $7435 cash on hand on January 19, while Jim Black for Iowa Senate Committee had just $3908, and more than half of that is from the candidate. (Thurman Gaskill, who took over for Black in the 1997 Senate special and served through 2008, chipped in $100 for Black.)
By the numbers, the edge goes to the GOP. Yet Democrats have a solid recruit in Bob Jennings of Algona, information director for Algona Municipal Utilities, ex-Chamber of Commerce chair, and a former news director for KLGA radio in Algona. But Jennings' committee had just $275 in the bank on the January 19 report date.
House District 7
Registration: D 6632, R 6799, N 9443, total 22882, R +167
Incumbent: John Wittneben, D-Estherville; contested Republican primary
Wittneben was one of the Dem's few bright spots in 2010, holding an open lean-Democratic district by just 32 votes when Marcy Frevert retired. (It helped that Republicans scuttled their own candidate, Lannie Miller.) But the new district loses 1200 Democrats to become a swing seat. Wittneben loses the Frevert base of Palo Alto but keeps his own Emmet County base and rural north Kossuth. But significantly, he adds the city of Algona.
At least two Republicans see an opportunity here. Tedd Gassman has been Winnebago County GOP chair and a school board member. Mark Frakes of Forest City is a West Point grad and former Army helicopter pilot. The Committee to Elect Mark Frakes has $2008 in the bank; Gassman got a later start and had just opened an account with $25 at the January 19 report deadline. Wittneben for State Representative had $2526 on hand, but incumbent protection is always the highest priority for a party, so he'll get help from Des Moines when the time comes.
House District 8
Registration: D 5488, R 8663, N 8237, total 22392, R +3175
Incumbents: Henry Rayhons, R-Garner (Linda Upmeyer, R-Garner moving, Stew Iverson, R-Clarion, retiring) - primary challenge
Who would have thought that, when he got drawn together with the House majority leader and the former Senate GOP leader in the state's only redistricting triple-up, that 75 year old Henry Rayhons would be the one left standing in this district? Or that the seat might end up in the hands of a primary challenger?
This seat is centered on Hancock County, mutual home base for both Rayhons and Upmeyer. Rayhons' old turf went to the east in Franklin and picked up the Clear Lake part of Cerro Gordo, which is where Upmeyer is moving to run in open House 54. Rayhons' new seat instead goes south to Iverson's Wright County base and gets southern and western Kossuth, but not the city of Algona.
But Rayhons isn't home free. No Democrats yet, but he's got a primary challenger, Rev. Bob Dishman.
"The goal should be a smaller, more efficient government and that's what I intend to accomplish," said Dishman, pastor of Park Church of Christ in Goldfield. He said he will focus on conservative values that include supporting pro-life issues and traditional marriage in Iowa.And Rayhons, while a pretty conservative guy, was on the "wrong" side of that 2011 vote I use for my scorecard, Pearson's Total Abortion Ban.
Fundraising has started slow but Dishman for State House has more cash on hand, $744, than Rayhons for Representative's $348; Rayhons has raised more and spent more.
Original post 4/28/2011 Statewide Map: Front | Back (with City Insets) | Old Senate, House
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