With District of the Day in the home stretch it's inevitable that I'll be turning more attention to the presidential race. For today we'le got the national folks weighing in...
This year, with only Republican caucuses to ponder, I offer a more fundamental argument: No GOP nominee has ever received any significant boost from these caucuses.Thus Greenfield stumbles, unintentionally, onto a key point: the Iowa Republican caucuses," as in the magic number that gets reported on caucus night, are in fact just a straw poll with no direct connection to the national delegate count.
You can’t make that argument as far as Democrats are concerned... (Carter, Kerry, Obama details that Iowans are familiar with) By using an impossibly complicated formula to assign delegates, rather than the straw poll used by the GOP, Democrats make a mockery of the one-person-one-vote principle.
And I'll offer another absolute: No candidate has ever won a nomination with a full Screw Iowa strategy. McCain in `08 started out playing here and showed up a little at the end, but in 2000 he offered, almost verbatim, the same anti-ethanol rationale Huntsman is giving. On the Dem side you have Wes Clark and Joe Lieberman in 2004 and Al Gore in 1988. I suppose you could make a case that Bill Clinton was nominated with no Iowa effort, but Tom Harkin's candidacy gives that whole cycle an asterisk in my book.
Unnamed sources told the Associated Press that Gingrich’s campaign is in debt to the tune of over $1 million. If that is the case it easy to understand why essentially all of Gingrich’s campaign staff quit at the same time. The immense amount of debt could also explain why Gingrich has shown no sign of dropping out of the race. With that amount of debt, it would be very difficult to raise that type of money without still being a candidate.I heard a similar agrument made about John McCain in the Sun Setting on the Straight Talk Express era, though in his case the theory was he was hanging on till the first of the year when federal matching funds were distributed. And the roots of the problem were similar: a phenomenal burn rate where the money gets spent faster than it's raised.
It seems to me that Gingrich is staying in the race to rebuild his credibility as the idea man of the Republican Party while also trying to raise enough money to pay off his debts.
I wish Huntsman luck in this noble pursuit, but the high road almost always leads to political oblivion. For Huntsman to maintain his course all the way to the Republican presidential nomination would turn politics on its head. More likely, he will join other decent men — Richard Lugar, Orrin Hatch — whose presidential campaigns were quickly forgotten.
The obvious parallel is not Henry Cabot Lodge, LBJ’s ambassador to Vietnam, who won the 1964 New Hampshire primary on a write-in vote. Rather it is Wesley Clark, who pole-vaulted into the 2004 Democratic race based on elite dissatisfaction with the other contenders and never found a way to offer voters more than his star-spangled resume.One sure thing: with the full Screw Iowa strategery, Huntsman's got Jeff Greenfield's vote.
The University of Iowa campus gets split; under the old map it was almost all in Mary Mascher's district. Mascher won her first term in 1994 and last saw Republican opposition in 1996. There was a self-starter Some Dude independent in 2008.
Unless your name is Vilsack, Henry County is GOP territory. Democrats have made a couple feints at serious runs since Dave Heaton went to the House in 1994, but haven't come close. Ron Fedler was supposed to be a sleeper in 2008 but lost by a couple thousand votes; Heaton more than doubled him in the 2010 rematch.
Mark Chelgren, whose claim to fame was his party hardy RAGBRAI persona, was the fluke of the year, emerging from a recount with a ten vote win over Bloomfield Democrat Keith Kreiman. He rolled up the margin in three whole rural counties: Appanoose, Davis, and Wayne. Chelgren has cut an abrasive profile in his first session, but with Democrats in Senate control he's been noticed less that the House Crazy Caucus of Pearson, Massie and Shaw.
The District Draws Itself: At 25,023, the city of Ottumwa is 82% of the size of a House district. Minor changes around the edges, of course. Instead of getting the townships south and west of the city, the district goes east to the county line, picking up Agency, Eldon, and the American Gothic house.
The Davis County based Swaim was first elected in 2002 in old House 94, which was Davis, Appanoose and Wayne counties. In redistricting, he was paired with Curt Hanson of Fairfield in new 82.
Reilly gained this seat - if you can even call it "this" seat - by 900 votes from Amana-based Republican Neal Schuerer, and won a solid re-elect in the Democratic wave of 2008.
Registration: D 7401, R 4856, N 7276, total 19552, D+ 2545
When Greiner left the House seat in 2008, her chosen successor was young Republican Jarad Klein. But the 2008 wave crested high enough to elect Democrat Larry Marek by 157 votes. Marek had a good biographical fit for the district, but was a little less of a fit for the House Democrats, and he aligned with the Six Pack of conservaDems. He was largely left to fend for himself at re-election time, even as the party was going all out for his senator, Becky Schmitz, on the same turf. The rematch coincided with the 2010 counter-wave and Klein won handily.
Clean, easy to comprehend lines in Senate 38: Benton, Iowa, Poweshiek. Three whole counties. That's a big move south for Benton-based Senate freshman Tim Kapucian. The old district had just a bit of Iowa (Marengo to be exact) then went west and north to take in most of Tama and all of Grundy.
The old districts went vertical. Eastern Poweshiek County and most of Iowa County (plus the leftovers of southeast Tama County) were in old House 76, represented by Keokuk County based Betty DeBoef. Old 75 had most of the population of Poweshiek: Grinnell and Montezuma. That was a hot swing seat for 
Registration: D 14731, R 9499, N 13327, total 37,613, D + 5232
Kaufmannn took over for Dan Boddicker in 2004 and has risen quickly in House GOP leadership. The old seat was almost dead-even with a Democratic registration edge of 29 as of this April. But he's been lucky with opponents. A well-funded 2006 race netted just 37%; a 2008 self-starter quit the race but neglected to take her name off the ballot, and a late-starting Dem polled just 27% in 2010 (worse than Name On The Ballot did in 2008).
Tama County has been the core of a district for a few maps, but always seems to get partnered toward a different compass point. Horbach won his first term by nine (!) votes over Democrat Bill Brand in 1998. (If I remember right, election night had Horbach ahead by two.) That district ran east into Benton County. Four years later, Horbach's turf shifted northwest as the district gained all of Grundy (and lost the southeast corner of Tama County around Chelsea). This decade Tama County is whole again, but gets sent west to pick up all of Marshall County south and west of Marshalltown. (This probably means a Tama-Poweshiek district in 2021 since every other direction has been done.) It also adds what looks like the leftovers of Black Hawk County: two rural townships and La Porte City. "The long skinny shape of Big Creek Township gives this district a little panhandle, which I like," said redistricting consultant Jerry Mandering.
We used to get our Taylors mixed up on the west side of Cedar Rapids, when Dick and Todd had adjacent districts. Todd was the only Taylor for the 2010 session, then was joined by Republican Jeremy of Sioux City this year. (The Olson Caucus remains the legislature's largest with Democrats Rick and Tyler and Republican Steve; rumor is they refuse to let Jo Oldson join.
Several names repeat themselves in different races on the east side of Cedar Rapids.
Registration: D 8953, R 4788, N 6354, total 20131, D+ 4165
Schoenjahn was first elected in 2004 with 53% in an open seat race when two term Republican Kitty Rehberg stepped down. He scored an easy 2008 re-elect with 63%.
Registration: D 6189, R 4650, N 7993, total 18841, D +1539
Cedar Falls may be UNI-ted behind the Panthers, but it's closely divided politically. A lot of tight races here the last few years, and with the lines not changing much we should see more squeakers.
The only two Democrat Senate pair. Basically, freshman Tod Bowman got drawn into Tom Hancock's district.
Under the old lines, Lukan had a break-even district. He took over the seat in 2002. One-term Democrat Andra Atteberry had been kind of a fluke-winner in 2000, defeating foul-mouth freshman Republican Mike Jager, and she got burned by the 2001 map. Lukan beat her with 65%, one of the bigger wins on record against a non-scandalized incumbent, and has settled in to log a decade of tenure and rise into leadership at age 32, with comfortable wins and a free ride in 2010.
